Anonymous
05/01/2025 07:35
Subject: Middle school lottery chances based on SY24-25 outcomes
These analyses are really interesting. Though if I were doing it, I'd run "chances" using the seats offered through June (or August at the latest). Families of rising middle schoolers with any mobility option aren't going to wait around hoping their number comes up at Basis in September or whatever. It's too risky.
Anonymous
04/30/2025 23:07
Subject: Middle school lottery chances based on SY24-25 outcomes
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:I filtered this list down to schools with 20 or more offers (matches+offers by October) and less than 100% offered by October.
Percent offered = (matches+offers by October)/(matches+waitlist on results day)
For 5th grade:
Inspired Teaching - 78% offered
BASIS - 64% offered
Latin Cooper - 27% offered
Latin 2nd St - 22% offered
For 6th grade:
Wells - 98% offered
DC Prep Edgewood - 98% offered
Capitol Hill Montessori - 96% offered
Friendship Blow-Pierce - 96% offered
EL Haynes - 94% offered
Sojourner Truth - 92% offered
Jefferson - 89% offered
Eliot-Hine - 82% offered
KIPP Key - 55% offered
DCI Chinese - 51% offered
Capital City - 42% offered
Stuart-Hobson - 40% offered
Inspired Teaching - 37% offered
John-Francis - 27% offered
Hardy - 26% offered
DCI French - 20% offered
What about DCI spanish? Definately lower then French. Maybe single percentages?
DCI Spanish barely got all the feeder kids in this year
All the feeder kids got in this year.
They said that they ran the numbers and all feeder kids will have spots at DCI for the next few years even with feeder school expansions. Maybe not all the feeder spanish kids will get the spanish track maybe in the future and might be in other language track which further decreases those numbers for non-feeders.
Thus DCI is the most competitive seat for non-feeders kids EOTP.
I am at a DCI feeder with a rising 5th grader and the message is that there could not be enough seats. This cohort of rising 5th graders is significantly larger than last year across all schools.
I’m the PP above. I was at the open house recently and above was what the principal said. So this was directly from DCI. Maybe not enough spanish seats for all spanish feeder kids and some might have to do other language tracks.
But priority is all feeder kids for all available seats.
Anonymous
04/30/2025 22:54
Subject: Middle school lottery chances based on SY24-25 outcomes
Anonymous wrote:ITDS is still having a lot of Latin Cooper siblings amongst its rising 5th graders. It's an echo of losing so many kids when Cooper first opened. It may be more difficult to get into ITDS as that effect fades over time. Still, I think it's many people's backup to Latin and BASIS so they do churn their list pretty far.
Maybe, but pre-Cooper they went just as deep into the waitlist as they do now.
Anonymous
04/30/2025 22:43
Subject: Middle school lottery chances based on SY24-25 outcomes
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:I filtered this list down to schools with 20 or more offers (matches+offers by October) and less than 100% offered by October.
Percent offered = (matches+offers by October)/(matches+waitlist on results day)
For 5th grade:
Inspired Teaching - 78% offered
BASIS - 64% offered
Latin Cooper - 27% offered
Latin 2nd St - 22% offered
For 6th grade:
Wells - 98% offered
DC Prep Edgewood - 98% offered
Capitol Hill Montessori - 96% offered
Friendship Blow-Pierce - 96% offered
EL Haynes - 94% offered
Sojourner Truth - 92% offered
Jefferson - 89% offered
Eliot-Hine - 82% offered
KIPP Key - 55% offered
DCI Chinese - 51% offered
Capital City - 42% offered
Stuart-Hobson - 40% offered
Inspired Teaching - 37% offered
John-Francis - 27% offered
Hardy - 26% offered
DCI French - 20% offered
What about DCI spanish? Definately lower then French. Maybe single percentages?
I only included schools that made 20 or more total offers as a proxy for schools with a "true" entry year in either 5th or 6th.
