Anonymous wrote:
https://dme.dc.gov/node/1741391

This spreadsheet shows where students attending each school are assigned. You can use it to see that kids IB for Cardozo go to a wide variety of other schools.

https://edscape.dc.gov/page/student-enrollment-pathways

This shows where kids go year-over-year. Graduates of Seaton, Garrison, and Cleveland go all over the place.

Another source of kids for Euclid is kids who live IB for Euclid but don't go to a school that feeds anywhere. Such as Lee and Sela.

Doesn't show last year, though -- I know many of the kids from Seaton opted to go to Francis.

https://dme.dc.gov/node/1741391

This spreadsheet shows where students attending each school are assigned. You can use it to see that kids IB for Cardozo go to a wide variety of other schools.

https://edscape.dc.gov/page/student-enrollment-pathways

This shows where kids go year-over-year. Graduates of Seaton, Garrison, and Cleveland go all over the place.

Another source of kids for Euclid is kids who live IB for Euclid but don't go to a school that feeds anywhere. Such as Lee and Sela.

Anonymous wrote:I’m in a different feeder pattern but have friends at Seaton and Cleveland who are counting hard on this school succeeding.

Middle class Garrison parents lobbied the hardest for it as far as I can tell so it arguably would be pretty hypocritical of them to not to send their kids. Unless I’m wrong and they weren’t the driving force behind this?

Garrison parents did a lot and their principal was influential, but certain Seaton parents were leaders too.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think there is exactly one thing that will make or break Euclid:

Do the high achieving, high test scores kids from Garrison, Seaton, and Marie Reed (I don't think there are more than a couple of these kids by the later grades at Cleveland, Tubman and Cooke) stay the very first year? I believe that's current 3rd graders.

Basically, if you've got a third grade kid getting 3s or 4s on PARC at one of those school, it's up to you.

Not exaggerating: this could come down to 20 kids. If they go that first year, you'll have a cohort of kids doing on/above grade level work and it'll snowball. More and more kids will go every year, and you'll end up with test scores similar to Seaton (about a third at or above grade level) and decent neighborhood buy in indefinitely.

If that number is less than 10 kids, the school will never recover, it'll look like Cardozo did or if it does, it'll be 10+ years from now.

I think this is really true.

I think is some nervousness among that grade (current 3rd graders) about being guinea pigs. Many will peel off -- some of them are younger siblings, so they will likely follow their older siblings to Francis; others will take Latin or BASIS if they get in. It will be fascinating to see what happens.

Here's a question for the lottery nerds: if a family does take a risk on Euclid and it doesn't work out, what are your lottery options for 7th grade? Are you basically stuck at your inbound at that point? Presumably you have a snowball's chance in hell at Latin, but what about ITS? Sojourner? Eliot-Hine? Stuart-Hobson? John Francis? Do they even take kids in 7th grade?

Latin, DCI: Haha
ITS: About a 1 in 3 chance
Sojourner: A bit of a wildcard. Most years, they've cleared their waitlist for 7th but a couple years ago there were almost 50 kids sitting on it who didn't get a spot
SH: 50/50
EH: That's probably your best bet. Looks like they take about everybody for 7th
John Francis: Also varies a lot by year, but looks like about 1 in 3 overall

So, you might have some options if you needed to call an audible, and you'd likely have Eliot-Hine as a fallback. Not too bad, as risks go. And you could always rent a place in bounds for Deal or Hardy for two years.

If I were a parent of a 3rd grader I'd probably do it IF I asked around and could fine at least a handful of other smart kids my kid liked who were going. I mean, people are always wanting to make a difference. A parent of a smart 3rd grader at one of those schools REALLY has the opportunity to make a difference. Could change the fate of that school for decades. That's appealing.

Yup. This is why people are working so hard to make Euclid happen! The options are just not great. I suppose you could look at EL Haynes and Cap City. It does seem like the numbers are highly variable year to year. It's hard to predict when schools will expand capacity-- I know some schools aren't using all of their building, but they could use more if the demand was there. And John Francis will have more open lottery spots for middle school after the Euclid feeders lose their IB status there.

