I think there are a lot of families who may still move to the burbs for MS and HS.

Anonymous wrote:AU park is still about 60% middle aged empty nesters and elderly. When we go trick-or-treating I'm always amazed at how many people here are not in the families-with-young-kids demographic. Some blocks are 90% >age 50.
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Why do you find this amazing? Seriously. Where are the adults who are < 90 yo (nursing home) but > 50 yo supposed to go once their children go to college, exactly?

AU park is still about 60% middle aged empty nesters and elderly. When we go trick-or-treating I'm always amazed at how many people here are not in the families-with-young-kids demographic. Some blocks are 90% >age 50.

Each time a house sells, it sells to parents with kids and they generally have young kids--one under 2 and another on the way kind of scenario.

I think you will start to see a lot of turnover in housing, once housing values have passed their 2006 (or so) peak.

SFHs in these school districts are past that peak. Condos are not. One issue with these areas are that it is such a great rental market that a lot of people who bought earlier are choosing to keep their first property as a rental instead of selling it.

There are still a lot of elderly people living in their SFHs here in AU Park. Once they pass away and their houses go on the market, the elementary school families will take their place. Basically everyone who buys a house in the neighborhood has kids they want to send to Janney.

The way this question is asked makes me wonder where and how far the person asking it - and those responding - went to school. The encyclopedia or wikipedia will discuss this phenomenon under "demography" or "demographics". It's absolutely not new for cities, suburbs, rural areas to worry about demographic concentrations and shifts in demographic make-ups of neighborhoods. Demographic factors don't just include income, employment, race, size of households etc. They also include age. For example, many suburbs these days are grappling with aging populations, a phenomenon unheard of a couple decades ago. Meanwhile DC is seeing a surge of young families. Of course neighborhoods age (go visit sections of Bethesda or Silver Spring). But will these spatial demographic shifts happen at the speed at which it matters for much more short-lived school choice dynamics? I strongly doubt it.

Anonymous wrote:15:03-OP here, you explained it better than me. I just dont see a trend in high turnover happening in those areas. If you love the neighborhood AND you good elem, middle and HS then you are likely to stay put. Without an influx of new families with young kids (and almost no new construction that would bring additional housing IB), and very little turn over (certainly aren't moving cause the schools suck or crime is bad) then at some point the number of elem school children will dramatically decrease.
Whereas other neighborhoods in DC families might stay put through pk/k and then lots of ongoing turnover and shuffling as families with babies move in, families with elem school kids move out.

But why would these areas be any different now than in previous years? And if that were the case, neighborhoods across the area with good schools would always see a loss in young student population (MoCo, Fairfax) over the years, but that doesn't happen either.

I think you will start to see a lot of turnover in housing, once housing values have passed their 2006 (or so) peak.

15:03-OP here, you explained it better than me. I just dont see a trend in high turnover happening in those areas. If you love the neighborhood AND you good elem, middle and HS then you are likely to stay put. Without an influx of new families with young kids (and almost no new construction that would bring additional housing IB), and very little turn over (certainly aren't moving cause the schools suck or crime is bad) then at some point the number of elem school children will dramatically decrease.
Whereas other neighborhoods in DC families might stay put through pk/k and then lots of ongoing turnover and shuffling as families with babies move in, families with elem school kids move out.

That's a rather large neighborhood to age that quickly. Given that they are overloaded right now, that seems like a ridiculous proposition.

14:59, that was my thought at first but I believe OP is saying that it will be difficult for new families to move IB for those schools because there are so few houses for sale. And presumably the families with kids going on to Deal will not move out.

Intriguing idea - neighborhoods do age after all -- but I think you'd have to talk to a researcher with more experience than most of us on DCUM have to really sort that one out.

OP- just because housing inventory has been low for 6 months doesn't mean there will be no new families IB for the next 6 year. Your time frame needs to be much, much larger.

And why are the people who currently live IB going to stop having children?

Anonymous wrote:I don't get it. Why wouldn't more be coming? Where are all the preschoolers going in your scenario?

OP is referring to when the PS get older. Since most family have 2, 3 kids top, after kid #3 ages out of Janey for example, if that couple isn't selling their house to new family with PK kids, what happens?

I don't get it. Why wouldn't more be coming? Where are all the preschoolers going in your scenario?

I have been giving this some thought and researching various schools online as well as real estate in those IB neighborhoods with the most in demand schools. So in looking at Janney its 92 % inbounds but I am assuming the younger grades are probably closer to 99% inbounds. There is also very little inventory available for sale IB. Even when you factor in sibling preference for younger grades, the fact that there is so little turnover in housing..at some point wont all the IB kids be moving on to Deal with very few new IB kids coming up through the ranks? It seems like this could happen in 2-3 years and the k/1st grade classes could have a lot of OOB openings again. Is this just wishful thinking?