Anonymous
Post 05/15/2014 21:56     Subject: Is this a bubble or the new normal?
The close in suburbs have only been buoyed by a bunch of lawyers and lobbyists selling to each other by builder proxy. All the cash offers show unnatural the market is; there's are people leveraging from buying before the bubble and there are almost no first time buyers. This game of musical chairs will end, probably abruptly.

You can already see te broader economy remains in a depression , despite coordination by central banks. DC won't be immune any more b/c the wars are over and sequestration remains te law of the land after 2015.

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2014/05/01/business/economy/us-economy-barely-grew-in-first-quarter.html?referrer=
Anonymous
Post 05/15/2014 21:43     Subject: Is this a bubble or the new normal?
Neighborhoods are not created equal. In 2007, when prices in the outs burbs were crashing, the market in close-in, desirable neighborhoods slowed down, and dipped about 10-15% (max). There were loads of doomsayers on the real estate forums who were crowing about how the crash "is moving in!!" and how they were going to bide their time and pick up a house in North Arlington cheap (CHEAP!). Anyone in 2007 would RUE THE DAY! Well, looking back, obviously buying in North Arlington in those days was a very wise move. Is it possible that the N. Arlington real estate market will crash? Yes. But if it does, this city (and probably the country) will have much bigger problems. They aren't making any more close-in real estate (particularly in areas with good schools). Demand is likely to always exceed supply.
Anonymous
Post 05/15/2014 21:32     Subject: Is this a bubble or the new normal?
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
There is a lot to be said that the federal jobs in this area are going to take a hit over the next few years. There will be less of them and they are what support the housing market here. In addition, they haven't had real raises to keep with inflation.

I believe that prices will fall on homes but probably in 3-5 years.


That's already happened. What are you talking about? Is this post from 2009


+1. Gotta find a new reason for doom and gloom.


Even though the sequestration is over, DOD still has said they will be having massive cuts. With the wars over, there will be a continued purge. I think it will be a gradual thing over the next decade. Maybe positions won't be filled as people retire, etc. It will be a silent, slow, almost invisible drawdown that will have an effect.
Anonymous
Post 05/15/2014 21:27     Subject: Is this a bubble or the new normal?
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
There is a lot to be said that the federal jobs in this area are going to take a hit over the next few years. There will be less of them and they are what support the housing market here. In addition, they haven't had real raises to keep with inflation.

I believe that prices will fall on homes but probably in 3-5 years.


That's already happened. What are you talking about? Is this post from 2009


+1. Gotta find a new reason for doom and gloom.
Anonymous
Post 05/15/2014 20:14     Subject: Is this a bubble or the new normal?
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:There is very little inventory in this area. Thus, the high prices.


There is little inventory nationwide; there are structural problems with the market and distortion from yield-chasing investors.


Why yes, kind sir/madam, I HAVE done my research and what I see is a healthy market in DC that has survived the recession, is seeing multiple offers and listings selling in less than a week (that are priced correctly). It is going gang busters and there are no signs of it stopping anytime soon with more than half of buyers now paying CASH in the close-in DC Metro area.

Tell me, where do YOU live? Are you a renter? Do you own your home? If so, where? Are you under water in your mortgage payments? Did you over-pay for your house because you perhaps represented yourself? Just curious! I do apologize for my gas bag comment earlier. That was rather insensitive.
Anonymous
Post 05/15/2014 14:09     Subject: Is this a bubble or the new normal?
Anonymous wrote:
There is a lot to be said that the federal jobs in this area are going to take a hit over the next few years. There will be less of them and they are what support the housing market here. In addition, they haven't had real raises to keep with inflation.

I believe that prices will fall on homes but probably in 3-5 years.


That's already happened. What are you talking about? Is this post from 2009
Anonymous
Post 05/15/2014 10:47     Subject: Is this a bubble or the new normal?

There is a lot to be said that the federal jobs in this area are going to take a hit over the next few years. There will be less of them and they are what support the housing market here. In addition, they haven't had real raises to keep with inflation.

