Anonymous
Post 09/07/2025 08:44     Subject: When are you moving your tsp from C to G now to lock on value before the coming crash?
Anonymous wrote:Why not put it in the I fund instead of G? International markets are going to keep developing new trade deals and supply chains. Trump has previously threatened to restrict G fund gains as a means of controlling government spending. Relying on norms or the fed gov honoring commitments seems foolish.


I’m mostly in I now. I’ll let it ride for a little longer while rate cuts and QE start to juice the market. Then duck out when things seem on a downward trend into G. Then when market fear has finally set in that jobs numbers suck, inflation is bad, tariffs have wrecked our trade and consumers can’t buy sht or do anything and finallllly the stock market cools, I will swoop back in and buy VTIAX and maybe some kind of international momentum mutual fund if one exists when price levels are down.

Both domestic and international equity values are going to fall when the market falls because they are not really decoupled. However, I think international stocks have better odds in the future because of how badly we have fked with our trade. It’s fked and anyone who knows anything can see what’s going on.
Anonymous
Post 09/06/2025 19:18     Subject: When are you moving your tsp from C to G now to lock on value before the coming crash?
When am I doing it now?
Anonymous
Post 09/06/2025 15:00     Subject: When are you moving your tsp from C to G now to lock on value before the coming crash?
Why not put it in the I fund instead of G? International markets are going to keep developing new trade deals and supply chains. Trump has previously threatened to restrict G fund gains as a means of controlling government spending. Relying on norms or the fed gov honoring commitments seems foolish.
Anonymous
Post 09/06/2025 11:23     Subject: When are you moving your tsp from C to G now to lock on value before the coming crash?
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:I think stocks in my tsp c fund will rally for the next few months but the entire market will crash in early or mid 2026 or soon. I am going to move c into G fund so it will be safer in a recession. and m it locks in the gains safely I made in C. After the stock market crashes in early 2026 I l’k then move back to I fund and c and buy stocks cheaply.. when are you moving yours?


LOL. Have date and time for that?


I do. In fact, I’m basically the Michael Burry of this post. Here’s how it all plays out generally. Tariffs are not helping. They are causing layoff and price hikes. Wages aren’t keeping up. Bad employment data keep coming in. We see rate cuts to spur growth. That helps stocks in the short term. That also further causes inflation. Gold raises more. The market is in a frenzy for a while as QE is employed to prop up the market. It’s a sugar high. Foreign countries stop buying more of our debt. The whole time because of a “never back down or admit wrong doing mentality” learned from Roy Cohn there is more antagonistic erratic on and off bipolar trade policy and our countries continue to forge new trade partnerships. It’s a mess. The finally in a few years our overheated economy craps out for like however many years. Stocks drop in value. You can’t or don’t want to see it because any doubt can be waived off as “tds”.


I don't disagree with any of your predictions.

But that's a multi-year timeframe. The amount of interest rate cuts coming in 2026 is substantial and we will approach ZIRP levels. We have seen what happens when money is that cheap. It all gets plowed into real estate and stock market speculation. Financialization replaces the rral economy. Prices will rise, people will lose jobs, and political risk will rise. But so will the stock market because which will be pumped up by a politically captured Fed with sugar highs of ever diminishing returns until suddenly it all ends.

If I had to guess, then I would guess that would happen, assuming WW3 doesn't break out, closer to 2028-2029.


Good insight.
Anonymous
Post 09/06/2025 09:34     Subject: When are you moving your tsp from C to G now to lock on value before the coming crash?
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:I think stocks in my tsp c fund will rally for the next few months but the entire market will crash in early or mid 2026 or soon. I am going to move c into G fund so it will be safer in a recession. and m it locks in the gains safely I made in C. After the stock market crashes in early 2026 I l’k then move back to I fund and c and buy stocks cheaply.. when are you moving yours?


LOL. Have date and time for that?


I do. In fact, I’m basically the Michael Burry of this post. Here’s how it all plays out generally. Tariffs are not helping. They are causing layoff and price hikes. Wages aren’t keeping up. Bad employment data keep coming in. We see rate cuts to spur growth. That helps stocks in the short term. That also further causes inflation. Gold raises more. The market is in a frenzy for a while as QE is employed to prop up the market. It’s a sugar high. Foreign countries stop buying more of our debt. The whole time because of a “never back down or admit wrong doing mentality” learned from Roy Cohn there is more antagonistic erratic on and off bipolar trade policy and our countries continue to forge new trade partnerships. It’s a mess. The finally in a few years our overheated economy craps out for like however many years. Stocks drop in value. You can’t or don’t want to see it because any doubt can be waived off as “tds”.


I don't disagree with any of your predictions.

But that's a multi-year timeframe. The amount of interest rate cuts coming in 2026 is substantial and we will approach ZIRP levels. We have seen what happens when money is that cheap. It all gets plowed into real estate and stock market speculation. Financialization replaces the rral economy. Prices will rise, people will lose jobs, and political risk will rise. But so will the stock market because which will be pumped up by a politically captured Fed with sugar highs of ever diminishing returns until suddenly it all ends.