In practice, the entry year for DCI Spanish is earlier, through the feeders. Last year 100% of feeder school students were offered a seat at DCI Spanish by October. Meanwhile, the non-feeder DCI Spanish lottery made a total of 3 offers, or 1% offered.
Anonymous
04/30/2025 22:05
Subject: Middle school lottery chances based on SY24-25 outcomes
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:I filtered this list down to schools with 20 or more offers (matches+offers by October) and less than 100% offered by October.
Percent offered = (matches+offers by October)/(matches+waitlist on results day)
For 5th grade:
Inspired Teaching - 78% offered
BASIS - 64% offered
Latin Cooper - 27% offered
Latin 2nd St - 22% offered
For 6th grade:
Wells - 98% offered
DC Prep Edgewood - 98% offered
Capitol Hill Montessori - 96% offered
Friendship Blow-Pierce - 96% offered
EL Haynes - 94% offered
Sojourner Truth - 92% offered
Jefferson - 89% offered
Eliot-Hine - 82% offered
KIPP Key - 55% offered
DCI Chinese - 51% offered
Capital City - 42% offered
Stuart-Hobson - 40% offered
Inspired Teaching - 37% offered
John-Francis - 27% offered
Hardy - 26% offered
DCI French - 20% offered
What about DCI spanish? Definately lower then French. Maybe single percentages?
DCI Spanish barely got all the feeder kids in this year
All the feeder kids got in this year.
They said that they ran the numbers and all feeder kids will have spots at DCI for the next few years even with feeder school expansions. Maybe not all the feeder spanish kids will get the spanish track maybe in the future and might be in other language track which further decreases those numbers for non-feeders.
Thus DCI is the most competitive seat for non-feeders kids EOTP.
I am at a DCI feeder with a rising 5th grader and the message is that there could not be enough seats. This cohort of rising 5th graders is significantly larger than last year across all schools.
Anonymous
04/30/2025 21:44
Subject: Middle school lottery chances based on SY24-25 outcomes
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:I filtered this list down to schools with 20 or more offers (matches+offers by October) and less than 100% offered by October.
Percent offered = (matches+offers by October)/(matches+waitlist on results day)
For 5th grade:
Inspired Teaching - 78% offered
BASIS - 64% offered
Latin Cooper - 27% offered
Latin 2nd St - 22% offered
For 6th grade:
Wells - 98% offered
DC Prep Edgewood - 98% offered
Capitol Hill Montessori - 96% offered
Friendship Blow-Pierce - 96% offered
EL Haynes - 94% offered
Sojourner Truth - 92% offered
Jefferson - 89% offered
Eliot-Hine - 82% offered
KIPP Key - 55% offered
DCI Chinese - 51% offered
Capital City - 42% offered
Stuart-Hobson - 40% offered
Inspired Teaching - 37% offered
John-Francis - 27% offered
Hardy - 26% offered
DCI French - 20% offered
What about DCI spanish? Definately lower then French. Maybe single percentages?
DCI Spanish barely got all the feeder kids in this year
All the feeder kids got in this year.
They said that they ran the numbers and all feeder kids will have spots at DCI for the next few years even with feeder school expansions. Maybe not all the feeder spanish kids will get the spanish track maybe in the future and might be in other language track which further decreases those numbers for non-feeders.
Thus DCI is the most competitive seat for non-feeders kids EOTP.
Congrats. You get a cookie.
Thanks, I’ll take chocolate chip.
The takeaway is that middle school seats are one of the most competitive in the city. Big mistake if you are not taking this into consideration when you are playing the lottery for the elementary years.
Anonymous
04/30/2025 21:39
Subject: Middle school lottery chances based on SY24-25 outcomes
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:I filtered this list down to schools with 20 or more offers (matches+offers by October) and less than 100% offered by October.