I believe that prices will fall on homes but probably in 3-5 years.
Anonymous
Post 05/15/2014 07:50     Subject: Is this a bubble or the new normal?
http://dc.urbanturf.com/articles/blog/report_dc_sales_activity_slows_in_2014/8474

If only there were data to support any of these emotive theories (sigh). Looks like median price is rising and things are slowing down. A little bit for both sides. This will all shake out before too long one way or the other..


Anonymous
Post 05/15/2014 07:07     Subject: Is this a bubble or the new normal?
I am a realtor. The current market is strange because of the lack of inventory and high demand from people who have to move. With the govt easing down payment requirements, keeping fannie in place, and rates likely to remain low through year end, I expect more inventory online in the fall than usual. Still, the inner burbs are long term supply challenged, and even with some cutbacks unemployment among graduate degree holders in this area is sub-2%.
Anonymous
Post 05/15/2014 05:13     Subject: Is this a bubble or the new normal?
Anonymous wrote:There is very little inventory in this area. Thus, the high prices.


There is little inventory nationwide; there are structural problems with the market and distortion from yield-chasing investors.
Anonymous
Post 05/15/2014 04:48     Subject: Re:Is this a bubble or the new normal?
Anonymous wrote:The "pop" topic is "POPULATED" by a bunch of gas bags that do not know what is actually going on with the real estate market in this city. It's also populated by a lot of naysayers who are just extremely negative and probably envious that they cannot afford to purchase a home.

1. If you want to buy be pre-approved and ready to go if you see something you like. Better yet, have the resources available to make an all cash offer with no contingencies.

2. To the gas bags - do some research! This area, DC proper . . . NW in particular has not suffered as the rest of the country has with respect to the housing crisis. We are now on the way up and the real estate market in NW is seeing multiple offers, houses flying off the market in less than a week for properties that are priced well and staged well.

OP, I realize you are speaking to North Arlington but I think the NW DC market is comparable to North Arlington. It's a great time to be a seller and if you are a buyer - get your ducks in a row and be prepared!


Hi Realtor! Have you done your research and seen the DC metro job market weakening? And DC only coasted through housing crisis b/c of government spending and lobbying, hello sequester.

Btw, it's amusing to me how whenever some starts refuting the bubble, they start calling folks names (gas bags); you'll notice folks talking about the unhealthy nature of the market don't stoop to name calling
Anonymous
Post 05/14/2014 23:53     Subject: Is this a bubble or the new normal?
There is very little inventory in this area. Thus, the high prices.
Anonymous
Post 05/14/2014 21:55     Subject: Re:Is this a bubble or the new normal?
The "pop" topic is "POPULATED" by a bunch of gas bags that do not know what is actually going on with the real estate market in this city. It's also populated by a lot of naysayers who are just extremely negative and probably envious that they cannot afford to purchase a home.

1. If you want to buy be pre-approved and ready to go if you see something you like. Better yet, have the resources available to make an all cash offer with no contingencies.

2. To the gas bags - do some research! This area, DC proper . . . NW in particular has not suffered as the rest of the country has with respect to the housing crisis. We are now on the way up and the real estate market in NW is seeing multiple offers, houses flying off the market in less than a week for properties that are priced well and staged well.

OP, I realize you are speaking to North Arlington but I think the NW DC market is comparable to North Arlington. It's a great time to be a seller and if you are a buyer - get your ducks in a row and be prepared!
Anonymous
Post 05/14/2014 21:15     Subject: Is this a bubble or the new normal?
Check out the "pop" topic. The hot market is starting to change....
Anonymous
Post 05/14/2014 20:48     Subject: Is this a bubble or the new normal?
I live in North Arlington, and the recent sales in my neighborhood have been totally crazy. The houses fly off the market within a day or two, and they are selling at 10-20 percent higher than comparable homes from a year ago. Is this just a bubble created by the economic recovery, or part of the steady increase in real estate prices? I know there isn't any way to know for sure, but curious about what you all think.