Next year meaning class of 26 or 27?

Look at the data for the “cliff.” It’s more like a very slow decline over decades. Not a big drop.

More international students applying again won't affect it too much.

For top schools you might see a 1 or 2% increase. At lower levels won’t see much of a change either as schools close and kids transfer across tiers to schools that remain open.

Shrinking applicant pool going into fewer overall slots overtime with some class size growth at the top and among surviving institutions.

No, the most important factor is the increasing variance in student achievement, which is what makes top university admissions more competitive each year regardless of demographic factors.

Anonymous wrote:For the top 20 keep "easier" in perspective, a 20% increase in class size means going from a 4% admit rate to a 5% admit rate. It is a move in the right direction but on an individual level the impact is minimal.

This.

Not this year. Not a very perceptible difference in number of students applying to college. Birth rate isn’t that difference with the 2007/2008 birth cohort of class of 2026.

Each passing year it will get a bit easier. Today’s high school freshmen will have a much easier time.

For the top 20 keep "easier" in perspective, a 20% increase in class size means going from a 4% admit rate to a 5% admit rate. It is a move in the right direction but on an individual level the impact is minimal.

Anonymous wrote:lol This again? Saying it a thousand times doesn't make it more true. Yes, in general it will be easier next year, particularly if you are not shooting for T20 schools. But it remains difficult for those few schools.

Some T20 will be easier like U Chicago

Anonymous wrote:lol This again? Saying it a thousand times doesn't make it more true. Yes, in general it will be easier next year, particularly if you are not shooting for T20 schools. But it remains difficult for those few schools.

OP didn't say it will be easy. They said it'll be easier, which is probably objectively true

Anonymous wrote:lol This again? Saying it a thousand times doesn't make it more true. Yes, in general it will be easier next year, particularly if you are not shooting for T20 schools. But it remains difficult for those few schools.

So the OP still stands and it applies to the vast majority of kids, like mine.

lol This again? Saying it a thousand times doesn't make it more true. Yes, in general it will be easier next year, particularly if you are not shooting for T20 schools. But it remains difficult for those few schools.

Good my ds needs all the help he can get.

+ uncertainties surrounding student visa for internationals + financial crisis at some institutions

Demographic cliff + increase in freshman class size + over-correction from this year's WL disaster