It depends on where your kid is in the top 30% and what that translates in terms of actual GPA. If they're top10% academically, then yes--you can probably count on a top15 school. Beyond that if he has only grades (no legacy or other hook) then a top15 gets iffy fast... he's probably looking at top35.

You should assume that if a college has a high rejection rate, that applies to you.

We’re renew at a feeder private that sends 30-35% to top 15 schools each year. Does this mean if a student is top 30%, they have a shot at those schools? Or should we assume most are legacy or donor kids? Would an unconnected full pay kid who will ED has a chance at those top 15 schools?