Ugh, LinkedIn posts are the worst. Buyer beware.

Anonymous wrote:the system is really set up against the families who make 300-400k a year and been saving up for 15 years for college.

No aid so the $150k free spending family can go in for essentially free.

if you are middle class (under $150k a year) - saving for college is not smart.

go spend it or buy gold coins. and cash out when the kids are out of college.

I think your numbers are off. You can save for college making 300,000. Some people can even cash flow a public school if they make 300,000. And a lot of schools give aid for families making 150,000. It is the families that start making low 200,000 when their kids are in high school that don't get aid and haven't been able to save that are in trouble.

Apply to schools that your kid is above the average admitted student and you may very well see the cost discounted. My kid got huge merit scholarships from the privates they applied to.

32,000 toward 48,000 in tuition
36,000 toward 50,000 in tuition
30,000 toward 50,000 in tuition

We were surprised that Purdue gave a half tuition scholarship for STEM, the kid is not an engineering or CS major.

We weren't hunting for merit and we were surprised by how much of a discount was offered.

Merit should be seen more as a "coupon" to attract candidates that might otherwise go elsewhere. Don't confuse it with financial assistance.The top schools don't offer merit in most cases because they don't have to.

It depends. I grew up in Chevy Chase in the early 90s. My parents made $100,000 combined but had $1m in house equity. I was full pay at a private college. My parents did not contribute as they had two other kids in private DC high schools.

Because the URL isn't clean and LinkedIn is dumb, here's the stupid post by a consultant, spelling error not corrected:

Have a child applying to college? Work for a law school? Either way, here’s some eye-catching news.

Private colleges recently hit a record high tuition discount rate of 57.1% for first-time, full-time undergraduates, per the National Association of College and University Business Officers (NACUBO).

This means institutions discounted more than half of their sticker prices. We are seeing the demographic cliff and its early impact on higher education in this data.
This is not a sustainable model for many colleges, and it will hit law schools in 3-4 years.

An analogy would be you’re in a city with a lot of empty hotel rooms, and if the price for the room was listed at $500 for the night, that hotel without demand is happy to give you a room for $250 or less, versus having a completely empty room for no profit. But what happens in that city if demand stays down? A sizable number of those hotels will start to close.

The “city” is American Higher Education. The graph tells the story. Demand is only going to decrease, and while discount rates will stay high for awhile (again good for applicants) the market will correct. In this case a market correction means, sadly, hundreds of colleges shutting down. And likely scores of law schools to follow.

Law schools really need to figure this out quickly as the stakes have never been this high. What feels like the go-go years for applicant numbers to law schools now will hit an abrupt downturn in a few years as the pendelum inevitably swings back.

I don't understand why he's framing his post as some big reveal. We all know some schools throw merit money at lots of their kids. Isn't it common knownledge that the higher the discount rate, the more tenuous your financial position is apt to be? We have examples like Sweet Briar in the college side, but also Bed, Bath, & Beyond and JC Penny in the retail industry.

Anonymous wrote:That’s how I read this at least? Not sure how you get the discount and if it applies at all schools evenly.

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/mpspivey_have-a-child-applying-to-college-work-for-share-7467916103982231553-4-Co/?utm_source=social_share_send&utm_medium=ios_app&rcm=ACoAAAa-KCoBo0Q3wAOcWALQde-R-Gv4W5SHxlQ&utm_campaign=copy_link

Never, ever assume any information about college costs applies to all schools evenly or to all students and families. That is not at all how it works.

Need-based financial aid and merit scholarship money are two completely separate categories.

Most top schools don't offer merit discounts. Several offer zero merit whatsoever, while some others may offer a few super-competitive scholarships to a tiny number of admitted applicants. Instead, top schools tend to emphasize need-based financial aid, which is based on income and assets. Use their Net Price Calculators to see how much need-based aid you'd get.

If you aren't eligible for need-based aid, look for merit discounts at schools that are lower-ranked and where your kid's stats would be at the high end for the school. Colleges offering merit discounts may or may not end up with a final price close to your state flagship. Typically, they are still a bit more expensive. Colleges use enrollment management consultants with extensive algorithms to figure out how much merit to offer to persuade a student to attend. Think airline ticket pricing, but far more complex.

