Sadly, you lose eggs and/or embryos at every part of this process. Not every egg retrieved will fertilize. Not every fertilized egg will grow properly. And not every growing fertilized egg will make it to day 3, and of those, not every one will make it to day 5.
This may sound too simplistic, but why don't you leave this in the hands of your doctors now to recommend a plan of action for you? I know this is scary and that it may feel more comfortable to "ask the audience," (you're doing a lot of that.

) but the doctors/embryologists are the ones who are seeing your eggs and can give you an idea of how vigorously they are growing. And you have a right to ask them to explain very carefully and clearly to you why they are making the suggestions that they are.
I personally think the odds in your favor that you'll have at least 2-3 blasts by day 5. It's unlikely that you'll have more than that. But with the numbers you're describing a desire not to have twins, I could see pushing to blast.
But your doctor may recommend a day 3 transfer based on what they're seeing of your eggs and how they're coping in lab conditions. There's really not one "right" answer here. There's only what you feel is right in consultation with your doctors.