Anonymous
12/16/2013 15:43
Subject: Common Lottery Algorithm
Anonymous wrote:hmmm...good point. I'm the PP who came up with the theory on how the lottery will work and you're right...it's not clear how the waitlist piece would then work...we'll it's clear how it would work for your top choice...but for the 11 other schools that you ranked lower, not so much. Yeah, I don't know. Again, this shouldn't be a guessing game. This is a lottery that our taxes fund...we should be allowed to understand the methodology.
my understanding (from a conversation with myschools) but I may have misunderstood, is that if you get into school #5 you will be waitlisted at schools #1-#4 and you will NOT be waitlisted at schools #6-#12
Anonymous
12/16/2013 15:43
Subject: Common Lottery Algorithm
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:That is NOT the method. Please do not continue to spread this misinformation. The methodology is the same as last year.
1. 6 choices vs. 12
2. Charters are included
Two ways the methodology differs.
Yes, sorry, I thought that was obvious. The algorithm for the lottery is the same.
Anonymous
12/16/2013 15:41
Subject: Common Lottery Algorithm
Oh, and I should add that I agree they should be fully transparent in how it will work!
Anonymous
12/16/2013 15:40
Subject: Re:Common Lottery Algorithm
I don't see how it can be the same as last year's, given this from the Q&A:
"Q: Does the order in which I rank my choices affect my lottery results?
"A: Yes. You will only be matched to schools you list, and the lottery system works to match students with their 1st choice, then their 2nd choice, and so on through the student’s list. For this reason, it is important that you rank your list of schools in the order you prefer."
This sounds like the system that PP guessed about.
"Q: Does the order in which I rank my choices affect my lottery results?
"A: Yes. You will only be matched to schools you list, and the lottery system works to match students with their 1st choice, then their 2nd choice, and so on through the student’s list. For this reason, it is important that you rank your list of schools in the order you prefer."
This sounds like the system that PP guessed about.
Anonymous
12/16/2013 15:39
Subject: Common Lottery Algorithm
Anonymous wrote:That is NOT the method. Please do not continue to spread this misinformation. The methodology is the same as last year.
1. 6 choices vs. 12
2. Charters are included
Two ways the methodology differs.
Anonymous
12/16/2013 15:38
Subject: Common Lottery Algorithm
Anonymous wrote:That is NOT the method. Please do not continue to spread this misinformation. The methodology is the same as last year.
Obviously the methodology is NOT the same as last year - or we wouldn't have a common lottery.
Anonymous
12/16/2013 15:37
Subject: Common Lottery Algorithm
Anonymous wrote:That is NOT the method. Please do not continue to spread this misinformation. The methodology is the same as last year.
Point to some official statement or identify yourself as an authority. This sort of statement inferring authority is ridiculous without sources. So how about you stop spreading misinformation yourself? The PP above clearly stated that he/she didn't know and this was a guess. Stop being a jerk.
Anonymous
12/16/2013 15:36
Subject: Common Lottery Algorithm
hmmm...good point. I'm the PP who came up with the theory on how the lottery will work and you're right...it's not clear how the waitlist piece would then work...we'll it's clear how it would work for your top choice...but for the 11 other schools that you ranked lower, not so much. Yeah, I don't know. Again, this shouldn't be a guessing game. This is a lottery that our taxes fund...we should be allowed to understand the methodology.
Anonymous
12/16/2013 15:35
Subject: Common Lottery Algorithm
That is NOT the method. Please do not continue to spread this misinformation. The methodology is the same as last year.
Anonymous
12/16/2013 15:34
Subject: Common Lottery Algorithm
Anonymous wrote:Yes, agree that this algorithm should NOT be some sort of state secret. And I do not agree that it will be the same method as last year.
What I suspect is the plan is that they will take the full number of lottery applicants for a particular grade and spit out the numbers once (so, let's say 5000 applicants for one grade...they "shake the hat" and pull out the numbers ordering them as they are pulled--yes, I realize a computer will do this and it's not on slips of paper). Then, they go down that list of 5000 kids, placing children with any preference first, after that they start "matching" children with no preference with their most preferred schools).
So let's say applicant #3500 was actually sorted at #10 in the lottery. That child will have a very good shot at getting in his/her top or 2nd choice (if there were any spots at those schools after giving all the "preference kids" theirs). Conversely, let's say applicant #5 got ranked at #4500 in the lottery pull...that kid has very little chance in getting in at any of his/her top schools (assuming those schools are at all popular).
Anyway, this is admittedly a total guess, but it's all I can come up with based on the limited explanation that we've all received. Why oh why can't they just explain it very simply?
Under this system, how would the waitlists work? That is, say that you are #50 out of 5,000 to be selected by the computer, would you also be near the top of all the waitlists too? Meaning, you get into, say, your #4 choice, but when you are waitlisted at 1-3, you are pretty high there? That seems to be a real drawback of this method.
Anonymous
12/16/2013 15:28
Subject: Common Lottery Algorithm
Anonymous wrote:Yes, agree that this algorithm should NOT be some sort of state secret. And I do not agree that it will be the same method as last year.
