Agree with the PP who noted that the school matters a lot.
If we are talking VA publics, even 6A Patriot or Concorde district, a good athlete can "make it" even if they don't start until 8th or even 9th grade. If your kid wants to be an attacker or attacking midfielder, earlier development of stick skills will be key.
If you want your kid to go to a private like Landon, Prep, or SJC and be successful, early elementary, plus top club, plus work on the side, and full-year lacrosse are all table stakes to be successful. Oh and they have to be a great athlete too.