Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:OP again. I just wonder if there's something symbolic about it being below 8. In reality it's marginal but may seem like more?

You mean, for the same reasons that retailers price things at $9.98 instead of $10.00? Yeah, that makes sense. It does seem cheerier, even though I agree with Jeff that the scale of the increase is still much lower than you'd hope.

Exactly what I mean. We'd like better--the change isn't actually much, but it seems like "yay we're below 8% for the first time in almost 4 years!" I'm just thinking purely psychologically--the numbers have started with 8 and 9 for nearly 4 years. Now we're in the 7s. That sort of perception.

Well, I think it makes for a great soundbite for Obama's re-election. But, for the individual American I don't think perspectives about the economy overall will change much until paychecks start getting bigger. I think a lot of the feeling about the economy is actually generalized anxiety about the very real problem that wages have been stagnant for decades, people have debt financed the American dream, that option is now gone, and lots of people live paycheck to paycheck. Most Americans are palpably aware that they are one family crisis away from the streets. The only way out is to raise wages, get household debt under control, and incentivize savings over consumption. That will get people feeling secure again and perceptions about the economy will go up. Unfortunately, it's problematic for the economy overall in the short term.

COrporations have to be willing to reduce profits (and executive pay) a little then.

Yes. (PP here.) Quite a pickle, isn't it?

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:OP again. I just wonder if there's something symbolic about it being below 8. In reality it's marginal but may seem like more?

You mean, for the same reasons that retailers price things at $9.98 instead of $10.00? Yeah, that makes sense. It does seem cheerier, even though I agree with Jeff that the scale of the increase is still much lower than you'd hope.

Exactly what I mean. We'd like better--the change isn't actually much, but it seems like "yay we're below 8% for the first time in almost 4 years!" I'm just thinking purely psychologically--the numbers have started with 8 and 9 for nearly 4 years. Now we're in the 7s. That sort of perception.

Well, I think it makes for a great soundbite for Obama's re-election. But, for the individual American I don't think perspectives about the economy overall will change much until paychecks start getting bigger. I think a lot of the feeling about the economy is actually generalized anxiety about the very real problem that wages have been stagnant for decades, people have debt financed the American dream, that option is now gone, and lots of people live paycheck to paycheck. Most Americans are palpably aware that they are one family crisis away from the streets. The only way out is to raise wages, get household debt under control, and incentivize savings over consumption. That will get people feeling secure again and perceptions about the economy will go up. Unfortunately, it's problematic for the economy overall in the short term.

COrporations have to be willing to reduce profits (and executive pay) a little then.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:OP again. I just wonder if there's something symbolic about it being below 8. In reality it's marginal but may seem like more?

You mean, for the same reasons that retailers price things at $9.98 instead of $10.00? Yeah, that makes sense. It does seem cheerier, even though I agree with Jeff that the scale of the increase is still much lower than you'd hope.

Exactly what I mean. We'd like better--the change isn't actually much, but it seems like "yay we're below 8% for the first time in almost 4 years!" I'm just thinking purely psychologically--the numbers have started with 8 and 9 for nearly 4 years. Now we're in the 7s. That sort of perception.

Well, I think it makes for a great soundbite for Obama's re-election. But, for the individual American I don't think perspectives about the economy overall will change much until paychecks start getting bigger. I think a lot of the feeling about the economy is actually generalized anxiety about the very real problem that wages have been stagnant for decades, people have debt financed the American dream, that option is now gone, and lots of people live paycheck to paycheck. Most Americans are palpably aware that they are one family crisis away from the streets. The only way out is to raise wages, get household debt under control, and incentivize savings over consumption. That will get people feeling secure again and perceptions about the economy will go up. Unfortunately, it's problematic for the economy overall in the short term.

Once again 300 k gave up looking for work...it's miserable out there.

The key # is the number of people that are seeking work.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:OP again. I just wonder if there's something symbolic about it being below 8. In reality it's marginal but may seem like more?

You mean, for the same reasons that retailers price things at $9.98 instead of $10.00? Yeah, that makes sense. It does seem cheerier, even though I agree with Jeff that the scale of the increase is still much lower than you'd hope.

Exactly what I mean. We'd like better--the change isn't actually much, but it seems like "yay we're below 8% for the first time in almost 4 years!" I'm just thinking purely psychologically--the numbers have started with 8 and 9 for nearly 4 years. Now we're in the 7s. That sort of perception.

i think the number dropping will help with imaging more than anything.

again, "normal" voters dont pour through numbers looking for nuance. they hear the rate drop and see that the trajectory seems to be moving downward and make a decision on that.

by no means does this means obama is going to win. i do think though that having the rate go down coming into the election is better than sluggish movement and even worse, the rate going higher.

im sure if we look through the data, the jobs being created arent "high paying" or that number of people who stopped looking increased or didnt change. at the end of the day, the message you heard from obama was that we are on the right track and a figure like this supports that sentiment and that will pay off coming into next month....

Anonymous wrote:OP again. I just wonder if there's something symbolic about it being below 8. In reality it's marginal but may seem like more?

You mean, for the same reasons that retailers price things at $9.98 instead of $10.00? Yeah, that makes sense. It does seem cheerier, even though I agree with Jeff that the scale of the increase is still much lower than you'd hope.

Is the dip the result of the august upward revision?

Anonymous wrote:No, because Americans still don't believe the economy is doing better and/or because it's not clear that these numbers will hold. I do think it makes it easier for Obama to make the case that we are on the right path and it makes it harder for the Reps to argue for the types of radical economic policy changes they would like to see. But, at this point, the bottom line is still uncertainty.

I disagree with this. I'm not sure there's a significant majority of Americans who think this way, or even a plurality. The survey results of the question "are you better off than you were 4 years ago" tend to be evenly split three ways: Those who feel they are worse, those about the same, and those who feel better. More importantly, at least a plurality and likely a majority believe they're better off compared to what would have happened under a McCain-Palin administration. So, this bolded statement doesn't reflect reality, at least as far as statistically valid polling shows. If it were true, Obama's numbers would be a lot worse.

OP again. I just wonder if there's something symbolic about it being below 8. In reality it's marginal but may seem like more?

No, because Americans still don't believe the economy is doing better and/or because it's not clear that these numbers will hold. I do think it makes it easier for Obama to make the case that we are on the right path and it makes it harder for the Reps to argue for the types of radical economic policy changes they would like to see. But, at this point, the bottom line is still uncertainty.

Only 114,000 jobs added. Thats treading water. Both sides will be able to spin this so while it won't hurt Obama, it won't really help either.

Maybe at the margins. The trajectory is positive and feeds the Dem storyline. But UI is still too high (and subject to revision) relative to history.

Unemployment is a lagging indicator... Unfortunately for Obama it may have lagged for too long.

Does falling below 8% give Obama a boost and end the debate story or no?