Anonymous
Post 03/06/2026 12:21     Subject: Data-driven lottery predictions!
Anonymous wrote:PK3: (actually live within Powell boundaries)
LAMB
Oyster
Powell
Bancroft (English)
Bruce-Monroe (English)
Marie Reed (English)
Lewis
Barnard
Dorothy Height


OP with some clarifying questions.

So you have IB preference at Powell?

Which schools (if any) would you move for after school starts.
Anonymous
Post 03/06/2026 12:12     Subject: Data-driven lottery predictions!
PK3: (actually live within Powell boundaries)
LAMB
Oyster
Powell
Bancroft (English)
Bruce-Monroe (English)
Marie Reed (English)
Lewis
Barnard
Dorothy Height
Anonymous
Post 03/06/2026 12:07     Subject: Data-driven lottery predictions!
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Ooo.

Folks may recognize me from other threads:

Ross
Garrison
ITDS
EL Haynes
John Lewis
Lee Montessori - Brookland

K and 1st, they'll have sibling preference with each other.

Would absolutely move after school starts.


OP here. Two kids at once gives you a big leg up, but also makes this harder to calculate. I went ahead and assumed that if one gets in to a school, they pull the other one in to simplify the math. That's probably mostly a reasonable assumption, but probably over-represents your odds a bit, particularly for Ross where they take so few kids, and for an October waitlist offer, which may come too late to bring in the other. So keep that in mind when looking at this - your chances are probably lower than this (esp. at Ross).

Oh and note to everyone - I'm using five year averages for this.

Ross - 23%
Garrison - 73%
ITDS - 0%
Haynes - 0%
Lewis - 2%
Lee - 0%
Nothing - 2%

Bottom line - have fun at Garrison!


Wait, zero at Lee? Lee Brookland made 21 K and 15 1st grade offers last year. Are you using the October column?


OP here - yes, you would have a decent shot at Lee, except if you're getting into Lee, you're getting into Garrison, and Garrison is listed first. So that takes Lee off the table. Sorry - if you were excited about Lee, you'd need to list it above schools like Garrison and John Lewis to have any chance of matching there.


Correct. You must list in preference order!


Also, PP, it’s not too late! You can reorder your list until 3/13, I believe!
Anonymous
Post 03/06/2026 12:04     Subject: Data-driven lottery predictions!
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Ooo.

Folks may recognize me from other threads:

Ross
Garrison
ITDS
EL Haynes
John Lewis
Lee Montessori - Brookland

K and 1st, they'll have sibling preference with each other.

Would absolutely move after school starts.


OP here. Two kids at once gives you a big leg up, but also makes this harder to calculate. I went ahead and assumed that if one gets in to a school, they pull the other one in to simplify the math. That's probably mostly a reasonable assumption, but probably over-represents your odds a bit, particularly for Ross where they take so few kids, and for an October waitlist offer, which may come too late to bring in the other. So keep that in mind when looking at this - your chances are probably lower than this (esp. at Ross).

Oh and note to everyone - I'm using five year averages for this.

Ross - 23%
Garrison - 73%
ITDS - 0%
Haynes - 0%
Lewis - 2%
Lee - 0%
Nothing - 2%

Bottom line - have fun at Garrison!


Wait, zero at Lee? Lee Brookland made 21 K and 15 1st grade offers last year. Are you using the October column?


OP here - yes, you would have a decent shot at Lee, except if you're getting into Lee, you're getting into Garrison, and Garrison is listed first. So that takes Lee off the table. Sorry - if you were excited about Lee, you'd need to list it above schools like Garrison and John Lewis to have any chance of matching there.


Correct. You must list in preference order!
Anonymous
Post 03/06/2026 12:00     Subject: Data-driven lottery predictions!
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Ooo.

Folks may recognize me from other threads:

Ross
Garrison
ITDS
EL Haynes
John Lewis
Lee Montessori - Brookland

K and 1st, they'll have sibling preference with each other.

Would absolutely move after school starts.


OP here. Two kids at once gives you a big leg up, but also makes this harder to calculate. I went ahead and assumed that if one gets in to a school, they pull the other one in to simplify the math. That's probably mostly a reasonable assumption, but probably over-represents your odds a bit, particularly for Ross where they take so few kids, and for an October waitlist offer, which may come too late to bring in the other. So keep that in mind when looking at this - your chances are probably lower than this (esp. at Ross).

Oh and note to everyone - I'm using five year averages for this.

Ross - 23%
Garrison - 73%
ITDS - 0%
Haynes - 0%
Lewis - 2%
Lee - 0%
Nothing - 2%

Bottom line - have fun at Garrison!


Wait, zero at Lee? Lee Brookland made 21 K and 15 1st grade offers last year. Are you using the October column?


