I saw the writing on the wall back in 2011 in my state when people were all over town collecting signatures to raise the Min wage. I knew exactly how things would spiral out of control.
In the military, off base landlords raise rents every Oct when pay raises are given. Same in the civilian sector year round when wages go up. Increased wages force businesses to raise prices. It's a vicious circle.

Here's the bottom line though.

A small business isn't going to pay $20 for a teenager that has no skills or maturity. The stepping stones for teens have been eliminated. Now every adult thinks they deserve even higher wages to afford inflation.
All the while teens and these younger adults have Never had to learn work ethics and motivation to better their selves out of min wage. That leads to a larger divide yearly of the haves and have nots.

Anonymous wrote:I lost ca $40k to wage theft from 1997-2005 and beyond. That's a lot of money for a minimum wage worker.
The $0s in my SS will follow me forever. That's how businesses stayed in business. It's much harder now. Employees know exactly how to report it.
I disagree with the restaurant wages for servers. $10 an hours is a lot of money at the time when all other expenses are also up. The owners should have prepared, but how.
The payroll is absolutely the biggest expense. We need 7 servers at the same time at peak house. That's costs $70+, but used to be $20. Big difference and that change came after Covid mostly as restaurant needed time to recover.
I have told the owner 100X to close and go zip on Pina-Coladas somewhere.

If you need 7 servers peak, then peak you are making good money.

Anonymous wrote:I would be curious to see the statistics about new businesses opening and closing. It would also be interesting to see this broken down by states and their minimum wage.

My family and I lament the lack of mom and Pop restaurants that we have in Montgomery County. The majority that are opening up our all chain restaurants. Is it because they’re the only ones that can afford the red tape, minimum wage requirements and can float several months of waiting for the counties various licensing requirements?

Not that many are chains. Plenty of mom an pop..

I run a small business. I have no full time employees. I probably never will. I have 3 pt strictly summer employees I hire for the busy season. I've had them all for about a decade. It is extra seasonal money for them -one is a school teacher who likes having a summer gig- it is extra help for me. All taxes are paid and reported. But, although my business provides me with a top 10 percent national income, it isn't labor intensive. I know a lot of 2 to 6 person businesses that thrive but are very niche businesses that aren't public focused so don't need an army of employees.

I lost ca $40k to wage theft from 1997-2005 and beyond. That's a lot of money for a minimum wage worker.
The $0s in my SS will follow me forever. That's how businesses stayed in business. It's much harder now. Employees know exactly how to report it.
I disagree with the restaurant wages for servers. $10 an hours is a lot of money at the time when all other expenses are also up. The owners should have prepared, but how.
The payroll is absolutely the biggest expense. We need 7 servers at the same time at peak house. That's costs $70+, but used to be $20. Big difference and that change came after Covid mostly as restaurant needed time to recover.
I have told the owner 100X to close and go zip on Pina-Coladas somewhere.

It's always been true that the counter to the old saw "small businesses are job creators" is that small businesses also lose roughly equal amount of jobs each year because they fail.

Anonymous wrote:If you can't afford to pay your employees you shouldn't be in business. That goes for small businesses with just 1-2 employees.

I just started a business and this is where I come out.

There is something structurally and morally problematic with wanting to increase your wealth by shortchanging employees.

If you can't afford to pay your employees you shouldn't be in business. That goes for small businesses with just 1-2 employees.

Anonymous wrote:I think there’s a huge boom of small businesses providing services online. The cost of so much has come down to almost nothing. Getting an office or “office” set up, software, making custom software, creating high quality content, all of that went from very hard and expensive to anyone can do it for next to free.

+1
Or small businesses that aren't restaurants.
We have the most interesting strip mall down the way and there a mom & pop mailboxes place and I think a husband and wife work all the hours. Same thing with the drycleaner and this cobbler/sundry place. I think when it's 9-5 type jobs, it's easier to staff than a restaurant or a gym, etc.

