It'd be pretty funny if the media hate-fest backfired.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:In mid-October, 2008, Gallup had Romney up 50% to Obama's 46% among likely voters.

So, yeah, maybe these polls are horseshit.

hmmm, that's interesting, considering Romney was the nominee in 2012

Whoops! I meant 2012.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/158048/romney-obama-among-likely-voters.aspx

People put way too much stock in polls, IMO.
In just over 3 weeks, we’ll know the results.
Be patient.

Anonymous wrote:In mid-October, 2008, Gallup had Romney up 50% to Obama's 46% among likely voters.

So, yeah, maybe these polls are horseshit.

hmmm, that's interesting, considering Romney was the nominee in 2012

In mid-October, 2008, Gallup had Romney up 50% to Obama's 46% among likely voters.

So, yeah, maybe these polls are horseshit.

I understand it- lots of people are f-ing stupid.

fivethirtyeight, which averages and weights the polls, has her up about 6 or 7 points.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-where-the-race-stands-with-three-weeks-to-go/

Each poll bases its pool of respondents on assumptions about the makeup of the eventual vote. I guess they have different assumptions. Or perhaps, since the confidence interval is generally at the 95% level, perhaps one of these polls is in the 5% that miss the mark.

I don't understand it either.

Anonymous wrote:I'm not kidding - the prospect of a trump win makes me contemplate slitting my wrists.

Of course, these are national numbers. Not state by state, which is how the presidency is won.

I would have to dig deeper as to why this poll shows 4 points and another shows 11, though. Something is off.

No poll will be right until their reputation is riding on accuracy - that will be close to the election.

Now consider that even if Hillary wins through electoral, if the popular vote is close, i.e. 53/47 or something similar, that means a whole hell of a lot of people feel strongly about the issues Trump promotes.

Depends on the poll. She is up 11 in the NBC/WSJ poll:

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/clinton-holds-11-point-national-lead-over-trump-nbc-wsj-n666986

And up 7 in the Fox poll:

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/10/14/fox-news-poll-clinton-leads-trump-by-7-points.html

I'm not kidding - the prospect of a trump win makes me contemplate slitting my wrists.

Of course, these are national numbers. Not state by state, which is how the presidency is won.

I would have to dig deeper as to why this poll shows 4 points and another shows 11, though. Something is off.

My theory: She is not out campaigning. She is coasting. (Or hiding.)

Anonymous wrote:After everything that has come out in the past week(s), the race is still close?

"Clinton leads Trump by 47-43 percent among likely voters, a slight edge given the survey’s four-percentage-point error margin."

What needs to happen to open up that lead? Evidence of murder?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/washington-post-abc-news-poll-clinton-holds-four-point-lead-in-aftermath-of-trump-tape/2016/10/15/c31969a4-9231-11e6-9c52-0b10449e33c4_story.html?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_poll-1205am%3Ahomepage%2Fstory

Sssshhh. You just gave away the Hillary campaign's November surprise.....

After everything that has come out in the past week(s), the race is still close?

"Clinton leads Trump by 47-43 percent among likely voters, a slight edge given the survey’s four-percentage-point error margin."

What needs to happen to open up that lead? Evidence of murder?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/washington-post-abc-news-poll-clinton-holds-four-point-lead-in-aftermath-of-trump-tape/2016/10/15/c31969a4-9231-11e6-9c52-0b10449e33c4_story.html?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_poll-1205am%3Ahomepage%2Fstory