What I suspect is the plan is that they will take the full number of lottery applicants for a particular grade and spit out the numbers once (so, let's say 5000 applicants for one grade...they "shake the hat" and pull out the numbers ordering them as they are pulled--yes, I realize a computer will do this and it's not on slips of paper). Then, they go down that list of 5000 kids, placing children with any preference first, after that they start "matching" children with no preference with their most preferred schools).
So let's say applicant #3500 was actually sorted at #10 in the lottery. That child will have a very good shot at getting in his/her top or 2nd choice (if there were any spots at those schools after giving all the "preference kids" theirs). Conversely, let's say applicant #5 got ranked at #4500 in the lottery pull...that kid has very little chance in getting in at any of his/her top schools (assuming those schools are at all popular).
Anyway, this is admittedly a total guess, but it's all I can come up with based on the limited explanation that we've all received. Why oh why can't they just explain it very simply?
That is my guess too.
Anonymous
12/16/2013 15:19
Subject: Common Lottery Algorithm
Yes, agree that this algorithm should NOT be some sort of state secret. And I do not agree that it will be the same method as last year.
What I suspect is the plan is that they will take the full number of lottery applicants for a particular grade and spit out the numbers once (so, let's say 5000 applicants for one grade...they "shake the hat" and pull out the numbers ordering them as they are pulled--yes, I realize a computer will do this and it's not on slips of paper). Then, they go down that list of 5000 kids, placing children with any preference first, after that they start "matching" children with no preference with their most preferred schools).
So let's say applicant #3500 was actually sorted at #10 in the lottery. That child will have a very good shot at getting in his/her top or 2nd choice (if there were any spots at those schools after giving all the "preference kids" theirs). Conversely, let's say applicant #5 got ranked at #4500 in the lottery pull...that kid has very little chance in getting in at any of his/her top schools (assuming those schools are at all popular).
Anyway, this is admittedly a total guess, but it's all I can come up with based on the limited explanation that we've all received. Why oh why can't they just explain it very simply?
What I suspect is the plan is that they will take the full number of lottery applicants for a particular grade and spit out the numbers once (so, let's say 5000 applicants for one grade...they "shake the hat" and pull out the numbers ordering them as they are pulled--yes, I realize a computer will do this and it's not on slips of paper). Then, they go down that list of 5000 kids, placing children with any preference first, after that they start "matching" children with no preference with their most preferred schools).
So let's say applicant #3500 was actually sorted at #10 in the lottery. That child will have a very good shot at getting in his/her top or 2nd choice (if there were any spots at those schools after giving all the "preference kids" theirs). Conversely, let's say applicant #5 got ranked at #4500 in the lottery pull...that kid has very little chance in getting in at any of his/her top schools (assuming those schools are at all popular).
Anyway, this is admittedly a total guess, but it's all I can come up with based on the limited explanation that we've all received. Why oh why can't they just explain it very simply?
Anonymous
12/16/2013 15:12
Subject: Common Lottery Algorithm
Anonymous wrote:It is the same method as last year, only with more schools. Think of it as mini-lotteries for each school, then a sorting process that gives you your highest ranked spot and puts you on the waiting list for any school you ranked higher.
That is definitely not what I have heard, and not what the lottery people are saying.
Anonymous
12/16/2013 15:09
Subject: Common Lottery Algorithm
It is the same method as last year, only with more schools. Think of it as mini-lotteries for each school, then a sorting process that gives you your highest ranked spot and puts you on the waiting list for any school you ranked higher.
Anonymous
12/16/2013 15:05
Subject: Common Lottery Algorithm
Would love to hear what people are hearing about how the matches will be made to maximize people getting into high-ranked choices. Here's what it says in the Q&A from my school dc:
"Q: Does the order in which I rank my choices affect my lottery results?
"A: Yes. You will only be matched to schools you list, and the lottery system works to match students with their 1st choice, then their 2nd choice, and so on through the student’s list. For this reason, it is important that you rank your list of schools in the order you prefer."
This definitely sounds different from last year's DCPS lottery. It sounds like they choose a lottery number, start from #1, and look for the highest-ranked school with an available spot. It then places the child on the waitlist of the schools ranked as more desirable.
However, that would mean that people would either be universally lucky or unlucky--in other words, you'd either get relatively good or relatively bad placement on ALL the waitlists if they do it this way. Anyone hear anything different about how the lottery will be run?
I really wish they would address the specific matching method on the Q&A for the common lottery website.
"Q: Does the order in which I rank my choices affect my lottery results?
"A: Yes. You will only be matched to schools you list, and the lottery system works to match students with their 1st choice, then their 2nd choice, and so on through the student’s list. For this reason, it is important that you rank your list of schools in the order you prefer."
This definitely sounds different from last year's DCPS lottery. It sounds like they choose a lottery number, start from #1, and look for the highest-ranked school with an available spot. It then places the child on the waitlist of the schools ranked as more desirable.
However, that would mean that people would either be universally lucky or unlucky--in other words, you'd either get relatively good or relatively bad placement on ALL the waitlists if they do it this way. Anyone hear anything different about how the lottery will be run?
I really wish they would address the specific matching method on the Q&A for the common lottery website.