If I had to guess, then I would guess that would happen, assuming WW3 doesn't break out, closer to 2028-2029.
Anonymous
Post 09/06/2025 08:46     Subject: When are you moving your tsp from C to G now to lock on value before the coming crash?
Sorry I meant “other countries”
Anonymous
Post 09/06/2025 08:44     Subject: When are you moving your tsp from C to G now to lock on value before the coming crash?
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:I think stocks in my tsp c fund will rally for the next few months but the entire market will crash in early or mid 2026 or soon. I am going to move c into G fund so it will be safer in a recession. and m it locks in the gains safely I made in C. After the stock market crashes in early 2026 I l’k then move back to I fund and c and buy stocks cheaply.. when are you moving yours?


LOL. Have date and time for that?


I do. In fact, I’m basically the Michael Burry of this post. Here’s how it all plays out generally. Tariffs are not helping. They are causing layoff and price hikes. Wages aren’t keeping up. Bad employment data keep coming in. We see rate cuts to spur growth. That helps stocks in the short term. That also further causes inflation. Gold raises more. The market is in a frenzy for a while as QE is employed to prop up the market. It’s a sugar high. Foreign countries stop buying more of our debt. The whole time because of a “never back down or admit wrong doing mentality” learned from Roy Cohn there is more antagonistic erratic on and off bipolar trade policy and our countries continue to forge new trade partnerships. It’s a mess. The finally in a few years our overheated economy craps out for like however many years. Stocks drop in value. You can’t or don’t want to see it because any doubt can be waived off as “tds”.
Anonymous
Post 09/06/2025 08:30     Subject: When are you moving your tsp from C to G now to lock on value before the coming crash?
Anonymous wrote:I think stocks in my tsp c fund will rally for the next few months but the entire market will crash in early or mid 2026 or soon. I am going to move c into G fund so it will be safer in a recession. and m it locks in the gains safely I made in C. After the stock market crashes in early 2026 I l’k then move back to I fund and c and buy stocks cheaply.. when are you moving yours?


LOL. Have date and time for that?
Anonymous
Post 09/06/2025 08:29     Subject: Re:When are you moving your tsp from C to G now to lock on value before the coming crash?
I got very lucky pulling money out of my 401k late last year and putting it back in during trump’s tariff fiasco in April. It was dumb luck and I’m not sure I’ll do this kind of thing again.
Anonymous
Post 09/05/2025 22:21     Subject: When are you moving your tsp from C to G now to lock on value before the coming crash?
Anonymous wrote:Nah, I’m definitely moving it. I’ll wait for a few months, because we’re getting a rate cut and most probably quantitie easing, and that will drive stocks higher for a while, but the jobs report was terrible today. Goods are going up. Tariffs are causing issues and layoffs. We have maybe a year until full on stock market crash. Plus we 37 trillion in debt. Yeah we are due for a cyclical recession. This one will be bad though. Could be stagflation. I’ll move it back to I fund after the worst appears over.


Bad jobs report increases odds of more rate cuts, which adds to stock market rally.

The time to exit the market was yesterday at another all time high.

At the next rate cut in Sept fed meeting, it will hit a new ATH for 5 minutes, then lose 2% in the next 90 minutes.



Anonymous
Post 09/05/2025 22:06     Subject: Re:When are you moving your tsp from C to G now to lock on value before the coming crash?
The range of answers that you will get here tells you everything you need to know about market timing.

I love when people say things like - “I’m going to ride this up for the next few months and then sell it all before the crash.” Some kind of genius!
Anonymous
Post 09/05/2025 21:53     Subject: When are you moving your tsp from C to G now to lock on value before the coming crash?
Nah, I’m definitely moving it. I’ll wait for a few months, because we’re getting a rate cut and most probably quantitie easing, and that will drive stocks higher for a while, but the jobs report was terrible today. Goods are going up. Tariffs are causing issues and layoffs. We have maybe a year until full on stock market crash. Plus we 37 trillion in debt. Yeah we are due for a cyclical recession. This one will be bad though. Could be stagflation. I’ll move it back to I fund after the worst appears over.
Anonymous
Post 09/05/2025 21:48     Subject: When are you moving your tsp from C to G now to lock on value before the coming crash?
Don’t play your retirement funds like Vegas money!
Anonymous
Post 09/05/2025 21:41     Subject: When are you moving your tsp from C to G now to lock on value before the coming crash?
Never. Market doesn't go down
Anonymous
Post 09/05/2025 21:40     Subject: When are you moving your tsp from C to G now to lock on value before the coming crash?
I think stocks in my tsp c fund will rally for the next few months but the entire market will crash in early or mid 2026 or soon. I am going to move c into G fund so it will be safer in a recession. and m it locks in the gains safely I made in C. After the stock market crashes in early 2026 I l’k then move back to I fund and c and buy stocks cheaply.. when are you moving yours?