Near multiple bus lines and a doable walk from the U St metro, I think the Euclid location will be appealing to many, including those IB for McKinley Middle, Brookland, Jefferson, and MacFarland.

Anonymous wrote:I’m in a different feeder pattern but have friends at Seaton and Cleveland who are counting hard on this school succeeding.

Middle class Garrison parents lobbied the hardest for it as far as I can tell so it arguably would be pretty hypocritical of them to not to send their kids. Unless I’m wrong and they weren’t the driving force behind this?

I also have friends at Garrison with the same attitude, but their kids are younger than 3rd grade.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think there is exactly one thing that will make or break Euclid:

Do the high achieving, high test scores kids from Garrison, Seaton, and Marie Reed (I don't think there are more than a couple of these kids by the later grades at Cleveland, Tubman and Cooke) stay the very first year? I believe that's current 3rd graders.

Basically, if you've got a third grade kid getting 3s or 4s on PARC at one of those school, it's up to you.

Not exaggerating: this could come down to 20 kids. If they go that first year, you'll have a cohort of kids doing on/above grade level work and it'll snowball. More and more kids will go every year, and you'll end up with test scores similar to Seaton (about a third at or above grade level) and decent neighborhood buy in indefinitely.

If that number is less than 10 kids, the school will never recover, it'll look like Cardozo did or if it does, it'll be 10+ years from now.

I think this is really true.

I think is some nervousness among that grade (current 3rd graders) about being guinea pigs. Many will peel off -- some of them are younger siblings, so they will likely follow their older siblings to Francis; others will take Latin or BASIS if they get in. It will be fascinating to see what happens.

Here's a question for the lottery nerds: if a family does take a risk on Euclid and it doesn't work out, what are your lottery options for 7th grade? Are you basically stuck at your inbound at that point? Presumably you have a snowball's chance in hell at Latin, but what about ITS? Sojourner? Eliot-Hine? Stuart-Hobson? John Francis? Do they even take kids in 7th grade?

Latin, DCI: Haha
ITS: About a 1 in 3 chance
Sojourner: A bit of a wildcard. Most years, they've cleared their waitlist for 7th but a couple years ago there were almost 50 kids sitting on it who didn't get a spot
SH: 50/50
EH: That's probably your best bet. Looks like they take about everybody for 7th
John Francis: Also varies a lot by year, but looks like about 1 in 3 overall

So, you might have some options if you needed to call an audible, and you'd likely have Eliot-Hine as a fallback. Not too bad, as risks go. And you could always rent a place in bounds for Deal or Hardy for two years.

If I were a parent of a 3rd grader I'd probably do it IF I asked around and could fine at least a handful of other smart kids my kid liked who were going. I mean, people are always wanting to make a difference. A parent of a smart 3rd grader at one of those schools REALLY has the opportunity to make a difference. Could change the fate of that school for decades. That's appealing.

I’m in a different feeder pattern but have friends at Seaton and Cleveland who are counting hard on this school succeeding.

Middle class Garrison parents lobbied the hardest for it as far as I can tell so it arguably would be pretty hypocritical of them to not to send their kids. Unless I’m wrong and they weren’t the driving force behind this?

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think there is exactly one thing that will make or break Euclid:

Do the high achieving, high test scores kids from Garrison, Seaton, and Marie Reed (I don't think there are more than a couple of these kids by the later grades at Cleveland, Tubman and Cooke) stay the very first year? I believe that's current 3rd graders.

Basically, if you've got a third grade kid getting 3s or 4s on PARC at one of those school, it's up to you.

Not exaggerating: this could come down to 20 kids. If they go that first year, you'll have a cohort of kids doing on/above grade level work and it'll snowball. More and more kids will go every year, and you'll end up with test scores similar to Seaton (about a third at or above grade level) and decent neighborhood buy in indefinitely.

If that number is less than 10 kids, the school will never recover, it'll look like Cardozo did or if it does, it'll be 10+ years from now.

I think this is really true.

I think is some nervousness among that grade (current 3rd graders) about being guinea pigs. Many will peel off -- some of them are younger siblings, so they will likely follow their older siblings to Francis; others will take Latin or BASIS if they get in. It will be fascinating to see what happens.

