This fafsa modelling for need based schools works best for say ivies or similar that give no merit. So if your returns vary year to year your need based grant varies relative to your SAI.

Need based modelling is harder to predict imo, vs merit which so long as student hits numbers the merit is there as originally offered (e.g. 15k/year merit = 60k total over 4 years) Easier to model. Some schools like Tulane will use both merit and need to lure you in.

Correct, your fafsa modeling is going to be based on tax data from 2 years previous your student start date. So student starting 2025 used 2023 tax data, 2026 uses 2024, 2027 uses 2025 etc.

At schools that give substantial need-based aid this is going to be a CSS question, and it’s going to depend on your salary, your assets, and how each individual school treats assets (it varies). Also the schools are going to want to be updated when your husband takes a position somewhere. Worst-case scenario, and definitely possible, is that this has dropped you to the bottom of the “doughnut hole” where you will get little to no financial aid but also will not be able to actually afford an expensive college. In your position, I would ask your husband to put some time into running net price calculators, and once you have a grasp of the landscape present the situation to your kid. There are a lot of good schools at a lot of different price points, so you don’t want your kid going along assuming he can afford a school that is beyond your reach, and being disappointed at the end, when instead he could be perfectly happy going somewhere affordable.

I have a 10th grader - will graduate in spring of 2027. This means we will fill out the FAFSA in the fall of 2026 and will be based on our 2025 income taxes - is that right?

DH lost his job early this year as a result of the DOGE attack on USAID and has not yet found reemployment. He's the higher earner so our income this year will be significantly lower since we are at least 4 months (and counting) on one salary. Could a silver lining in this be that we might be eligible for aid that we otherwise wouldn't have been?