Why would they? Look at all the people just on this forum alone that are upset they didn't get into a school that costs $40,000 a year, and willing to adjust their whole lifestyle to pay for it.

Anonymous wrote:No.

Why? There are enough parents in the DC area with high enough incomes and a competitive spirit to pay the $50K cost without feeling it.

The less competitive schools may have trouble filling their classes, though, as the price creeps up every year. Some of the lesser schools will fold, or they will increase financial aid as they scramble for the smaller number of people who can afford the big price tag for private school.

More parents who live in MoCo and NoVa will choose to send their kids to excellent public schools because the cost of private is outrageous. We're in this situation, and decided that our private is just not worth the money, so we're sending our kids to public.

There is little reason that a "less competitive" school needs to raise tuition in line with those at the high end of the market in order to stay competitive. If they need increased tuition to support increased facilities, then they will need to be able to justify the "value proposition" to parents. Some may be able to; others may seek a different segment of the market, with somewhat reduced tuition in exchange for somewhat reduced quality, in the form of expensive facilities, more teachers, etc.

They will keep raising tuition if families continue to pay it. Bottom line. And in this area, unfortunately/fortunately, that price tag has no limit...

If the so called second and third tiers fail, it will make the "first tiers" even harder to get in as the pool of good schools become smaller. This will increase the monopoly power of the remaining schools and they will charge even more because they can get away with it.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:No.

Why? There are enough parents in the DC area with high enough incomes and a competitive spirit to pay the $50K cost without feeling it.

The less competitive schools may have trouble filling their classes, though, as the price creeps up every year. Some of the lesser schools will fold, or they will increase financial aid as they scramble for the smaller number of people who can afford the big price tag for private school.

More parents who live in MoCo and NoVa will choose to send their kids to excellent public schools because the cost of private is outrageous. We're in this situation, and decided that our private is just not worth the money, so we're sending our kids to public.

There are many, MANY families in DC for whom $50K is completely insignificant (and certainly no different than $40K).

But, there aren't MANY families for whom $150,000 after-tax money is completely insignificant. Most people don't have only children.

The parents I know personally with 3 kids in NWDC schools who pay for it themselves (no grandparents) feel it and they cut back a little elsewhere. Or forego renovations. Or mom goes back full-time to the law firm instead of playing 12 hour a week "consultant." Yes, they can do it, but it's not "completely insignificant."

I know, cry them a river.

When parents stop demanding iPads for pre-k, college-worthy athletic fields, $6M playgrounds....

Anonymous wrote:No why would they? Thanks to Citizen's United, there is big and endless money in politics nowadays. That is partly what is funding the housing boom. There will always be people who can and do want to pay for a top private.

WTF? How can you turn a thoughtful thread about price of private school into politics about Citizen's United? Anyhow, the answer is as someone said above (and this applies to college and university hikes as well), as long as there are people willing to pay these prices, each school will follow the leader. If the Cathedral Schools or Sidwell ups its price, the others will follow. Same with universities. Right now we are in a seller's market so there is no end in sight. But, at some point, parents will say "enough!" and market forces will drive the prices down. We're starting to see some of this at the college level. Often you can barter with the financial aid department and they will meet your demand - say you are in UVA but want to go to MIT - MIT might give you in-state tuition. But you have to negotiate. Only schools with large endowments will be able to do that. Which means the second and third tier privates will fail. This cannot continue.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Market forces will sort this out. My guess is that you could graph the rise of pvt school tuition and it will nicely correlate with the income rise of the 1% over time.

+1

+2

The family demographics of Sidwell make a neat case for this hypothesis, when viewing 1985 compared to 2015.

Anonymous wrote:No.

Why? There are enough parents in the DC area with high enough incomes and a competitive spirit to pay the $50K cost without feeling it.

The less competitive schools may have trouble filling their classes, though, as the price creeps up every year. Some of the lesser schools will fold, or they will increase financial aid as they scramble for the smaller number of people who can afford the big price tag for private school.

More parents who live in MoCo and NoVa will choose to send their kids to excellent public schools because the cost of private is outrageous. We're in this situation, and decided that our private is just not worth the money, so we're sending our kids to public.

There are many, MANY families in DC for whom $50K is completely insignificant (and certainly no different than $40K).

No why would they? Thanks to Citizen's United, there is big and endless money in politics nowadays. That is partly what is funding the housing boom. There will always be people who can and do want to pay for a top private.

Anonymous wrote:Market forces will sort this out. My guess is that you could graph the rise of pvt school tuition and it will nicely correlate with the income rise of the 1% over time.

+1

No.

Why? There are enough parents in the DC area with high enough incomes and a competitive spirit to pay the $50K cost without feeling it.

The less competitive schools may have trouble filling their classes, though, as the price creeps up every year. Some of the lesser schools will fold, or they will increase financial aid as they scramble for the smaller number of people who can afford the big price tag for private school.

More parents who live in MoCo and NoVa will choose to send their kids to excellent public schools because the cost of private is outrageous. We're in this situation, and decided that our private is just not worth the money, so we're sending our kids to public.

Market forces will sort this out. My guess is that you could graph the rise of pvt school tuition and it will nicely correlate with the income rise of the 1% over time.

Anonymous wrote:I know this is a dumb question, but will top privates ever stop the madness and put a cap on tuition? In the not so distant future, tuition will reach $50K a year and just continue to rise. That's more than most colleges per year, that's a nice new car EVERY year, that's more than some people's salary per year, that's about a year of mortgage payments on a million dollar house - it's crazy! Soon the 1% won't be able to afford tuition for their children either - what happens then? No one will be able to donate funds for new playgrounds or athletic fields and no one will be able to buy big ticket items at auctions. FA will dry up as well - no one will be donating into it and everyone will be asking for it. They will have sucked even the richest of the rich dry. What will they do then? Will the madness ever stop? Will they ever cap tuition?

I would imagine that if your predictions proved true they then will put a cap on tuition. Until then, probably not.

I know this is a dumb question, but will top privates ever stop the madness and put a cap on tuition? In the not so distant future, tuition will reach $50K a year and just continue to rise. That's more than most colleges per year, that's a nice new car EVERY year, that's more than some people's salary per year, that's about a year of mortgage payments on a million dollar house - it's crazy! Soon the 1% won't be able to afford tuition for their children either - what happens then? No one will be able to donate funds for new playgrounds or athletic fields and no one will be able to buy big ticket items at auctions. FA will dry up as well - no one will be donating into it and everyone will be asking for it. They will have sucked even the richest of the rich dry. What will they do then? Will the madness ever stop? Will they ever cap tuition?