OP here - yes, you would have a decent shot at Lee, except if you're getting into Lee, you're getting into Garrison, and Garrison is listed first. So that takes Lee off the table. Sorry - if you were excited about Lee, you'd need to list it above schools like Garrison and John Lewis to have any chance of matching there.
Anonymous
Post 03/06/2026 11:58     Subject: Data-driven lottery predictions!
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Ooo.

Folks may recognize me from other threads:

Ross
Garrison
ITDS
EL Haynes
John Lewis
Lee Montessori - Brookland

K and 1st, they'll have sibling preference with each other.

Would absolutely move after school starts.


OP here. Two kids at once gives you a big leg up, but also makes this harder to calculate. I went ahead and assumed that if one gets in to a school, they pull the other one in to simplify the math. That's probably mostly a reasonable assumption, but probably over-represents your odds a bit, particularly for Ross where they take so few kids, and for an October waitlist offer, which may come too late to bring in the other. So keep that in mind when looking at this - your chances are probably lower than this (esp. at Ross).

Oh and note to everyone - I'm using five year averages for this.

Ross - 23%
Garrison - 73%
ITDS - 0%
Haynes - 0%
Lewis - 2%
Lee - 0%
Nothing - 2%

Bottom line - have fun at Garrison!


Wait, zero at Lee? Lee Brookland made 21 K and 15 1st grade offers last year. Are you using the October column?
Anonymous
Post 03/06/2026 11:56     Subject: Data-driven lottery predictions!
Anonymous wrote:Ooo.

Folks may recognize me from other threads:

Ross
Garrison
ITDS
EL Haynes
John Lewis
Lee Montessori - Brookland

K and 1st, they'll have sibling preference with each other.

Would absolutely move after school starts.


OP here. Two kids at once gives you a big leg up, but also makes this harder to calculate. I went ahead and assumed that if one gets in to a school, they pull the other one in to simplify the math. That's probably mostly a reasonable assumption, but probably over-represents your odds a bit, particularly for Ross where they take so few kids, and for an October waitlist offer, which may come too late to bring in the other. So keep that in mind when looking at this - your chances are probably lower than this (esp. at Ross).

Oh and note to everyone - I'm using five year averages for this.

Ross - 23%
Garrison - 73%
ITDS - 0%
Haynes - 0%
Lewis - 2%
Lee - 0%
Nothing - 2%

Bottom line - have fun at Garrison!
Anonymous
Post 03/06/2026 11:44     Subject: Data-driven lottery predictions!
Ooo.

Folks may recognize me from other threads:

Ross
Garrison
ITDS
EL Haynes
John Lewis
Lee Montessori - Brookland

K and 1st, they'll have sibling preference with each other.

Would absolutely move after school starts.
Anonymous
Post 03/06/2026 11:38     Subject: Data-driven lottery predictions!
Anonymous wrote:2nd grade

Shepherd
Lafayette
Murch

No preferences. Wouldn't move (or need to).


OP here - thank you for playing! Assuming you would take a WL offer over the summer:

Shepherd - 11%
Lafayette - 8%
Murch - 0%
Nothing - 81%

Best of luck to you!
Anonymous
Post 03/06/2026 11:30     Subject: Data-driven lottery predictions!
Anonymous wrote:What resources are you using?


OP here.

This dashboard with historic seats and waitlist movement:

https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/aaron2446/viz/MSDCSeatsandWaitlistOfferData_draft/MSDCPublicDisplay

Combined with this one that lets you see the preferences for waitlisted people where applicable:

https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiYjA5ZmM4Y2MtZThmOC00YjVkLTkwN2EtMzIwNzU2MjYwNmZkIiwidCI6IjJhYTA0NmVlLWIzNGUtNGEzMy05MmI3LTk5OWRmMmJjMGEzMiIsImMiOjF9&pageName=ReportSection9c9c63d3e065263500e1

Plus knowledge of the lottery process and some hand-wavy assumptions.
Anonymous
Post 03/06/2026 11:21     Subject: Data-driven lottery predictions!
2nd grade

Shepherd
Lafayette
Murch

No preferences. Wouldn't move (or need to).
Anonymous
Post 03/06/2026 11:19     Subject: Data-driven lottery predictions!
What resources are you using?
Anonymous
Post 03/06/2026 10:57     Subject: Data-driven lottery predictions!
Anonymous wrote:Can you share a git repo? We can make this into a site.


OP here - ha - I'm not that fancy, this is a combo of back-of-the-napkin and google sheets.
Anonymous
Post 03/06/2026 10:53     Subject: Data-driven lottery predictions!
Can you share a git repo? We can make this into a site.
Anonymous
Post 03/06/2026 10:51     Subject: Data-driven lottery predictions!
I'm having a slow day at work - I just ran the numbers (based on past lottery seats, waitlist progress, etc) predicting my family's chances in the lottery this year (low, ha, we only went for reaches). Happy to run the math for other folks!

Please provide:
Grade
School list (in order)
Preferences (if applicable)
Which schools you'd move for if you got an offer after school starts

PK, Elem, and Middle only, I don't know anything about the application high school process.