Anonymous wrote:The most expensive schools will be even less diverse as only the wealthy will be able to afford the tuition and annual tuition increases. Not that that is a bad thing for most wealthy families or, by extension, the schools. That’s where they are already headed.

It's this. Our small private has not been impacted over the past couple years with impacts via Trump/DOGE etc and in fact our wait list has increased. There will always be those who can afford it, but the impacts will be less diversity.

The most expensive schools will be even less diverse as only the wealthy will be able to afford the tuition and annual tuition increases. Not that that is a bad thing for most wealthy families or, by extension, the schools. That’s where they are already headed.

Think of the current situation with higher ed to be a reasonable parallel (not just because of the economy, but because of the collective factors of cost and desirability). Top schools (some through manipulation without question) are seeing record numbers of applications and unprecedented demand. The result, of course, is absurdly low acceptance rate which is precisely what they’re after. At the same time, there are dozens of schools, most of which we’ve never heard of, that are closing their doors or struggling. People are re-evaluating the “need” for a four year degree and are unwilling to shell out serous money for a school perceived as lower tier.

In the context of DC area private schools, it’s a tiny microcosm of that. The “big whatever” schools have limitless demand, meaning there are plenty of families with plenty of money and demand outstrips (and probably will always outstrip) supply. Schools that are geographically further out, smaller and less well-known are feeling more pain. SSFS is one, but there are several K-8s that are seemingly on the ropes.

Every time there is any kind of recession, government layoffs/DOGE, COVID, 9/11, whatever, people always assume that suddenly Sidwell is going let in anyone. It doesn’t happen.

I will tell you this: since the DOGE disaster, it was a little bit harder for the best privates to get their yield, waitlists moved a bit more, financial aid requests increased, and every private- even the ones where you think everyone is wealthy- had at least a handful of parents that asked for more time to pay their tuition bills. Yet somehow applications didn’t stop rolling in.

Smaller privates will start to close.
Small religious ones will close for sure.
The wealth disparity will become greater.

By 2028 people will be lucky to have food.

Anonymous wrote:Yes but what insulates a school is sufficient oversupply of applicants.

*an oversupply of full-pay applicants or applicants who need very minimal aid

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It may impact the quality of student a bit. For example, our DC was offered a spot at a school but we did not take it because of extreme uncertainty re my job. Perhaps the school backfilled the spot from the WL and maybe that student was slightly less accomplished but I doubt it’s that different.

Please. There are more qualified students any given year than a school can take. Yours wasn’t the only smart cookie.

It really depends on the school. Not every school is Sidwell, Maret, GDS, etc. There are lots of smaller private schools that very much struggle with enrollment altogether, putting aside academic qualifications.

Yes but what insulates a school is sufficient oversupply of applicants.

Anonymous wrote:It may impact the quality of student a bit. For example, our DC was offered a spot at a school but we did not take it because of extreme uncertainty re my job. Perhaps the school backfilled the spot from the WL and maybe that student was slightly less accomplished but I doubt it’s that different.

Please. There are more qualified students any given year than a school can take. Yours wasn’t the only smart cookie.

I don't know about this area, but the Great Financial Crisis killed private schools in the Philadelphia Area, where I grew up, and which historically has very high rates of private school attendance. Whereas in many areas, private schools are reserved for the affluent, lower cost independent schools were much more common around there. Schools went from four classes per grade down to one, and enrollment tanked. Many schools closed.

Because of the k-shaped economy, my guess is the schools hardest hit will be the lower cost ones more populated by the middle to upper-middle class or those that have extremely high percentages of students on aid (50%+).

I was working in a private in 2006. Some families who were heavily leveraged or reliant on the financial sector for income did not renew their contracts. It was not a large number, but certainly a few spots opened up because of families experiencing financial stress.

All the families should be insulated enough already. Maybe they cut back on vacations a bit. No real impact.

It may impact the quality of student a bit. For example, our DC was offered a spot at a school but we did not take it because of extreme uncertainty re my job. Perhaps the school backfilled the spot from the WL and maybe that student was slightly less accomplished but I doubt it’s that different.

The top schools aren't impacted as there is so much money among many families and a long line of similar families ready to take their place.

I know the economy hasn't fallen off a cliff yet but in the past when we've gone into a recession is there a marked drop in private school enrollment or applications? Or are the families sending their kids to these schools insulated enough that they can keep their kids in school through bumpy economic patches?