Anonymous
09/13/2012 16:01
Subject: s/o why Rasmussen is not credible
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Rasmussen is the most accurate in presidential polling compared to the actual voting results.
"Unsourced statements on the Internet are useless."
-Abraham Lincoln
Um, PP, I think you mis-attribute the quote. It wasn't Lincoln, but our nation's very thoughtful second president, George Washington. Regardless of who said it, they were correct!
Anonymous
09/13/2012 15:02
Subject: s/o why Rasmussen is not credible
Anonymous wrote:How the fark do you miss a result by 40 points?
The voters must have been wrong!
Anonymous
09/13/2012 14:37
Subject: s/o why Rasmussen is not credible
How the fark do you miss a result by 40 points?
Anonymous
09/13/2012 10:41
Subject: s/o why Rasmussen is not credible
Anonymous wrote:Rasmussen is the most accurate in presidential polling compared to the actual voting results.
Nate Silver thoroughly debunks this in the link.
Anonymous
09/13/2012 09:12
Subject: s/o why Rasmussen is not credible
Anonymous wrote:Rasmussen is the most accurate in presidential polling compared to the actual voting results.
"Unsourced statements on the Internet are useless."
-Abraham Lincoln
Anonymous
09/13/2012 09:10
Subject: s/o why Rasmussen is not credible
PP - source, please?
Anonymous
09/13/2012 09:05
Subject: s/o why Rasmussen is not credible
Rasmussen is the most accurate in presidential polling compared to the actual voting results.
Anonymous
09/13/2012 08:56
Subject: s/o why Rasmussen is not credible
What is the point of distorting the numbers? Does inflating the numbers in advance of an election improve the actual vote, or is it just a feel-good exercise?
I'm asking two things -- has there been any study that gives data on the effect of the inaccurate polls, and do you as a voter feel the polls affect whether or how you vote?
I'm asking two things -- has there been any study that gives data on the effect of the inaccurate polls, and do you as a voter feel the polls affect whether or how you vote?
Anonymous
09/12/2012 23:01
Subject: s/o why Rasmussen is not credible
That's horrible. Of course they'll just say the source of the study is biased, which would be ironic.
Has anyone here worked with Rasmussen? I have always thought they must have two sets of numbers - one which has "optimistic" criteria for likely voters, which produces the public number, and another which has more realistic but unpublished criteria that are actually consumed by campaigns.
Has anyone here worked with Rasmussen? I have always thought they must have two sets of numbers - one which has "optimistic" criteria for likely voters, which produces the public number, and another which has more realistic but unpublished criteria that are actually consumed by campaigns.
Anonymous
09/12/2012 22:23
Subject: s/o why Rasmussen is not credible
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/04/rasmussen-polls-were-biased-and-inaccurate-quinnipiac-surveyusa-performed-strongly/?hp
Specifically:
The 105 polls released in Senate and gubernatorial races by Rasmussen Reports and its subsidiary, Pulse Opinion Research, missed the final margin between the candidates by 5.8 points, a considerably higher figure than that achieved by most other pollsters. Some 13 of its polls missed by 10 or more points, including one in the Hawaii Senate race that missed the final margin between the candidates by 40 points, the largest error ever recorded in a general election in FiveThirtyEight’s database, which includes all polls conducted since 1998.
Moreover, Rasmussen’s polls were quite biased, overestimating the standing of the Republican candidate by almost 4 points on average. In just 12 cases, Rasmussen’s polls overestimated the margin for the Democrat by 3 or more points. But it did so for the Republican candidate in 55 cases — that is, in more than half of the polls that it issued.
Rasmussen is basically one big push-poll. It's part of the "Vast Right-Wing conspiracy" articulated by then-First Lady Hillary Clinton in the late 1990s.
Specifically:
The 105 polls released in Senate and gubernatorial races by Rasmussen Reports and its subsidiary, Pulse Opinion Research, missed the final margin between the candidates by 5.8 points, a considerably higher figure than that achieved by most other pollsters. Some 13 of its polls missed by 10 or more points, including one in the Hawaii Senate race that missed the final margin between the candidates by 40 points, the largest error ever recorded in a general election in FiveThirtyEight’s database, which includes all polls conducted since 1998.
Moreover, Rasmussen’s polls were quite biased, overestimating the standing of the Republican candidate by almost 4 points on average. In just 12 cases, Rasmussen’s polls overestimated the margin for the Democrat by 3 or more points. But it did so for the Republican candidate in 55 cases — that is, in more than half of the polls that it issued.
Rasmussen is basically one big push-poll. It's part of the "Vast Right-Wing conspiracy" articulated by then-First Lady Hillary Clinton in the late 1990s.