Anonymous
08/17/2013 13:51
Subject: Re:Bidding war seems haul to the end and interest rates are dropping
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Macroeconomist here. The economy is recovering. So both interest rates and house prices are likely to be higher next year.
Just fyi, the negative relationship between interest rates and house prices holds ONLY if everything else (e.g. income growth) is constant. In this case, higher income growth is likely to drive up both variables.
Hope this helps.
As a macroeconomist, haven't you noticed that the trend has been that even though the economy is recovering, it hasn't translated into higher income or significant job growth. So I don't see significant income growth in the near future, especially not in the DC area, where a lot of the jobs are connected to government. All feds are looking at modest, if any, salary increases. We're still dealing with furloughs, and I don't see sequester going away.
I'm not saying that prices will plunge with higher interest rates, but I think because income growth is stagnant in this region, and likely will continue to be, even with an improving economy, I don't think house prices are going to continue to go up as significantly as they have been.
That's my prediction. But I think the last decade has shown us not to trust predictions. It's only a handful of economists that predicted what happened in 2008. The rest pooh-poohed them.
My income has increased every year by 10% including this summer (fed IT contractor at 180K) Besides government employees the private sector is doing fine.
Anonymous
08/17/2013 10:02
Subject: Re:Bidding war seems haul to the end and interest rates are dropping
Anonymous wrote:Macroeconomist here. The economy is recovering. So both interest rates and house prices are likely to be higher next year.
Just fyi, the negative relationship between interest rates and house prices holds ONLY if everything else (e.g. income growth) is constant. In this case, higher income growth is likely to drive up both variables.
Hope this helps.
As a macroeconomist, haven't you noticed that the trend has been that even though the economy is recovering, it hasn't translated into higher income or significant job growth. So I don't see significant income growth in the near future, especially not in the DC area, where a lot of the jobs are connected to government. All feds are looking at modest, if any, salary increases. We're still dealing with furloughs, and I don't see sequester going away.
I'm not saying that prices will plunge with higher interest rates, but I think because income growth is stagnant in this region, and likely will continue to be, even with an improving economy, I don't think house prices are going to continue to go up as significantly as they have been.
That's my prediction. But I think the last decade has shown us not to trust predictions. It's only a handful of economists that predicted what happened in 2008. The rest pooh-poohed them.
Anonymous
08/17/2013 09:57
Subject: Bidding war seems haul to the end and interest rates are dropping
Anonymous wrote:Microeconomist here. I just wanted to say that because I have never heard anyone referred to as a "macro"economist or a "micro"economist. Most of us are just economists with interests in various sectors of the economy.
Well, my PhD is in macroeconomics. And all of my colleagues refer to themselves as macroeconomists. Maybe we just work in different crowds.
Anonymous
08/17/2013 07:59
Subject: Bidding war seems haul to the end and interest rates are dropping
Op here, nice to hear that both will rise. It was a pretty tough to get over the feeling of "damn, should have got it few months ago". Thanks for all the posts
Anonymous
08/16/2013 23:48
Subject: Bidding war seems haul to the end and interest rates are dropping
Tough crowd
Anonymous
08/16/2013 23:36
Subject: Bidding war seems haul to the end and interest rates are dropping
Microeconomist here. I just wanted to say that because I have never heard anyone referred to as a "macro"economist or a "micro"economist. Most of us are just economists with interests in various sectors of the economy.
Anonymous
08/14/2013 18:40
Subject: Re:Bidding war seems haul to the end and interest rates are dropping
Anonymous wrote:Macroeconomist here. The economy is recovering. So both interest rates and house prices are likely to be higher next year.
Just fyi, the negative relationship between interest rates and house prices holds ONLY if everything else (e.g. income growth) is constant. In this case, higher income growth is likely to drive up both variables.
Hope this helps.
From your lips to God's ears.
Anonymous
08/14/2013 11:40
Subject: Re:Bidding war seems haul to the end and interest rates are dropping
Macroeconomist here. The economy is recovering. So both interest rates and house prices are likely to be higher next year.
Just fyi, the negative relationship between interest rates and house prices holds ONLY if everything else (e.g. income growth) is constant. In this case, higher income growth is likely to drive up both variables.
Hope this helps.
Just fyi, the negative relationship between interest rates and house prices holds ONLY if everything else (e.g. income growth) is constant. In this case, higher income growth is likely to drive up both variables.
Hope this helps.
Realtor4you
08/14/2013 11:29
Subject: Bidding war seems haul to the end and interest rates are dropping
Realtor here...prices likely to continue to rise. Visit www.RBIINTEL.com for more information. Interest rates are likely to continue the upward trend. They are up .75% over the past six months. As the Fed looks to reduce the purchase of bonds, rates will tick up. Consult a lender for additional thoughts.
Anonymous
08/14/2013 05:35
Subject: Bidding war seems haul to the end and interest rates are dropping
Anonymous wrote:Prices will continue to climb once rates stabilize
Shhh,
Since you know the future why the hell are you posting on a public forum and not setting up your massive hedge fund bet ala Paulson?
Anonymous
08/14/2013 03:16
Subject: Bidding war seems haul to the end and interest rates are dropping
Prices will continue to climb once rates stabilize
Anonymous
08/14/2013 02:15
Subject: Bidding war seems haul to the end and interest rates are dropping
All you realtor or investment people out there, will the house price likely to be higher next summer and interest rate will be steady or maybe even dropping?
I just bought it. I think I over paid and the interest was low, so just want to see what will most likely be happening with the market.
I just bought it. I think I over paid and the interest was low, so just want to see what will most likely be happening with the market.