I think there’s a huge boom of small businesses providing services online. The cost of so much has come down to almost nothing. Getting an office or “office” set up, software, making custom software, creating high quality content, all of that went from very hard and expensive to anyone can do it for next to free.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I would be curious to see the statistics about new businesses opening and closing. It would also be interesting to see this broken down by states and their minimum wage.

My family and I lament the lack of mom and Pop restaurants that we have in Montgomery County. The majority that are opening up our all chain restaurants. Is it because they’re the only ones that can afford the red tape, minimum wage requirements and can float several months of waiting for the counties various licensing requirements?

For restaurants, it's rent, followed by being able to find/keep staff...not so much the staff salaries, no matter what the fat cat DC restaurateurs tell you. Reliable staff are worth the pay raises, but constant increases in food costs and meals taxes impact customer spending negatively (people eat out less and/or spend less when they do) while rents just keep going up.

The other thing is that most restaurants fail in the first 5 years. This has always been the case.

https://get.chownow.com/blog/restaurant-failure-rate/

My granddad ran an antique fittings and furniture shop that slowed and we always thought it was because he didn't pivot to online sales. But then the guy who bought it heavily did online sales and couldn't keep it going either. So markets just change sometimes too.

That’s true, restaurants are a whole other ball of wax.

My point still stands about the lack of mom and Pop restaurants in the county.

At least in Montgomery County retail, Mom and pop shops are also lacking. I don’t know about the non-retail businesses since they’re not in the public eye if that makes any sense.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I would be curious to see the statistics about new businesses opening and closing. It would also be interesting to see this broken down by states and their minimum wage.

My family and I lament the lack of mom and Pop restaurants that we have in Montgomery County. The majority that are opening up our all chain restaurants. Is it because they’re the only ones that can afford the red tape, minimum wage requirements and can float several months of waiting for the counties various licensing requirements?

For restaurants, it's rent, followed by being able to find/keep staff...not so much the staff salaries, no matter what the fat cat DC restaurateurs tell you. Reliable staff are worth the pay raises, but constant increases in food costs and meals taxes impact customer spending negatively (people eat out less and/or spend less when they do) while rents just keep going up.

The other thing is that most restaurants fail in the first 5 years. This has always been the case.

https://get.chownow.com/blog/restaurant-failure-rate/

My granddad ran an antique fittings and furniture shop that slowed and we always thought it was because he didn't pivot to online sales. But then the guy who bought it heavily did online sales and couldn't keep it going either. So markets just change sometimes too.

Anonymous wrote:I would be curious to see the statistics about new businesses opening and closing. It would also be interesting to see this broken down by states and their minimum wage.

My family and I lament the lack of mom and Pop restaurants that we have in Montgomery County. The majority that are opening up our all chain restaurants. Is it because they’re the only ones that can afford the red tape, minimum wage requirements and can float several months of waiting for the counties various licensing requirements?

For restaurants, it's rent, followed by being able to find/keep staff...not so much the staff salaries, no matter what the fat cat DC restaurateurs tell you. Reliable staff are worth the pay raises, but constant increases in food costs and meals taxes impact customer spending negatively (people eat out less and/or spend less when they do) while rents just keep going up.

I would be curious to see the statistics about new businesses opening and closing. It would also be interesting to see this broken down by states and their minimum wage.

My family and I lament the lack of mom and Pop restaurants that we have in Montgomery County. The majority that are opening up our all chain restaurants. Is it because they’re the only ones that can afford the red tape, minimum wage requirements and can float several months of waiting for the counties various licensing requirements?

I have had several members of my family who ran small businesses for several decades right up until about 20 years ago when their profit margins could not keep up with the various expenses involved with running the business such as having to pay the employees $10 an hour.

My family members all threw in the towel 20 years ago.

Have we finally reached a point where the business expenses (such as having to pay employees $20+ an hour) are just too high for most small businesses to survive? Wages, retail rents etc... Its just no longer feasible in my opinion.

Will 2026, 2027, 2028 end up being the final nail in the coffin for the few small businesses that are left?