Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I moved 1/4 of my portfolio both Ira and taxable into gold ETFs and mutual funds last month. There will be a crash soon. Better to be prepared to sell the gold and buy stocks when they’re cheaper. The market always goes back up. But yea, this crash is coming. Think about it. Why are we cutting rates? How is employment? Inflation? The dollar? Cost of goods? THINK. Don’t listen to the calmness of the crowd here.

Rates are being cut because the economy is slowing. The cuts likely will stimulate growth and cut corporate expenses in a very meaningful way which will increase corporate profits which will fuel the stock market, spur investment which will create jobs and cause the economy to grow.

It may not work but it likely will. Gold is very overpriced. If you were worried I would move to cash.

A crash is not likely. A correction is overdue but likely will not come in the next six months.

I disagree. I see global instability. I see layoffs happening and dollar devaluation. I also see funny numbers that are constantly being revised down. You can’t just throw tariffs around like Calvin Coolidge and expecting all to be hunky dory. History is not your friend. Stuff just coats more these days. I hope you’re right that rate cuts will do what you say, but they won’t. They’ll only devalue the dollar and further lead a flight into safety assets like gold, consumer staples and real estate. Bitcoin maybe, but even then it’s still heavily correlated with the stock market and is considered by most still a highly speculative investment. If a crash happens my guess is Bitcoin and ETH go with it mostly. That’s not to say Bitcoin won’t be worth $1m in like 15 years.

Anyway, I don’t share your rosy outlook. We have tried to bring manufacturing by throwing tariffs all around? All we’re doing is creating alternate trade routes. AI is also taking jobs. We are going to have a recession. How bad is the question.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I moved 1/4 of my portfolio both Ira and taxable into gold ETFs and mutual funds last month. There will be a crash soon. Better to be prepared to sell the gold and buy stocks when they’re cheaper. The market always goes back up. But yea, this crash is coming. Think about it. Why are we cutting rates? How is employment? Inflation? The dollar? Cost of goods? THINK. Don’t listen to the calmness of the crowd here.

We did something similar, and I am framing it as diversifying our portfolio. We were almost 100% in US index stocks. So back in February we moved ~25% into gold, international index ETFs, a small amount of crypto, some cash so we can buy if there is a dip. As for the other 75%, like you said the market always goes back up. If it doesn't, we probably have bigger problems on our hands.

International is great but not as a hedge to the US. Most international funds and even index and etfs have large part of US stocks. Also there is no scenario where US stocks drop and international do not.

Anonymous wrote:I moved 1/4 of my portfolio both Ira and taxable into gold ETFs and mutual funds last month. There will be a crash soon. Better to be prepared to sell the gold and buy stocks when they’re cheaper. The market always goes back up. But yea, this crash is coming. Think about it. Why are we cutting rates? How is employment? Inflation? The dollar? Cost of goods? THINK. Don’t listen to the calmness of the crowd here.

We did something similar, and I am framing it as diversifying our portfolio. We were almost 100% in US index stocks. So back in February we moved ~25% into gold, international index ETFs, a small amount of crypto, some cash so we can buy if there is a dip. As for the other 75%, like you said the market always goes back up. If it doesn't, we probably have bigger problems on our hands.

The market will keep going up for a few years until 1) the corporate consolidation reaches a tipping point 2) people get too poor to afford the goods the corporations are producing. Keep your money there until you see breadlines forming.

Anonymous wrote:I moved 1/4 of my portfolio both Ira and taxable into gold ETFs and mutual funds last month. There will be a crash soon. Better to be prepared to sell the gold and buy stocks when they’re cheaper. The market always goes back up. But yea, this crash is coming. Think about it. Why are we cutting rates? How is employment? Inflation? The dollar? Cost of goods? THINK. Don’t listen to the calmness of the crowd here.

Rates are being cut because the economy is slowing. The cuts likely will stimulate growth and cut corporate expenses in a very meaningful way which will increase corporate profits which will fuel the stock market, spur investment which will create jobs and cause the economy to grow.

It may not work but it likely will. Gold is very overpriced. If you were worried I would move to cash.

A crash is not likely. A correction is overdue but likely will not come in the next six months.

I moved 1/4 of my portfolio both Ira and taxable into gold ETFs and mutual funds last month. There will be a crash soon. Better to be prepared to sell the gold and buy stocks when they’re cheaper. The market always goes back up. But yea, this crash is coming. Think about it. Why are we cutting rates? How is employment? Inflation? The dollar? Cost of goods? THINK. Don’t listen to the calmness of the crowd here.

I mean it's life - no guarantees and sticks is always a risk. You are just overthinking because you're wrapped up in retirement desires but even if you're not the world keeps revolving and risk us every present. There's nothing you can do so either you keep the investment or you get out. You should consider talking to your FA about managing your risk but beyond that nobody has the answers and we're all in the same boat! You're not special.

If you wanted to be conservative, you could move, say, 5% of your stock allocation out of stocks every year for the next ten years.

Timing the market almost never works. I thought that the market was over-valued a decade ago, but, thankfully, did nothing. I'm still 100% in stocks (at age 49).

We are your age and 100% in tech stocks. Apple, Google, Amazon, Nvidia, Netflix, etc. I am not worried. Wall Street doesn't care about the same things the average person cares about, like the price of bread. It operates on a different set of criteria, and is sensitive to industry-specific tensions as well as Fed interest rates and credit-worthiness of certain organizations.

Things that might impact the stock market: any profound change in global trade. So China invading Taiwan, Russia fighting against NATO, Trump losing it completely and enforcing high tariffs on major trading partners. China teaming up with others to shut the US out of its manufacturing. The Middle East descending into oil-strangling conflict. There are many possible geopolitical triggers right now, many of the US's own making, that can have a domino effect and pressure the market.

But you can't control any of these things, OP. If there's a third world war starting in Europe, or China decides it doesn't need to play nice with the US anymore, or there's no more fuel for all the container ships that make the world go round, we are all going to suffer in ways that go beyond our trading accounts.

I would advise you to avoid operating on a hair-trigger. Keep calm and carry on.

You have to trust the system at some point. Keep playing the game. If the game board gets flipped over there is little you can do. I don't think anyone can fully prepare for that. You could lose your money, but do you have some good friends and an intact family? Do you know how to cook and tend to a garden? Are you keeping yourself in good health? Those are important investments.

Oh everything is fine. Staying the course. We need a correction though to let the steam out.

Not at all. Money talks. BS walks.

Because they say "oh everything is fine," and I am curious to see what other normal people are thinking and doing!

If you're already paying for a financial advisor, why not go ask them? They have all your details in front of them.

I'm 55 and have just reached the point where, in theory, I have enough money for a very comfortable retirement at 65, and even possibly an earlier retirement. About a quarter of my assets are real estate (my primary home and two vacation propertiesthat I rent out part time), and of the rest, half is in tax-deferred retirement accounts invested in index funds and half is in taxable brokerage accounts managed by a financial advisor (and pretty heavy on tech stocks).

I would feel really happy to have saved "enough" to feel really relaxed about retirement – except that with the political turmoil of the Trump administration, I am honestly freaking out a little about whether some combination of tariffs/inflation/foreign policy nightmare and domestic political chaos will tank the markets. As in, the value of my portfolio could plummet by half or something.

Is anyone else worried about this kind of thing? If so, what, if anything, are you doing or considering to reduce risk at this point?