Anonymous wrote:Jawando has the same base as Elrich, which isn't huge. Elrich benefitted from having lots of people in the democratic primary the first time and then Blair and Riemer competing for the same voters last time.
The race is between Jawando and Friedson. and Glass does take votes away from Friedson. I don't know, though, if Jawando has what it takes to pull this off. Nobody but Mink likes him. He constantly burns bridges and can't get allies. Just like Elrich.
Balcomb and Luedtke just endorsed Friedson upcounty, so if upcounty actually comes out and votes, Friedson will win. But they usually don't. I do hear anecdotally from folks who have switched from independent to Democrat to vote for Friedson. People are finally acknowledging they throw their votes away if they aren't registered as democrats.
Friedson will have the late media advantage. He has the money to run ads. If a lot of people remain undecided, they will likely swing for Friedson because of exposure.
Any take conditioned on “if upcounty turns out” will not pan out. If upcounty turns out, downcounty will turn out too. Downcounty has more people.
Jawando’s base is a bit broader than Elrich’s base. Sure, Jawando’s colleagues don’t seem to care for him. But a lot of people don’t care for Jawando’s colleagues, so the more the other council members complain about Jawando, the more some people will like him. This dynamic helped Elrich in his first run for executive.
Of the three, Friedson is the candidate with the narrowest base. He’s never run countywide before. A lot of his district is really mad at him over the zoning bills and the Little Falls Parkway debacle. His countywide appeal is concentrated among hard core YIMBYs, the same group that carried Hans Riemer to a third-place finish. Hans was a better candidate than Friedson. Money will help Friedson but Glass will peal off more votes from Friedson than Riemer took from Blair.
It will be Glass or Jawando. Friedson has been fighting to show that his campaign is viable despite have more than $1 million in the bank. At this point, it looks like Jawando to me.