Anonymous
Post 04/30/2025 09:16     Subject: Re:Tariff impact on day to day goods?
The economic impact of the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration will soon become apparent to everyday Americans and lead to a recession this summer, according to Apollo Global Management.

Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo, laid out a timeline in a presentation for clients that showed when the impact of tariffs announced by President Donald Trump could hit the U.S. economy. Based on the transport time required for goods from China, U.S. consumers could start to notice trade-related shortages in their local stores next month, according to the presentation.

“The consequence will be empty shelves in US stores in a few weeks and Covid-like shortages for consumers and for firms using Chinese products as intermediate goods,” Slok wrote in a note to clients Friday.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/28/empty-shelves-trucking-layoffs-lead-to-recession-in-apollos-trade-war-timeline.html
Anonymous
Post 04/30/2025 09:15     Subject: Tariff impact on day to day goods?
Anonymous wrote:It's obvious none of the people here work in CPG. Any increases you see before July 1st will not be related to tarrifs. Companies stockpiled inventory in preparation to get through the quarter.


No Trump did this pretty fast and without warnings. The majority of companies were caught.
Anonymous
Post 04/30/2025 09:14     Subject: Re:Tariff impact on day to day goods?
Americans need to buy less crap from China.
Anonymous
Post 04/30/2025 09:13     Subject: Re:Tariff impact on day to day goods?
the Port of Los Angeles, which, along with the Port of Long Beach, receives roughly 40% of all imports from Asia, shipments last week were down 10% compared with the same period one year earlier. That number is expected to keep falling.

"We are now beginning to see the flow of cargo to the Port of Los Angeles slow," Port of Los Angeles executive director Eugene Seroka said at a Los Angeles Board of Harbor Commissioners meeting on April 24. "It's my prediction that in two weeks time, arrivals will drop by 35%," he added.
S. retailers had rushed to import goods into the country ahead of President Trump's sweeping tariffs going into effect, leading to a spike in imports since last summer. Now, with the 145% tariffs making goods from China roughly two-and-a-half times more expensive than they were last year, "essentially all shipments out of China for major retailers and manufacturers have ceased," Seroka said.

By another estimate, container bookings from China to the U.S. are down by as much as 60%, according to Flexport, a supply chain management company.

The dip comes during what is usually a busy period for imports to the U.S. "We would normally see an increase in bookings across the board, because this is the beginning of the shipping year," said Nathan Strang, director of ocean freight at Flexport. "It's when back-to-school items and Halloween items start to come in."

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/china-exports-to-us-drop-sharply/
Anonymous
Post 04/30/2025 09:08     Subject: Tariff impact on day to day goods?
Anonymous wrote:Explain this to me like I’m 5, in the next two weeks, if I go to Walmart or Safeway, what goods will be missing?

So far the hyped up freak outs are understandable but I’m not seeing the reality of the tariffs.

When will I notice? I don’t eat avocados and I don’t need a new car .


Most of what you want or need will not be available and certainly not at prices you are accustomed to paying.
Anonymous
Post 04/30/2025 09:08     Subject: Tariff impact on day to day goods?
It's obvious none of the people here work in CPG. Any increases you see before July 1st will not be related to tarrifs. Companies stockpiled inventory in preparation to get through the quarter.
Anonymous
Post 04/30/2025 09:07     Subject: Tariff impact on day to day goods?
Anonymous wrote:I hate Trump and am trying not to overreact about how he is tanking our economy, but I see a lot of “threads” about people who think we should start to stockpile supplies. And that in 6 weeks our stores will be empty. Does anyone think that’s true?


Container cargo ports are emptying out and truck traffic is way down. The people who track this say in 2-3 weeks we will see empty shelves and reduced choices. It’s a large system and there is still water in the hose. Once that is through the system there is nothing or very little behind it. This will cause layoff in manufacturing in the US.

Another point nobody is talking about is the US does not have a system for tracking and charging tariffs. Right now it is an honor system with spot checks. Trump has fires most of the people who were responsible for this. The other day the computer system crashed and the US did not collect tariffs that day. There are ways to game the system, lie or pay off people. In other words smuggling. We could see the Trump administration just looked the other way and allows large scale smuggling.
Anonymous
Post 04/30/2025 09:05     Subject: Tariff impact on day to day goods?
Anonymous wrote:Explain this to me like I’m 5, in the next two weeks, if I go to Walmart or Safeway, what goods will be missing?

So far the hyped up freak outs are understandable but I’m not seeing the reality of the tariffs.

When will I notice? I don’t eat avocados and I don’t need a new car .

You probably won't see it in the next two weeks, but definitely in the next month.
Anonymous
Post 04/30/2025 08:48     Subject: Tariff impact on day to day goods?
Explain this to me like I’m 5, in the next two weeks, if I go to Walmart or Safeway, what goods will be missing?

So far the hyped up freak outs are understandable but I’m not seeing the reality of the tariffs.

When will I notice? I don’t eat avocados and I don’t need a new car .
Anonymous
Post 04/30/2025 08:41     Subject: Tariff impact on day to day goods?
Why are businesses so quiet about the effect of tariffs? Are they all afraid of retaliation?

Usually when a trade law is proposed, like minimum wage hikes, businesses blanket TV and YouTube with ads, and put up signs telling customers to call Congress to stop the law.
Anonymous
Post 04/30/2025 08:40     Subject: Tariff impact on day to day goods?
Look at COVID Op. a shock to supply chains means shortages and empty shelves. And diminished supply with stable demand is inflationary. And yeah, container ships from China have stopped arriving. It’s too late to completely avoid this.
Anonymous
Post 04/30/2025 08:37     Subject: Tariff impact on day to day goods?
It’s too late to reel this in. Congress better act now so we can staunch some bleeding.
Anonymous
Post 04/30/2025 08:29     Subject: Tariff impact on day to day goods?
Yes. I'm in Procurement for a major electronics manufacturer and I can tell you that the supply chain is already severely f'd up, Material costs in our sector are unsustainable. Ports like Long Beach and Seattle have laid off dock workers and truckers for lack of cargo. I can't imagine how small businesses are going to survive.
Anonymous
Post 04/30/2025 08:27     Subject: Tariff impact on day to day goods?
Where does Heinz procure their ketchup bottles from?

All of the little plastic lids of every little piece of food we buy are made somewhere, not the US.

Most of our produce comes from central and south America.

Truckers won't deadhead their runs, so if there is nothing coming back, they won't go.


UPS is already seeing enough of a suspension of demand from retailers that they are laying off 20,000 drivers. What does that mean Amazon and Walmart are seeing?
Anonymous
Post 04/30/2025 08:24     Subject: Tariff impact on day to day goods?
I hate Trump and am trying not to overreact about how he is tanking our economy, but I see a lot of “threads” about people who think we should start to stockpile supplies. And that in 6 weeks our stores will be empty. Does anyone think that’s true?