Anonymous wrote:How misleading.

It all depends on your assets and income and how badly they want your kid.

If the college is a reach for your kid, they're not going to offer merit. If it's a safety, they might be happy to offer a significant amount of merit to persuade you to stay. If you're wealthy, you're not getting any sort of financial aid.

So don't expect this graph to apply to everyone equally.

I was reading Selingo's book - it said the point of merit aid is to be competitive with State schools; So they may offer 10-20K to bridge the gap between State and Private. Let's say UVA vs NE - how many would choose NEW for double the cost? maybe if NE gave 15K then maybe?

Since the T10 don't have lower-cost State competitors they don't offer Merit.

the system is really set up against the families who make 300-400k a year and been saving up for 15 years for college.

No aid so the $150k free spending family can go in for essentially free.

if you are middle class (under $150k a year) - saving for college is not smart.

go spend it or buy gold coins. and cash out when the kids are out of college.

Anonymous wrote:That’s how I read this at least? Not sure how you get the discount and if it applies at all schools evenly.

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/mpspivey_have-a-child-applying-to-college-work-for-share-7467916103982231553-4-Co/?utm_source=social_share_send&utm_medium=ios_app&rcm=ACoAAAa-KCoBo0Q3wAOcWALQde-R-Gv4W5SHxlQ&utm_campaign=copy_link

Most (good) schools do not give merit discounts. They give "discounts" for need-based financial aid only. When you see an ivy that lists as 92k per year has an average cost of 24k that is because 60% get some sort of need-based aid, some pay 0, and 40% do not qualify and pay the full price of 92k. If you make more than 300k you are paying the 92k per year it does not matter if you are hooked or super smart or the top debater in the country there is no discount.

Schools that have trouble filling seats and/or want to attract out of state students offer "merit" to a large section of students, over 50% of those who are full-pay(over 300k) receive discounts. They are not really "merit": many above average, not-outstanding students who cannot get into UVA, VT, or William and Mary because they do not have the scores grades or rigor, get in to Tennessee, Ole Miss, Auburn and get lots of "merit" making those schools net cost around 40k . That is hardly merit when the student is not good enough to get into any of the three top VA schools.
REAL merit is rare full cost of attendance or at least full tuition, offered to fewer than 5% of the incoming class without regard to need(no fafsa no css), typically at Top50ish schools, a few T10s have some. Sometimes it is tied to demographic hooks though that has mostly stopped.

Unpopular private schools throw merit money at over 50% of the attendees. They try to buy students. They are the schools that are in danger with the enrollment cliff. Any LAC below top-20 and Any uni below Top-60 should be highly scrutinized as far as financial security. Look at WVU, they have huge problems, as the flagship nonetheless, and shuttered many departments.

Anonymous wrote:That’s how I read this at least? Not sure how you get the discount and if it applies at all schools evenly.

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/mpspivey_have-a-child-applying-to-college-work-for-share-7467916103982231553-4-Co/?utm_source=social_share_send&utm_medium=ios_app&rcm=ACoAAAa-KCoBo0Q3wAOcWALQde-R-Gv4W5SHxlQ&utm_campaign=copy_link

It’s an average, not a guarantee.

How misleading.

It all depends on your assets and income and how badly they want your kid.

If the college is a reach for your kid, they're not going to offer merit. If it's a safety, they might be happy to offer a significant amount of merit to persuade you to stay. If you're wealthy, you're not getting any sort of financial aid.

So don't expect this graph to apply to everyone equally.

That’s how I read this at least? Not sure how you get the discount and if it applies at all schools evenly.

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/mpspivey_have-a-child-applying-to-college-work-for-share-7467916103982231553-4-Co/?utm_source=social_share_send&utm_medium=ios_app&rcm=ACoAAAa-KCoBo0Q3wAOcWALQde-R-Gv4W5SHxlQ&utm_campaign=copy_link