Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:If the war last longer than 6 months yes

We were at war for 20 years in Iraq and Afghanistan and the market did great.

Great is relative...I mean, it took until 2013 for the S&P to return to its 2000 high. In between, you had 9/11, Iraq/Afghanistan wars, 08/09 financial crisis.

It did great from 2013 until 2021, but the bulk of the war expense happened prior to 2013.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:If the war last longer than 6 months yes

We were at war for 20 years in Iraq and Afghanistan and the market did great.

I know we are invincible.

That was not my point. My point was that another middle-east war is not going to cause a major stock market correction.

Anonymous wrote:My guess is around 47k, but I will continue to DCA

Me too. It's what I've done for every other crash, and it's worked out fine. Money I need in the nearterm (529 plan for high schooler, emergency fund) is already in cash equivalents, and I have a job, so it doesn't matter.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:If the war last longer than 6 months yes

We were at war for 20 years in Iraq and Afghanistan and the market did great.

I know we are invincible.

Anonymous wrote:If the war last longer than 6 months yes

We were at war for 20 years in Iraq and Afghanistan and the market did great.

If the war last longer than 6 months yes

Anonymous wrote:If you were to guess do you think the Dow will end up below 40000 by end of the year?

Yes and I have the puts to prove it.

If we do not reach 60000 we are in deep trouble. I don't think the average person is aware how juiced up this economy is right now. The administration has unleashed a policy designed to help the market take off like a rocket. If we failed to reach 60k despite all these tax cuts and deregulation all the dash flowing to businesses and people then we are in serious trouble.

You create deficit and fail to get to 5% GDP wow good luck

My guess is around 47k, but I will continue to DCA

My guess is that we finish the year at 49000.

i guess i could hit 50-53000

For the sake of those who stared investing post COVID I hope it does. Those people think the market is risk free. They laugh at anything under 10% return. They need a wake up call. Some of those people are even shortening their emergency fund reserve because they are still high on VOO euphoria of the past 5 years.

No. I mean it might crash sometime in the fall, but it won’t be a long term. Too many institutions have too much riding on it.

I'm concerned about this low hire/fire environment and persisting inflation. I'm worried about stagflation. And I'm further concerned that investors are finally worried about the level of debt of the US government.

With this in mind, I don't know where we will end up. Having said that, it will be closer to 40000 than 50000.

But what do I know? Nothing. Dont make investment decisions by listening to strangers like me who think they understand economics but they are just guessing.

If you were to guess do you think the Dow will end up below 40000 by end of the year?