How do you know the shortage isn’t due to families that moved away because they lost their job with the government. The families could have been transferred out as well.

Anonymous wrote:FCPS will likely be 3,000-4,000 students short this year.

Says who?

FCPS will likely be 3,000-4,000 students short this year.

Anonymous wrote:School staffing numbers are tied to enrollment so I'm also wondering if some schools will drop below thresholds at the Sept 30 "census" and have to destaff teachers and possibly combine some classes.

Usually they are pretty cautious. It does happen--I taught in a school where we had to split up a class in late October--not fun.

However, people do enroll ahead of time. I don't know--maybe some of the heavy ESL high schools might lose a teacher or two, but I doubt it.

School staffing numbers are tied to enrollment so I'm also wondering if some schools will drop below thresholds at the Sept 30 "census" and have to destaff teachers and possibly combine some classes.

I’ve heard anecdotally that the number of “newcomers” (students who have just arrived from another country and do not speak proficient English) is down pretty substantially, at least at the handful of high schools.

Interesting. Any teachers or counselors with a perspective on this?

I suspect that there will be fewer new enrollees. In other words, I think enrollment will be lower, but not dramatically lower.

I'm unsure how ICE arrests will impact student enrollment numbers across the U.S. One thing to consider is that some families have worked out plans for neighbors or relatives who are citizens to care for their children who are also citizens. It means that much to some families that they are willing to be apart. Those kids will still be in school. That says a lot, at least to me, about just how desperate people are to be here.

Anonymous wrote:Is there anyplace to see how FCPS enrolment has been affected by increased ICE detentions and arrests? Is anyone looking at that, and projections, when considering boundary and program changes, or is the number too small to matter? I hope student safety and education will remain paramount because it's not kids' fault what their parents choose to do, just wondering if we're seeing an impact.

My belief is the total ICE detention numbers will have a relatively small impact.

However, the “ripple effect” form those detentions could be substantial, as the wider community of people living illegally in the U.S. choose to return to their home countries, taking their children with them.

Alternatively, many could decide to relocate to other parts of the U.S., such as California, which might be viewed as providing more protection from arrest.

But I don’t have numbers specific to FFX.

Look at school webpages in early mid October and you should be able to see membership numbers for September 2025. You can compare these to last year’s numbers. Of course, any difference won’t just be ICE, but you might be able to indirectly see what is happening at the school level.

Anonymous wrote:Heard on radio this AM that detention center in Chantilly is overcrowded, but no idea if those people have kids or if others are worried so not sending kids to school.

That's not good, they should release those people immediately.

I don’t think we’ll know numbers until the end of the school year when FCPS updates the school profile pages. But maybe some teachers at schools with high immigrant populations can weigh in …

Heard on radio this AM that detention center in Chantilly is overcrowded, but no idea if those people have kids or if others are worried so not sending kids to school.

Is there anyplace to see how FCPS enrolment has been affected by increased ICE detentions and arrests? Is anyone looking at that, and projections, when considering boundary and program changes, or is the number too small to matter? I hope student safety and education will remain paramount because it's not kids' fault what their parents choose to do, just wondering if we're seeing an impact.