I work for an SEC flagship (albeit not one of the top ones) and leadership is constantly stressing about the cliff. We are spending a lot of time and resources on mitigating it, but even with that, our rising freshman class will be smaller than last year's.

Also, remember, “merit” = discount for affluent families, and/or kids whose stats will improve ranking data.

Discount rate is one of the most important metrics to be watching for institutional financial health—and that’s exactly what it’s called on the institutional side!

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It absolutely depends on the college. Some like Elon and Syracuse that are private and expensive have declining enrollments.

Some like large D1 public schools, especially in the South, have increasing enrollment.

The cliff thing is a red herring to explain away why certain schools have declining enrollments.

Today’s winner for the stupidest comment on DCUM.

Hey idiot, the South is growing, no cliff here. The cliff is in the blue, no growth, high tax states who have been chasing people and business away for years. Now the mid schools there are claiming "cliff" as the excuse for the no growth policies that caused the local cliff.

Elon is in the south.

I don't know about Elon specific issues, but similar to other southern, mid-tier privates, their issues do not have anything to due with the "cliff". These schools now have huge competition from public ACC/SEC schools that in years/decades past presented little crossover. Now rich and UMC southerners, and others, will gladly send kids to UGA, Clemson, NC State, Auburn, etc., where in years past that didn't happen often and left a niche market for mid southern slacs, think Furman, Mercer, Sewanee, Wofford, Elon, etc. Those days are gone. Now the Elon's have to become way better, more specialized, or D1 sports oriented to create a new niche.

Anonymous wrote:Two things could be true at once. There is a decline in the # of students. This will impact some schools more overly than some other schools, based on rankings, locations, other..

Absolutely. The decline in # is real and will disproportionately affect private colleges all over the country. To call the enrollment cliff a “red herring” is really weird.

Two things could be true at once. There is a decline in the # of students. This will impact some schools more overly than some other schools, based on rankings, locations, other..

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It absolutely depends on the college. Some like Elon and Syracuse that are private and expensive have declining enrollments.

Some like large D1 public schools, especially in the South, have increasing enrollment.

The cliff thing is a red herring to explain away why certain schools have declining enrollments.

Today’s winner for the stupidest comment on DCUM.

Hey idiot, the South is growing, no cliff here. The cliff is in the blue, no growth, high tax states who have been chasing people and business away for years. Now the mid schools there are claiming "cliff" as the excuse for the no growth policies that caused the local cliff.

Elon is in the south.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It absolutely depends on the college. Some like Elon and Syracuse that are private and expensive have declining enrollments.

Some like large D1 public schools, especially in the South, have increasing enrollment.

The cliff thing is a red herring to explain away why certain schools have declining enrollments.

Today’s winner for the stupidest comment on DCUM.

Hey idiot, the South is growing, no cliff here. The cliff is in the blue, no growth, high tax states who have been chasing people and business away for years. Now the mid schools there are claiming "cliff" as the excuse for the no growth policies that caused the local cliff.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It absolutely depends on the college. Some like Elon and Syracuse that are private and expensive have declining enrollments.

Some like large D1 public schools, especially in the South, have increasing enrollment.

The cliff thing is a red herring to explain away why certain schools have declining enrollments.

Today’s winner for the stupidest comment on DCUM.

Why?

The cliff thing is just not relevant to a number of type of schools. Privates in the top 40. Big public flagships. Top LACs. I agree you will get a boost with full pay below these levels. But some will offer discounts to get butts in the door.

Anonymous wrote:It absolutely depends on the college. Some like Elon and Syracuse that are private and expensive have declining enrollments.

Some like large D1 public schools, especially in the South, have increasing enrollment.

The cliff thing is a red herring to explain away why certain schools have declining enrollments.

Today’s winner for the stupidest comment on DCUM.

Wait, I thought Elon was rising in the ranks - where did you hear declining enrollment?

It absolutely depends on the college. Some like Elon and Syracuse that are private and expensive have declining enrollments.

Some like large D1 public schools, especially in the South, have increasing enrollment.

The cliff thing is a red herring to explain away why certain schools have declining enrollments.

Anonymous wrote:The number of 18-year-old high school graduates peaked at 3.9 million last year and will continue to decline annually for the next 15 years.

Does this mean some.great colleges will be giving merit aid to kids who they wouldn't have considered in past years?

Yes, Occidental College had a 15% drop in yield last year, so it has responded by offering $15K "Occidental Commitment Scholarships" if students commit ED or EA. THis is not a good development

Anonymous wrote:No. They are all going to be in financial trouble and want full pay kids.

Hopefully tuition will decrease. 20 years ago I got full ride to a college that now cost $100k/year in tuition alone. So ridiculous.

No. They are all going to be in financial trouble and want full pay kids.

The number of 18-year-old high school graduates peaked at 3.9 million last year and will continue to decline annually for the next 15 years.

Does this mean some.great colleges will be giving merit aid to kids who they wouldn't have considered in past years?