No need to be discouraged. But, if you're looking at Sidwell, StA/NCS, or GDS, fewer than one in three applicants will be accepted. So make sure you have a plan B that your DC will like and thrive at.

OP again, and thank you. This makes me feel a little better and like DC may have a shot at acceptance! At open houses and information sessions, the schools we are looking at say that they will have maybe 10 - 15 slots for DC's class next year. I look around and see three or more times that number of people there. I know they won't all end up applying but still - it's easy to get discouraged at this point.

Anonymous wrote:Most base it on historical yield however the smaller the school the tighter the window. I work in a vey small school so if we have 5 seats we can reasonably accommodate, we only accept 5 and wait for replies. Our wait list is real. High schools are much more fluid and will always over-accept and make accommodations in later years (not accept sophomore transfers, etc) if more accept than expected.

This is what my kids' school does too. Class size for younger grades is about 20-25, but the school cannot risk over-enrollment due to zoning and fire code restrictions. So the school admits just the exact number in the class and waitlists the rest. The school puts lots of pressure on admitted parents to decide quickly, so they can advise the waitlist group on status as soon as possible.

Most base it on historical yield however the smaller the school the tighter the window. I work in a vey small school so if we have 5 seats we can reasonably accommodate, we only accept 5 and wait for replies. Our wait list is real. High schools are much more fluid and will always over-accept and make accommodations in later years (not accept sophomore transfers, etc) if more accept than expected.

You'll get more variation in class size in schools with lower historical yield. I have one child in a school with about 90% yield. So they probably accept close to just the class size. The other child is at a school where I would guess yield is between 50 and 75%. I suspect they over except by quite a bit him class-size can vary. The same grade has varied between 13 and 20 kids during my time at the school.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:They do over accept by about 40 percent. One AD flat told me. For a class of 25, they will accept 40.

So what happens if more enroll than they have space for?

They just make room. I believe that has happened at Cathedral recently, for example.

It's not so different from colleges. Schools use their historical "yield" rate to decide whether and by how much to over-admit. Let's say that over the last ten years, 40% of students admitted to 9th grade at school X have enrolled. School X knows that unless something really weird happens to change its popularity, the same will probably happen this year, so they admit enough students that a 40% yield rate will get them roughly the number of students they want. If they have a 75% yield rate, they can admit fewer students per "slot"; if they have a 20% yield rate, they can admit more.

Obviously there is some built in uncertainty: this is not an exact science. Sometimes weird things do happen and more kids than expected accept (or turn down) offers. When that happens, schools just have to deal with it. They try hard to avoid big surprises, but occasionally they happen -- that's why from time to time you see one grade with more kids in it than other grades.

The more established the school, the easier it is for them to predict yield rates. Newer schools and schools where there have been significant changes find it tougher.

Anonymous wrote:They do over accept by about 40 percent. One AD flat told me. For a class of 25, they will accept 40.

So what happens if more enroll than they have space for?

They do over accept by about 40 percent. One AD flat told me. For a class of 25, they will accept 40.

I'm surprised to hear this. I have always assumed that schools overaccept to varying degrees, based on their historical yield.

OP here. Got it; thank you. So that's what is meant when people say "wait lists are real!" In other words, if you're high enough up, you really do have a chance.

They accept an equal number for the slots they have - and put a certain number on a wait list. If/as people turn down slots they make offers to the wait listed families.

We're making the rounds on MS open houses and at most schools, the AD gives an idea -- or a flat number -- of the spots that will be available in the class next year.

But how does this work as far as acceptances go? They have to accept more than that number, because not everyone accepted will enroll, right? Does the school calculate (or just guess) based on history alone as to how many acceptances they can offer? What happens if one year is really off and more people accept than they anticipate -- do they just make room for the extra kids?

Thanks for any insight on this!