Here's a question for the lottery nerds: if a family does take a risk on Euclid and it doesn't work out, what are your lottery options for 7th grade? Are you basically stuck at your inbound at that point? Presumably you have a snowball's chance in hell at Latin, but what about ITS? Sojourner? Eliot-Hine? Stuart-Hobson? John Francis? Do they even take kids in 7th grade?

Anonymous wrote:I think there is exactly one thing that will make or break Euclid:

Do the high achieving, high test scores kids from Garrison, Seaton, and Marie Reed (I don't think there are more than a couple of these kids by the later grades at Cleveland, Tubman and Cooke) stay the very first year? I believe that's current 3rd graders.

Basically, if you've got a third grade kid getting 3s or 4s on PARC at one of those school, it's up to you.

Not exaggerating: this could come down to 20 kids. If they go that first year, you'll have a cohort of kids doing on/above grade level work and it'll snowball. More and more kids will go every year, and you'll end up with test scores similar to Seaton (about a third at or above grade level) and decent neighborhood buy in indefinitely.

If that number is less than 10 kids, the school will never recover, it'll look like Cardozo did or if it does, it'll be 10+ years from now.

I think this is really true.

I think is some nervousness among that grade (current 3rd graders) about being guinea pigs. Many will peel off -- some of them are younger siblings, so they will likely follow their older siblings to Francis; others will take Latin or BASIS if they get in. It will be fascinating to see what happens.

Standalone middle schools tend to have more sports and activities than education campuses, like John Francis. It is in a portion of the city that has limited choices for middle school. It will be a reasonably popular choice with families that live in central city; not everyone there wants to commute wotp or to attend basis. This board will have lots of posters that complain its not good enough like they do for pretty much every dcps middle school that is not deal or hardy.

I think there is exactly one thing that will make or break Euclid:

Do the high achieving, high test scores kids from Garrison, Seaton, and Marie Reed (I don't think there are more than a couple of these kids by the later grades at Cleveland, Tubman and Cooke) stay the very first year? I believe that's current 3rd graders.

Basically, if you've got a third grade kid getting 3s or 4s on PARC at one of those school, it's up to you.

Not exaggerating: this could come down to 20 kids. If they go that first year, you'll have a cohort of kids doing on/above grade level work and it'll snowball. More and more kids will go every year, and you'll end up with test scores similar to Seaton (about a third at or above grade level) and decent neighborhood buy in indefinitely.

If that number is less than 10 kids, the school will never recover, it'll look like Cardozo did or if it does, it'll be 10+ years from now.

People will choose it over Brookland middle. Bloomingdale and Eckington are not far from there and this is a topic of interest for sure.

Anonymous wrote:It looks like DCPS is rolling the dice again on a middle school. Are there reasons to think it will succeed or not?

I for one am unfortunately a skeptic. I expect it will have demographics like Cardozo, not Ross, and as a result will do no better than Cardozo at attracting DCUM families. Demographics seem to always trump everything here.

What have you heard?

My demographic prediction -- Euclid will be between 0 and 15 percent upper middle class.

Ross is like 95% UMC, while the other Francis feeders are anywhere between 10 and 30 percent UMC, so that explains the mix there.

None of the the Euclid feeders exceed 30 percent UMC (maybe Garrison will just slightly?), and some portion of those kids will peel off to Latin, BASIS, other DCPS schools and privates.

So, will Euclid have critical mass for challenging classes?

I think the parents on the supporting PTOs are doing a terrific job, and I am optimistic that it can turn out like Wells middle school. There is a lot of room between Cardozo and Ross demographically, for Pete's dake. People cannot count on getting into Latin, BASIS, ITDS, SH, Francis, DCI, or various other middles. So there's a strong desire to make this work. I am a realistic optimist!

It looks like DCPS is rolling the dice again on a middle school. Are there reasons to think it will succeed or not?

I for one am unfortunately a skeptic. I expect it will have demographics like Cardozo, not Ross, and as a result will do no better than Cardozo at attracting DCUM families. Demographics seem to always trump everything here.

What have you heard?