This list seems very aggressive to me for any student without substantial hooks. Other than Florida, I'd say you have a shoot the moon list here.

The 1500 won't be disqualifying but if you don't have any hooks, even with a 4.0, I'd say that the only targets you have here at Villanova and UMD. Florida OOS could be a likely but I'm less familiar with it.

FYI, Boston College fills a lot of its slots ED (I think Nova does too, and they may have ED 2).

There's no harm in applying to all these reaches (other than to you pocketbook and your DC's patience for writing supplementals), but I'd suggest you round out your list much more and be prepared for heartbreak. I'd want an early win -- Pitt is great for that, with rolling admissions, and seems like it might be a good fit for your DC who wants big and urban.

Your chat GPT counselor is delusionally optimistic.

—human counselor

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Without amazing ECs, Penn and Duke are hopeless. The SAT isn't the issue.

I disagree. 1500 SAT is in range for Penn and Duke. ECs aren't the only determinant for college. Intended major, rigor of coursework, GPA, class rank, legacy status, etc. all come into play.

Everyone will have some combination of those. Penn and Duke aren't likely to happen.

Anonymous wrote:We’ve looked at Naviance, and at least at our school the outcomes really do vary. I can’t quite understand why a student with a 1430 might get in while someone with a 1580 doesn’t.

I’m also curious how people define “amazing” extracurriculars. Are there concrete examples of what’s considered good versus great?

Thank you! And is anyone else navigating this without relying on a counselor?

When you look at Naviance, don't look at the outliers. Look at the consensus.
The 1580 kid may be rejected because he applied to Wharton and doesn't have matching ECs. The 1430 may be accepted because he is FGLI or URM.

In your 1480-1520 range, what percentage was accepted?

Anonymous wrote:We’ve looked at Naviance, and at least at our school the outcomes really do vary. I can’t quite understand why a student with a 1430 might get in while someone with a 1580 doesn’t.

I’m also curious how people define “amazing” extracurriculars. Are there concrete examples of what’s considered good versus great?

Thank you! And is anyone else navigating this without relying on a counselor?

I do alumni interviews for an Ivy and you have no idea how homogeneous files of strong students generally look. It's the 1500(+) SAT applicants who stand out in some way, and have a cohesive narrative, that have some chance at the high reaches. Especially in the DMV, where strong unhooked applicants are a dime a dozen and kids are competing against international Olympiad medalists, award-winning musicians, recruited athletes, published researchers, VIP kids etc. (great ECs) The competition is simply brutal. Good = leadership in school clubs, editing the school newspaper, long-term commitment to music, art, athletics, Scouts. Not likely to move the needle at a high reach but with strong essays, solid chance at a high target.

A 1430 kid is not getting into a T-10 unless hooked, usually FGLI and representing geographic diversity as well.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Without amazing ECs, Penn and Duke are hopeless. The SAT isn't the issue.

I disagree. 1500 SAT is in range for Penn and Duke. ECs aren't the only determinant for college. Intended major, rigor of coursework, GPA, class rank, legacy status, etc. all come into play.

+1 It's a crapshoot at those schools. Doesn't hurt to apply as long as you have a solid roster of more attainable universities.

Anonymous wrote:We’ve looked at Naviance, and at least at our school the outcomes really do vary. I can’t quite understand why a student with a 1430 might get in while someone with a 1580 doesn’t.

I’m also curious how people define “amazing” extracurriculars. Are there concrete examples of what’s considered good versus great?

Thank you! And is anyone else navigating this without relying on a counselor?

The way I look at it, you have Penn, Duke, WUSTL, Vandy, UM, UVA, UNCOOS as reaches. Getting in any single one, you call it a win this year. Celebrate it.

You have a short list of targets (BC, UT, Villanova), which may be fine. But I would recommend adding Case EA in your target list. Get the result by 12/18. Adjust your list based on that outcome. If it's an acceptance with merit, I would stick to the reach list.

We’ve looked at Naviance, and at least at our school the outcomes really do vary. I can’t quite understand why a student with a 1430 might get in while someone with a 1580 doesn’t.

I’m also curious how people define “amazing” extracurriculars. Are there concrete examples of what’s considered good versus great?

Thank you! And is anyone else navigating this without relying on a counselor?

UVA is a reach not a target. Probably UNC CH too.

Anonymous wrote:OOS to UNC is not 30-40%. It's 8-9%. My kid just applied EA with 4.0 UW and 1560 and considers it a reach.

I think the numbers are estimates from gpt, not the schools' actual acceptance rates.

OOS to UNC is not 30-40%. It's 8-9%. My kid just applied EA with 4.0 UW and 1560 and considers it a reach.

Anonymous wrote:Without amazing ECs, Penn and Duke are hopeless. The SAT isn't the issue.

I disagree. 1500 SAT is in range for Penn and Duke. ECs aren't the only determinant for college. Intended major, rigor of coursework, GPA, class rank, legacy status, etc. all come into play.

Don't you have naviance to verify this?

Without amazing ECs, Penn and Duke are hopeless. The SAT isn't the issue.

Kid is 1500 on his SATs, which after 3x is probably where it will stay. 4.0 Trying to build list and don't have counselor. Strong extracurriculars from area public but no crazy summer programs or sports that are recruitable. Interested in larger schools. Undecided for major. How did my chat gpt counselor do? Did any kids you know with these profiles get in? He liked his visit to Michigan and UVA. We love Wash U. Is Vandy & Duke or Penn even in play or a waste of application time.

🔴 REACH (1500 = still reach, but legit)

RD
University of Pennsylvania
~8–12%

Duke University
~10–15%


🟠 REACH / HIGH TARGET
Washington University in St. Louis
~30–35% (ED)
or
Vanderbilt University
~25–30% (ED)
---

University of Michigan
~40–50% (EA)

🟢 TARGET

EA
University of Virginia
~35–45%

University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
~30–40% (OOS)

RD
Boston College
~45–55%

🟢 LIKELY / TARGET (1500 = strong)

University of Texas at Austin (EA)
~45–55% (OOS)

Villanova University (RD)
~60–70%

🟢 LIKELY (1500 = very strong)

University of Florida (EA)
~70–80%

University of Maryland (EA)
*~80%+