Anonymous wrote:I don’t think the President, even this one, has that much to do with what the economy does.

1M+ Federal employees and all the contractors laid off will have an effect. This was an economy that was doing ok by most macroeconomic measures. Some tightening (cutting some weird provisions in the IRA) and trimming here and there, and he could have declared victory. This is going to be painful -- DC will be a company town that lost its main factory.

Anonymous wrote:I don’t think the President, even this one, has that much to do with what the economy does.

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Platitudes like this based on conventional wisdom are out the window. Chaos and uncertainty— and cutting Medicaid! And deporting immigrants!— will definitely impact people’s ability and desire to spend money in this economy and undermine our productivity.

Anonymous wrote:I don’t think the President, even this one, has that much to do with what the economy does.

The tariffs are a problem because it will ripple through the economy.

I don’t think the President, even this one, has that much to do with what the economy does.

I bought puts that expire at the end of March. Volatility is on the horizon as we go into a government shut down, which will spur the first round of mass layoffs.

It is not likley that the economy will collapse or even slow down in 2025. 2026 is possible. You do realize that almost nothing that Trump has announced will take effect.

Let’s ignore Covid so my golf clubs and branded hotels make continued bank.

Let’s RTO so empty offices earn rent.

Let’s cut workers.

Let’s kick out immigrants and stop immigration.

let’s destabilize all international trade.

Let’s destabilize US Treasury.

So…. six weeks.

Who knows how long .... A study by a Temple University professor shows that Donald Trump’s casinos in Atlantic City lost more jobs and money than competitors’ casinos,
while also going through more bankruptcies than any other major business in America.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:83 days 7 hours 36 minutes 10 seconds.

Ok. We are taking our vacation in May so this could work out.

We’re going on vacation in March…to the place we went just before the pandemic hit the US. We actually haven’t been back since 2019. So yes, I’ll believe the 83 day thesis since there is a historical parallel with my vacation. It all makes sense!

Anonymous wrote:83 days 7 hours 36 minutes 10 seconds.

Ok. We are taking our vacation in May so this could work out.

Egg prices are driven by bird flu. The Federal Government chaos will have most impact on the local economy.

I think what will really drive the economy down is:
1. Chaos over tariffs- given the economic inter linkages this is going to cause a major spike in prices for energy, cars, building materials etc. 2. Budget madness. Huge tax cuts only partially offset by reduced spending is going to spike interest rates unless they force the Fed to mop it all up, in which case we will have inflation and a collapse in the dollar.
3. If he keeps hinting at reneging on some of the national debt. If treasuries are no longer a safe asset the whole economic system collapses.

Anonymous wrote:83 days 7 hours 36 minutes 10 seconds.

We only have that long IF we're lucky. OP, sell everything now and buy meal replacement packages, a water purifier, and guns/ammo to protect your bunker.

All this time, gold and prepper companies were advertising on Fox when their best customers were actually watching MSNBC.

83 days 7 hours 36 minutes 10 seconds.

It’s definitely coming. By the end of the year?

Really, what are the predictions. Egg prices are already insane. Everyone is already cutting back expenses over fear of the future. People are being fired left and right. How long do you give it. Government programs aren't getting funded (farms, schools etc...) causing a ripple down across the country. How long till people not paying attention see it?