Percent offered = (matches+offers by October)/(matches+waitlist on results day)
For 5th grade:
Inspired Teaching - 78% offered
BASIS - 64% offered
Latin Cooper - 27% offered
Latin 2nd St - 22% offered
For 6th grade:
Wells - 98% offered
DC Prep Edgewood - 98% offered
Capitol Hill Montessori - 96% offered
Friendship Blow-Pierce - 96% offered
EL Haynes - 94% offered
Sojourner Truth - 92% offered
Jefferson - 89% offered
Eliot-Hine - 82% offered
KIPP Key - 55% offered
DCI Chinese - 51% offered
Capital City - 42% offered
Stuart-Hobson - 40% offered
Inspired Teaching - 37% offered
John-Francis - 27% offered
Hardy - 26% offered
DCI French - 20% offered
What about DCI spanish? Definately lower then French. Maybe single percentages?
DCI Spanish barely got all the feeder kids in this year
All the feeder kids got in this year.
They said that they ran the numbers and all feeder kids will have spots at DCI for the next few years even with feeder school expansions. Maybe not all the feeder spanish kids will get the spanish track maybe in the future and might be in other language track which further decreases those numbers for non-feeders.
Thus DCI is the most competitive seat for non-feeders kids EOTP.
Congrats. You get a cookie.
Anonymous
04/30/2025 21:35
Subject: Middle school lottery chances based on SY24-25 outcomes
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:I filtered this list down to schools with 20 or more offers (matches+offers by October) and less than 100% offered by October.
Percent offered = (matches+offers by October)/(matches+waitlist on results day)
For 5th grade:
Inspired Teaching - 78% offered
BASIS - 64% offered
Latin Cooper - 27% offered
Latin 2nd St - 22% offered
For 6th grade:
Wells - 98% offered
DC Prep Edgewood - 98% offered
Capitol Hill Montessori - 96% offered
Friendship Blow-Pierce - 96% offered
EL Haynes - 94% offered
Sojourner Truth - 92% offered
Jefferson - 89% offered
Eliot-Hine - 82% offered
KIPP Key - 55% offered
DCI Chinese - 51% offered
Capital City - 42% offered
Stuart-Hobson - 40% offered
Inspired Teaching - 37% offered
John-Francis - 27% offered
Hardy - 26% offered
DCI French - 20% offered
What about DCI spanish? Definately lower then French. Maybe single percentages?
DCI Spanish barely got all the feeder kids in this year
All the feeder kids got in this year.
They said that they ran the numbers and all feeder kids will have spots at DCI for the next few years even with feeder school expansions. Maybe not all the feeder spanish kids will get the spanish track maybe in the future and might be in other language track which further decreases those numbers for non-feeders.
Thus DCI is the most competitive seat for non-feeders kids EOTP.
Anonymous
04/30/2025 21:35
Subject: Middle school lottery chances based on SY24-25 outcomes
ITDS is still having a lot of Latin Cooper siblings amongst its rising 5th graders. It's an echo of losing so many kids when Cooper first opened. It may be more difficult to get into ITDS as that effect fades over time. Still, I think it's many people's backup to Latin and BASIS so they do churn their list pretty far.
Anonymous
04/30/2025 21:30
Subject: Middle school lottery chances based on SY24-25 outcomes
Anonymous wrote:The Basis number is misleading because many parents realize that the rigorous curriculum is not a good fit for their kids and turn down the slot. Don’t apply to Basis without doing your research first.
Many parents already know about the curriculum before even applying to the lottery. It’s no secret and a main talking point during the open house tours.
Anonymous
04/30/2025 21:28
Subject: Middle school lottery chances based on SY24-25 outcomes
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:I filtered this list down to schools with 20 or more offers (matches+offers by October) and less than 100% offered by October.
Percent offered = (matches+offers by October)/(matches+waitlist on results day)
For 5th grade:
Inspired Teaching - 78% offered
BASIS - 64% offered
Latin Cooper - 27% offered
Latin 2nd St - 22% offered
For 6th grade:
Wells - 98% offered
DC Prep Edgewood - 98% offered
Capitol Hill Montessori - 96% offered
Friendship Blow-Pierce - 96% offered
EL Haynes - 94% offered
Sojourner Truth - 92% offered
Jefferson - 89% offered
Eliot-Hine - 82% offered
KIPP Key - 55% offered
DCI Chinese - 51% offered
Capital City - 42% offered
Stuart-Hobson - 40% offered
Inspired Teaching - 37% offered
John-Francis - 27% offered
Hardy - 26% offered
DCI French - 20% offered
What about DCI spanish? Definately lower then French. Maybe single percentages?
