I have gotten my period on progesterone and I've not gotten it, so it's tough to make that call. I agree with 21:37, take an HPT. I got a faint positive 7 days past a 5 day transfer. You're about in that window, because that would be 12 days past retrieval, right now you're at that as of tomorrow a.m.
I will say the times I got my period I felt the same "period is coming cramps" that I did when I wasn't pregnant, so don't go by that. You're on all these meds, so everything is engineered now. Symptoms mean nothing.