I would say it is a long shot.
There is some student turn over in 9th grade when some kids go to Science and Tech or other specialty programs but after that they probably only lose a handful of kids a year.

My rising 11th grader is waitlisted at #15. Any chance of admission?

Depends on grade and where you live. If you don’t live in the neighborhoods with the set aside and it’s an older grade, chances are less.

Ditto - good chance of getting in

Thanks! That's great news.

You have a good chance of getting in. A lot of people apply without considering that that transportation isn't provided.
The number isn't arbitrary, it is where you are on the waitlist. The only caveat is that a certain percentage of the seats at CPA are reserved for people who live in a specific area. They might be maintaining 2 separate waitlists to keep that ratio correct.

Hi everyone,

My rising 6th grader got waitlisted at number 4 for CPA.

Does anybody have any insight or experience on how and how much the waitlist moves up, and whether we have a real shot at being offered a seat?

We've heard contradictory comments: some say your number is arbitrary and that you could be number 1 and still have 100 people below you moving up and being offered a seat before you, while others say the number is exactly how many people away you are from being offered a seat.

I'd appreciate your valuable insights.

Thx!