DCI Spanish barely got all the feeder kids in this year
Anonymous
04/30/2025 21:20
Subject: Middle school lottery chances based on SY24-25 outcomes
Anonymous wrote:I filtered this list down to schools with 20 or more offers (matches+offers by October) and less than 100% offered by October.
Percent offered = (matches+offers by October)/(matches+waitlist on results day)
For 5th grade:
Inspired Teaching - 78% offered
BASIS - 64% offered
Latin Cooper - 27% offered
Latin 2nd St - 22% offered
For 6th grade:
Wells - 98% offered
DC Prep Edgewood - 98% offered
Capitol Hill Montessori - 96% offered
Friendship Blow-Pierce - 96% offered
EL Haynes - 94% offered
Sojourner Truth - 92% offered
Jefferson - 89% offered
Eliot-Hine - 82% offered
KIPP Key - 55% offered
DCI Chinese - 51% offered
Capital City - 42% offered
Stuart-Hobson - 40% offered
Inspired Teaching - 37% offered
John-Francis - 27% offered
Hardy - 26% offered
DCI French - 20% offered
What about DCI spanish? Definately lower then French. Maybe single percentages?
Anonymous
04/30/2025 18:19
Subject: Middle school lottery chances based on SY24-25 outcomes
Anonymous wrote:The Basis number is misleading because many parents realize that the rigorous curriculum is not a good fit for their kids and turn down the slot. Don’t apply to Basis without doing your research first.
Why is that misleading? They apply then do tours after they get in to see if it is a good fit.
Anonymous
04/30/2025 18:03
Subject: Middle school lottery chances based on SY24-25 outcomes
The Basis number is misleading because many parents realize that the rigorous curriculum is not a good fit for their kids and turn down the slot. Don’t apply to Basis without doing your research first.
Anonymous
04/30/2025 16:34
Subject: Middle school lottery chances based on SY24-25 outcomes
I filtered this list down to schools with 20 or more offers (matches+offers by October) and less than 100% offered by October.
Percent offered = (matches+offers by October)/(matches+waitlist on results day)
For 5th grade:
Inspired Teaching - 78% offered
BASIS - 64% offered
Latin Cooper - 27% offered
Latin 2nd St - 22% offered
For 6th grade:
Wells - 98% offered
DC Prep Edgewood - 98% offered
Capitol Hill Montessori - 96% offered
Friendship Blow-Pierce - 96% offered
EL Haynes - 94% offered
Sojourner Truth - 92% offered
Jefferson - 89% offered
Eliot-Hine - 82% offered
KIPP Key - 55% offered
DCI Chinese - 51% offered
Capital City - 42% offered
Stuart-Hobson - 40% offered
Inspired Teaching - 37% offered
John-Francis - 27% offered
Hardy - 26% offered
DCI French - 20% offered
Percent offered = (matches+offers by October)/(matches+waitlist on results day)
For 5th grade:
Inspired Teaching - 78% offered
BASIS - 64% offered
Latin Cooper - 27% offered
Latin 2nd St - 22% offered
For 6th grade:
Wells - 98% offered
DC Prep Edgewood - 98% offered
Capitol Hill Montessori - 96% offered
Friendship Blow-Pierce - 96% offered
EL Haynes - 94% offered
Sojourner Truth - 92% offered
Jefferson - 89% offered
Eliot-Hine - 82% offered
KIPP Key - 55% offered
DCI Chinese - 51% offered
Capital City - 42% offered
Stuart-Hobson - 40% offered
Inspired Teaching - 37% offered
John-Francis - 27% offered
Hardy - 26% offered
DCI French - 20% offered