Anonymous wrote:So the Ward 3 parents suffer which makes the school suffer?

Is that the extent of your reading ability?

So the Ward 3 parents suffer which makes the school suffer?

I am a Ward 3 parent with multiple kids in multiple schools. I have 4 of them spanning ES and MS. Without predictability I could end up with 4 kids in 4 different schools? I put a lot of money and energy int the two schools where we have kids. I am on the PTA, I volunteer every week, actively involved in both auctions and give handsomely to both schools. If my kids can't go to the same school there would be two factors which would lead us out of DCPS:

1. Logistics of getting 4 kids to 4 different schools
2. Inability to devote the same amount of time, resources and money to 4 different schools that I do now.

That would impact not only my family and decision to stick with DCPS but also the schools my kids would attend. I have a little one at home still. Will she be able to go to the elementary where her older sibling attended? We will have one entering ES, one in lower ES, one entering MS and one in MS in 2015. Without neighborhood boundaries or sibling pref I just won't invest in top DC schools any longer. Sad but true.

Anonymous wrote:If a middle class or wealthy family is lotteried into a low performing school far away from their home they will leave the system. If you push out enough of the high performing kids then schools will decline.

Families will put up with long commutes to a better school, but families with options will not put up with them to travel to a worse won. So kicking a high performing kid out of wilson makes wilson worse and does not improve a worse school.

Exactly.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The unpredictiblity will have two certain effects on ward 3 schools: 1) families who can afford it will put their kids in private school rather than risk sending their kids to a previously OOB school and 2) families who can't afford private will move to maryland or attempt to get into a charter that does provide some predictibility. If even 25% of families (i'd guess it would be more) leave the schools those schools lose the sense of community that has made them so strong. And parents who currently pay $1000 per child to support the extras that make the school great have a percentage of kids who don't pay and are essentially free riding, they will not continue to pay the extra amount and the overall quality of school will go down.

You are WAY overestimating the number of kids that will be changing boundaries. And I think overreacting.

It isn't changing boundaries - it is that under two of the three scenarios, your middle and high schools are by lottery (some with geographic preference...although with overcrowding i'm not sure how that would work). If there was even a 10% chance I'd have to get my kid from Chevy CHase DC to Hardy for middle school, i'd bail into private or MD.

Lottery city wide will ruin DC education, plan B is no big change.

If a middle class or wealthy family is lotteried into a low performing school far away from their home they will leave the system. If you push out enough of the high performing kids then schools will decline.

Families will put up with long commutes to a better school, but families with options will not put up with them to travel to a worse won. So kicking a high performing kid out of wilson makes wilson worse and does not improve a worse school.

Anonymous wrote:The unpredictiblity will have two certain effects on ward 3 schools: 1) families who can afford it will put their kids in private school rather than risk sending their kids to a previously OOB school and 2) families who can't afford private will move to maryland or attempt to get into a charter that does provide some predictibility. If even 25% of families (i'd guess it would be more) leave the schools those schools lose the sense of community that has made them so strong. And parents who currently pay $1000 per child to support the extras that make the school great have a percentage of kids who don't pay and are essentially free riding, they will not continue to pay the extra amount and the overall quality of school will go down.

You are WAY overestimating the number of kids that will be changing boundaries. And I think overreacting.

The unpredictiblity will have two certain effects on ward 3 schools: 1) families who can afford it will put their kids in private school rather than risk sending their kids to a previously OOB school and 2) families who can't afford private will move to maryland or attempt to get into a charter that does provide some predictibility. If even 25% of families (i'd guess it would be more) leave the schools those schools lose the sense of community that has made them so strong. And parents who currently pay $1000 per child to support the extras that make the school great have a percentage of kids who don't pay and are essentially free riding, they will not continue to pay the extra amount and the overall quality of school will go down.

One possible (though low chance) scenario is that the winners of the Wilson lottery under a citywide system could consist entirely of kids performing below grade level.

Nice effort 7:55 however if Deal someday has fewer black students (with the departure of eaton) it will not cause the overall quality of the school to decline.

Because schools are good because of the students and their involved parents. If you force a radical change in the student population (putting lots of low performing students into the school), the school will change for the worse. If then the parents of the high-performing kids pull them out of the school, you end up with what you had and may as well save yourself the trip.

Schools quality decline?

Anonymous wrote:several times yesterday I heard commenters say proposed changes would make Ward 3 schools worse. Now I can understand they might become less connected to local communities or property values might go down or that certain proposals have no community support. But I cannot believe that the schools themselves would become "worse." Those who believe that, prove your point.

OK, here are two examples: Taking Eaton out of Deal will result in less diversity at Deal because of Eaton's diversity. Forcing Eaton students to Hardy and, worse, considering assigning Hardy to some to-be-determined high school instead of Wilson, will cause students to bail from Eaton, particularly better-prepared/advantaged kids whose parents may be in a position to pursue private alternatives. Finally, taking Oyster out of Deal and Wilson will result in lower quality education for Oyster kids.

several times yesterday I heard commenters say proposed changes would make Ward 3 schools worse. Now I can understand they might become less connected to local communities or property values might go down or that certain proposals have no community support. But I cannot believe that the schools themselves would become "worse." Those who believe that, prove your point.