Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Ok so it’s a joke

Not entirely. Just not to be trusted when coming from a large high performing public high school and applying to the state flagship. Collegevine takes state but not county or high school into account and the standards are different.

I think it is an interesting ballpark on odds. But if your school sends 1 kid a year to Harvard, it depends on how many from your school apply. You may get 33% odds from Collegevine, but that won't trump.

Anonymous wrote:Ok so it’s a joke

Not entirely. Just not to be trusted when coming from a large high performing public high school and applying to the state flagship. Collegevine takes state but not county or high school into account and the standards are different.

It said that Michigan, UVA and UCLA are all targets for my TO DD, which I did not believe.
So far, deferred at UMich, denied and UVA and we will see about UCLA

Ok so it’s a joke

Anonymous wrote:Collegvine gave MCPS DC a 83% chance of being admitted to UMD. Rejected.

DC was admitted from a W with those same odds.

Collegvine gave MCPS DC a 83% chance of being admitted to UMD. Rejected.

In at all safeties. Deferred two targets, in one. In one reach. Waiting on a handful.

CV had DC at a 40% chance of admission at a hard target, suggesting that test scores be submitted despite being below the 25th percentile, with no merit likely. Said there was a 90% chance at a safety with an estimated $8500 in merit.

DC got into the target TO with $30k/year in merit and was deferred from the safety. A handful of other schools did turn out as predicted. So not totally wrong, but not entirely accurate either.

CV results (note the percentages have changed a lot since the fall - not sure why)

Reach -- In: (26% and 23%). Deferred: 20% (ED1) and 19% (private EA).

Targets -- In (63%, 61%, 57%). Deferred 29%.

Safeties - In everywhere (98%, 96%, 94%, 84%).

A lot of RD to go.

I don't think CV accounts for holistic review as much as they should (major choice especially, ECs etc).

In at all safeties. CV called UGA and Wisconsin safeties.

In at 42, 45, & 72% targets

Deferred at a 35 & 55% targets.

Denied at 45% target.

Waiting for reach.

College Vine predicted DS would be accepted at Northeastern and he was for Boston. CV chancing him between 17-20% for T10.

Doubtful but optimistic!

My daughter has been accepted at all so far (5 schools with probability ranging from 34-69 percent). But no reach decisions yet.

I'm skeptical. Has my kid at 40% for Michigan, which doesn't sound right. Applied RD, so we have to wait and see.

So far yes. Waiting for hard targets and reaches.

Curious if results have been roughly accurate so far, especially after the algorithm changes which increased chancing percentages. For my DC, in at all safeties (>70%) and low targets (~50%). Deferred early reach. Waiting on Hard Targets (which seem like should be reaches).