Not to be flip about it, but your chances aren't really that hard to calculate: [# of K slots open that year] out of [the number of other families that want the K slot in that year]. Seems like neither number is truly knowable without a crystal ball, but past performance should be an indicator of future performance. How many K slots have been open at 2R the prior 3 years and how many were expected to be open this year?

You might as well have asked: 1. How many K slots will be open at 2R in two years? 2. How many children will apply for those slots in two years?

You know your child better than anyone else (obviously). But I'll say that every story I've heard about concerns about a child transitioning into a bigger school, etc, ended with the child making the transition well. It was true for our child this past year, albeit into a relatively big DCPS.
Good luck with your decision and the transition!

OP here. Thank you all for the input!

Ditto. You'll kick yourself if you pass this up.

Very low. You had lots of luck, and if TR is where you want to send her, I would do it now. My waitlist # last year was in the 380s.

In the last 3 years, the best result we've had for Two Rivers is a WL number in the 90s. I think our numbers there have been our worst amongst the other charters and popular DC public schools.

Very slim chance of getting in again for pk4 and K. I don't think families pull their kids out at K, and there are even fewer (if any) spots available at that level. Plus, I think the demand for schools is just getting greater as more families move and stay in DC, so I suspect it will get even harder to get into a highly sought after school. Take the spot, unless you really like your IB option.

Not many people win the lottery ever, and fewer win more than once.

Minimal. Take the spot. very hard to get in at K.

Or if you do not take the spot be prepared to move i boundary for somewhere good or pay for private.

0.1%

You won't likely have the same luck again so I would grab the spot now.

Take the spot! Seriously - you likely won't have the chance again. Also, keep in mind your kid will be 5 months older when starting school this fall - she'll change so much in that time period. Congrats on the spot!

Very small. We tried for PS3, PK4 and K and never got anywhere near a realistic shot.

Very slim. There typically are fewer seats at k since the pre-k kids have been in the school for years and probably won't be moving. In pk3 you are only competing with siblings. In k you are competing against all the kids already enrolled and siblings.

DD matched for PK3 at Two Rivers. We are strongly considering keeping her in private preschool for two more years (until Kindergarten). What do you think our chances of getting her into Two Rivers for Kindergarten will be? We just aren't positive that moving DD right now is best for her. Any thoughts?