Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It's not an exact equation or anything but I'd say the price ceiling of the upper-middle class areas is basically always going to be what two pay ceilinged feds with a big down payment from their last house (say, 30%-40%) can comfortably afford.

Not anymore. Dual Feds are being priced out of the close in neighborhoods with good schools where $2m is now the norm.

Agree I live in Lyon Park. There some dual feds living in tear downs who bought 10+ years ago but most of the homes near me are new and large and owners are lobbyists, law firm partners or work in tech.

Idk. But it seems unending. We moved from a condo in Clarendon to a neighborhood in 22207 because we couldn’t afford a sfh in LV. Now we want a little more space and can’t afford to move up to a larger house in our current neighborhood. Depressing.

Anonymous wrote:It's not an exact equation or anything but I'd say the price ceiling of the upper-middle class areas is basically always going to be what two pay ceilinged feds with a big down payment from their last house (say, 30%-40%) can comfortably afford.

Don’t think this is accurate anymore. I’m a fed and know quite a few dual feds and the all live out in places like hoco, md or Fairfax station. We live in North Arlington and in our neighborhood it has gone from people who worked for the state department in the 70s to basically all private sector lawyers. My spouse is a big law partner, my next door neighbor is also a big law partner and a PT, and another big law partner across the street. And our house is modest.

Anonymous wrote:It's not an exact equation or anything but I'd say the price ceiling of the upper-middle class areas is basically always going to be what two pay ceilinged feds with a big down payment from their last house (say, 30%-40%) can comfortably afford.

Not anymore. Dual Feds are being priced out of the close in neighborhoods with good schools where $2m is now the norm.

Anonymous wrote:Bringing it back to Arlington - it's not just N Arlington, either. Our realtor sent us a SFH in S Arlington that's coming soon (pics aren't in listing yet but the agent posted a video online) - house is 1400 sq feet, hasn't been renovated, and is asking $950K. Feels insane to me for S Arlington - worried this is the new normal??

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/209-S-Ivy-St-Arlington-VA-22204/12092834_zpid/

That’s a very nice and wealthy part of south Arlington. I believe it. There can be great views of DC.

I know a few people who have paid $1.5 for tear downs. The ceiling right now does seem to be about $3.5. There are tons of $2.1m houses. When we bought new 15 years ago, we were approved up to $1.8, but that was the top of the market then. Now, to move up to a new house that’s basically the same as what we have now would be $2.8 or so not in county club bills or Lyon village.

Bringing it back to Arlington - it's not just N Arlington, either. Our realtor sent us a SFH in S Arlington that's coming soon (pics aren't in listing yet but the agent posted a video online) - house is 1400 sq feet, hasn't been renovated, and is asking $950K. Feels insane to me for S Arlington - worried this is the new normal??

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/209-S-Ivy-St-Arlington-VA-22204/12092834_zpid/

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Teardowns near downtown Bethesda were a minimum of $1.5 million a few years back, probably $2 million now. As long as the economy is roaring, this will continue. But if the economy heads south, it will stop.

This is inaccurate. Maybe for the more premium ones but we found plenty of lots under 1.5.

Yes, heavily dependent on location and size. Drive through Edgemoor and look at where some huge houses are being built, and look up how much was paid for the lots. Insane.

Loooots of rich people in this area. We live inside the beltway in FFX in a neighborhood with an elementary school rated a 3. The smaller homes in our neighborhood are selling for $1Million (like 1300 sq ft homes) and we are not a tear down neighborhood, we are a build up neighborhood. I have one friend who sold and moved out to the exurbs because they couldn't afford a decent sized SFH here. The new families are changing the neighborhood pretty drastically. I don't know if it's generational or wealth but they stick out like sore thumbs.

Anonymous wrote:Teardowns near downtown Bethesda were a minimum of $1.5 million a few years back, probably $2 million now. As long as the economy is roaring, this will continue. But if the economy heads south, it will stop.

This is inaccurate. Maybe for the more premium ones but we found plenty of lots under 1.5.

Teardowns near downtown Bethesda were a minimum of $1.5 million a few years back, probably $2 million now. As long as the economy is roaring, this will continue. But if the economy heads south, it will stop.

It's not an exact equation or anything but I'd say the price ceiling of the upper-middle class areas is basically always going to be what two pay ceilinged feds with a big down payment from their last house (say, 30%-40%) can comfortably afford.

Honestly $2 million for a tear down isn’t that far off for some nicer Arlington neighborhoods. I saw a $2 million home in our neighborhood bought and torn down, because the lot was beautiful. Typically though tear downs are selling for $1.25-1.5 million in Ashton Heights/Lyon Park so I’m guessing Lyon Village must be $1.5-1.75.

$10 million ceiling. Prices only go up. Buy everything you can now and you'll be rich in no time!

Will things ever flatten out, or will be looking at $2 million tear downs in a decade???