Republicans: When do we believe in polls, and when are they a bunch of nonsense? I'm confused. It's starting to look like they are only good when they favor you.

Anonymous wrote:Rasmussen has been by far the most accurate the last 6 election cycles and it's not even close.

That's not even remotely an accurate statement.

Nate Silver basically disembowels your claim here:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/04/rasmussen-polls-were-biased-and-inaccurate-quinnipiac-surveyusa-performed-strongly/

Anonymous wrote:NOBODY IS ACCURATE EXCEPT FOR THE PEOPLE WHO SAY MY CANDIDATE IS MORE LIKELY TO WIN.

exactly. i only trust polls that give me the results i want time in and time out.

Anonymous wrote:Rasmussen has been by far the most accurate the last 6 election cycles and it's not even close.

I'm of the opinion that Rasmussen leans right. But, if that is the one you trust, Rasmussen's tracker has the Presidential race tied and the electoral college at 237 - 181 for Obama. If you add in the electoral votes of the "toss-up" states that Rasmussen currently has Obama leading, Obama is well over 270. So, even Rasmussen has Obama winning today.

Rasmussen has been by far the most accurate the last 6 election cycles and it's not even close.

NOBODY IS ACCURATE EXCEPT FOR THE PEOPLE WHO SAY MY CANDIDATE IS MORE LIKELY TO WIN.

Definitely think Romney's debate bump is temporary. But as PPs noted, it doesn't matter since Obama is so far ahead in the Electoral College.

Obama is back up by 5 today.

Yeah, take a look at the electoral map. Depending on source, they change slightly. But they are more revealing than the general polls.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html

That's all very nice, but if you look at the electoral college numbers, there's hardly any way Obama can lose. It would take a perfect storm for Romney to win. And I don't even much like Obama.

the polling is rigged. no way romney is even with obama.

they weigh the sample heavily with republican and old people and that makes the numbers look like they way they do now.

ill chime in and bitch about the unemployment totals being screwy when they get back up to 8%. for now the 7.8% figure is accurate.

Anonymous wrote:
3 day post debate averages are starting to come in...

http://www.gallup.com/poll/157907/romney-narrows-vote-gap-historic-debate-win.aspx

I'm just curious whether you know that these polls don't actually matter?

Look at the polls in the toss-up states.

As the pp who just posted Nate Silver's column basically implied, Obama is still crushing it in these battleground states.

I think Obama's on track for something like 315 electoral college votes.

Love Nate Silver. Thanks for posting.

October 7, 2012, 8:10 PM
Oct. 7: National Polls Show Signs of Settling
By NATE SILVER
Mitt Romney remains in a considerably stronger polling position than he was before last Wednesday’s debate in Denver. But the polls released on Sunday did not tell quite as optimistic a story for him as those in the debate’s immediate aftermath.

[Edited to comply with copyright law. ]

3 day post debate averages are starting to come in...

http://www.gallup.com/poll/157907/romney-narrows-vote-gap-historic-debate-win.aspx