Anonymous wrote:Obama. Romney just lost the independent appeal with a Ryan pick. Stupid. If you look at Romeny's record he's actually fairly liberal. Independents sould have been tempted. But abolish medicare? Anti gay, anti reproductve rights? No they just scared away swing voters and that is where the election will be decided.

My thought too.

One thing I've never understood about politics is the appeasing the base concept. Your hardcore Repubs or Dems aren't going to vote the other direction regardless of who you pick as a running mate. It really is that majority of moderates, independents, aka swing voters that make the difference.

Obama. The Ryan pick will cost Romney seniors and women, and since he didn't pick a Hispanic he lost them too. You can't win when you only appeal to white men.

Obama

Anonymous wrote:Romney

Wishful thinking. On what reality do you base this prediction?

Obama. Romney just lost the independent appeal with a Ryan pick. Stupid. If you look at Romeny's record he's actually fairly liberal. Independents sould have been tempted. But abolish medicare? Anti gay, anti reproductve rights? No they just scared away swing voters and that is where the election will be decided.

Obama. And it's going to be a landslide. I believe in Nate Silver and the comprehensive algorithm he's developed that takes into account every poll, which way it leans, how it polls, how historically accurate its been, the economy, etc.

His model shows 330 electoral votes as the most likely outcome. You heard it hear first.

Romney

Remember it's about how many states you win. Obama has 237 electoral votes Romney 191. 9 states to fight over, 110 electoral votes. If Obama win Florida it over.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html

Obama

although I look forward to the debates - they should be highly entertaining

OP here. Interesting. I sort of think so too, although I think there will be a lot of back and forth along the way.

Obama.

I think it will be close, but Obama will win

Obama by 4 -6 points.

Obama by a fairly large margin.

Honestly, who do you think is going to win in November? Not who you want to win, but who do you think WILL win?