The size of the incoming AAP population is driven by the number of kids in the pool.

Have we been given any solid evidence that they intend to reduce the size of AAP? Has the School Board or FCPS administration said that? The fact that the pool may be smaller doesn't necessarily mean they intend to shrink AAP.

Anonymous wrote:There are somewhere around ~13000 second graders.

assuming 13K is correct and you expect about 50% overlap on 2 of the 4 tests then you would get 10% of the total in pool. That would be 1300. Considering NNAT is 132, thats going to make the pool more than the top 5% so that number should actually be higher then but I would bet 1300 is close.

Anonymous wrote:If only the top 5% of 2nd graders make the pool from the coat, that number is about 660. How many more are captures in the pool from the NNAT only is unknown.

From the parents report of scores, there is a big overlap for NNAT and cogat. If we say 50% more will be captured from NNAT, then the pool will be:
660+330=990.

There are somewhere around ~13000 second graders.

If only the top 5% of 2nd graders make the pool from the coat, that number is about 660. How many more are captures in the pool from the NNAT only is unknown.

OP here,

Thanks, 15:32.

That's excellent analysis, now I am more convinced.

Anonymous wrote:Thank you, 15:10.

However, I still don't know how many will be.........by looking at about 600 students versus 1100-1300 students (if 10-12% of total 11000 2nd graders) in AAP?

We won't know until the final numbers out. Even AAP office won't know for sure.
My guess is closer to the 1100-1300 range. There are 24 AAP centers in ES, and the comfortable (critical) mass is 50. No way there will be only 600 AAP in the rising 3rd grade, unless they close half of the center. Consider TJ accepts 480 students each year, and that race is tight. No way they can do only 600 AAP kids a year now.
10 years ago, they have total 5000 AAP kids cross 6 grades. that's about 900 kids each grade. The lowest they can go back to will be 900. I think 1200 is a good balance. The current 2000 number is too much.

Thank you, 15:10.

However, I still don't know how many will be.........by looking at about 600 students versus 1100-1300 students (if 10-12% of total 11000 2nd graders) in AAP?

Anonymous wrote:Currently it's about 16% in AAP.
The rising 3rd grade AAP expect to reduce, if we look at the new CogAT cut off, but won't be as low as 660.
My guess is around 12-13% range, give or take.

Could be that they are using a shallower pool from the tests, while opening up for more referrals to combat any adverse impact from the tests.

Currently it's about 16% in AAP.
The rising 3rd grade AAP expect to reduce, if we look at the new CogAT cut off, but won't be as low as 660.
My guess is around 12-13% range, give or take.

I am confused by two numbers I saw:

Someone said that about 15-18% will be in AAP. If we assume there are 11000 2nd graders, then about 1650 -1980 will be AAP, right?

Then, one post mentioned there would be around 660 in AAP. So how could I make sense from these two.

And, rougly about how many 2nd graders are either NNAT > 132, or Cogat > 95%, to meet the above numbers?