It does vary year to year but -- if you want a DCI feeder charter (which many people do - you can debate the merits of that on another thread) -- PK4 is typically an easier year than PS3.

Both MV and YY usually add a new classroom of kids in PK4. for both of these schools, I believe PS3 is usually just for siblings, with a few non-sibs added so that they can round up to the size of a full classroom (for ex: if there are 22 kids/class and 40 siblings, then 4 non-sibs would get in at PS3). At PK4, they'd add another 22 kids and almost all of them would be non-siblings. Plus, the year I did the PS3 lottery, only half as many people entered the MV lottery for PK4. So there are many more slots (perhaps ten times as many slots) and half as many people applying. So yes, it can be much easier to get in at PK4.

For other schools, like IT, if they don't add a classroom at PK4, it may be equally hard both years.

Here is some actual data

https://ms-dc.s3.amazonaws.com/docs/2016-lottery-applications-and-seats-offered.pdf

the top charters might have 30 spaces for PK3 and 5 spaces for PK4, so no its actually way way worse.

It's pure luck. No one wants to think about it in these terms because you feel like you have ZERO control. Well, you really have ZERO control. We finally got into K but it was by sheer luck. We had crappy lottery draw but K spots for our top pick moved even though the waitlist for the other grades barely budged. Just keep trying is all you can do.

Anonymous wrote:aggregate doesn't matter so much - it's always an individual story. we were shut out at pk3 (pre common lottery); hit a great school at pk4; didn't play k; became disenchanted with great school (can't address teasing though classroom was great) and struck out at 1st.

The only thing that you can reliably count on is increasing your odds by having more than one kid play. But even that is no sure bet (my first year with 2 - 1st grader and pk3 - and got a big nada).

Bolded for emphasis. There are no bonus points in the lottery for striking out the year before. We had 3 poor draws - as in bottom 25% - three years in a row. The only thing that saved us from having to move the last year was getting in deep off the waitlist at a new school because parents are more hesitant to try new schools past preschool.

aggregate doesn't matter so much - it's always an individual story. we were shut out at pk3 (pre common lottery); hit a great school at pk4; didn't play k; became disenchanted with great school (can't address teasing though classroom was great) and struck out at 1st.

The only thing that you can reliably count on is increasing your odds by having more than one kid play. But even that is no sure bet (my first year with 2 - 1st grader and pk3 - and got a big nada).

Anonymous wrote:There are fewer spots but fewer people applying. Whether it's easier as a whole doesn't matter, really, as you should apply every year that you don't want to stay at/don't already have a public school. If you get lottery #1, then it's easy for you. And someone's going to get lottery #1.

This. We did terrible our first year, and much, much better our second

There are fewer spots but fewer people applying. Whether it's easier as a whole doesn't matter, really, as you should apply every year that you don't want to stay at/don't already have a public school. If you get lottery #1, then it's easy for you. And someone's going to get lottery #1.

I could see it being a tiny bit easier. The class size thing, plus people are more likely to move out of DC as their kids get older. So if a family at a middling school had a 6yo and a 4yo and decided to bail for the sake of the 6yo, that would open up a pk4 spot.

Anonymous wrote:I don't think it's daft. Some schools offer pk4 but not pk3, so that adds seats. Yu ying adds a whole classroom. And the class size is bigger. And if people generally move to the suburbs as their kids get older, that would have an impact too.

The schools that don't offer PK3 don't tend to have space for OOB kids and if they do, it's not going to be more spaces than PK3 at other schools. It's not like suddenly there's a huge surplus of seats.

OP, it does depend on the schools. The increase in class sizes helps, and some schools do add a classroom. Generally, though, PK3 is the entry year, and it's easiest to lottery into somewhere then.

I don't think it's daft. Some schools offer pk4 but not pk3, so that adds seats. Yu ying adds a whole classroom. And the class size is bigger. And if people generally move to the suburbs as their kids get older, that would have an impact too.

PK4 is NOT easier but K can be at schools where some kids end up attending only for PK before heading to their JKLM or similar IB.

PK4 is not easier but K is because a lot of kids go to their zoned schools and leave charter school spaces open.

LOL ARE YOU DAFT? PK4 is much harder at most schools because most schools only add a few additional spots and kids from PK3 just roll over into the next class. Most of the additional spots are taking by siblings or other people with preference. In demand charters are virtually impossible beyond PK3.

I have heard people say PK4 is an easier lottery year than PK3, but has anyone actually done the math to see if that's true? And does it get easier or harder for kindergarten? We are thinking of moving but wondering exactly when it makes sense to pull the trigger. Happy enough at our Title I IB for a few years, middle school is the real issue. TIA!