Chris, I love that the SWW-FS families talk about the growth in their neighborhood by PERCENTAGE and call it radical growth. It's just not. And if history is any guide, little of what limited growth there is will be captured by Francis-Stevens.
It's Cluster 5, right? West End, Foggy Bottom, GWU? That area is supposed to have an increase of 340 3-11 year-olds according to DC office of Planning between 2012 and 2017 (MFP p. 55). We're now going on 2 years into that 5-year prediction. Has FS-SWW picked up a good number of those 68 new students per year? At a 30 percent inboundary participation rate (above the current rates – check DCPS profiles or the DME information below), Francis-Stevens should have grown by roughly 20 inbounds students a year the last two years. How’s that going?
In terms of clusters with growth, look at Cluster 1, growing by 891 students by 2017,
Cluster 2, growing by 2,254 students ages 3-11, Cluster 3, growing by 504, Cluster 6, growing by 603, Cluster 7, growing by 729, Cluster 8 growing by 615, Cluster 14, growing by 671, Cluster 17, growing by 813,
Cluster 18, growing by 1,785 students ages 3-11, Cluster 19, growing by 514 students, Cluster 21, growing by 783 students,
Cluster 25, growing by 1,550 students,
Cluster 26, growing by 998 students, or
Cluster 39, growing by 907 students.
Maybe their percentages are not what yours are between 177 students age 3-11 and 517 (almost a rounding error for some of these clusters) but these places are where elementary students are radically growing in numbers.
The most interesting piece of the new materials on the DME website is actually the Appendix B "Boundary Participation Data Table" (pp. 8-94) (
http://dme.dc.gov/sites/default/files/dc/sites/dme/publication/attachments/Appendix%20B_Boundary%20Participation%20Data%20Tables_DRAFT_Policy%20Brief_3.pdf) Too bad the data is from 9/9/12 and too bad it’s not released to DC public number crunchers for analysis, but that’s another matter. The difficult thing about Francis Stevens is the Francis vs. Stevens breakouts – they make cross-comparison harder. But the basics are that in 2012, 42 students PK3-8th from inbounds of Francis and Stevens attended Francis-Stevens.
Francis-Stevens inbounds population is growing, but by a relatively small amount, less than 70 students per year in Cluster 5, from a very low number. It’s inboundary participation rate is not good, especially in the Francis boundary, where the majority of the student population is. There’s a reason why the MFP you cite (
http://dc.gov/DC/DME/Media%20Releases/newsroom_archive/Press%20Releases/Final%202013%20DC%20Public%20Education%20Plan.pdf) says that Cluster 5 has “moderate low need” and does not place it among top priority clusters for facilities spending. Closure might have required 50 inbounds families, max, to send their students elsewhere, in a city of hundreds of thousands of families.
It’s great that you fought closure and won. But don’t act like the stakes were that high for the City or that there’s radical growth going on in your neighborhood or your school by sticking big percentages on small numbers.