I have long considered myself a DCPS lottery guru, but have some fairly specific questions this year that I'm finding tricky to answer.
Scenario: We are enrolled at a charter school with a rising pre-k 4 and 3rd grader for the next school year (current pre-K 3 and 2nd grader). We are in boundary for a DCPS neighborhood elementary in upper NW that we are considering transferring to, but have not decided on. We love our current school and have been there for 4 years, but we moved and it is now across town, and we are strongly weighing the benefits of being part of the local school community in a new-to-us neighborhood where we plan to raise our kids long term; and also think it is likely we will feed into the neighborhood middle and high school in the future.
We would like the maximum amount of time to make the decision on whether to transfer, and complete as much of this school year as possible before deciding.
The complication is in figuring out when we need to decide by, and if we need to participate in the lottery. The neighborhood school has pre-K 4, but not pre-K 3. Most pre-K 4 spots are filled by siblings, but not 100%. All of the remaining are filled by in-boundary families. The preference groups are 1) in bound w/sib attending, 2) in bound w/ sib offered, 3) in bound w/ equitable access, 4) in bound, 5) sib attending (out of bound), 6) sib offered (out of bound), and 7) proximity.
My question is, should I:
Option 1) lottery our younger sibling for Pre-K 4. In this scenario, we would either 1a) match and then need to enroll by the lottery match enrollment deadline of May 1, or 1b) be waitlisted. In the 1a scenario, we would need to decide on whether to enroll by the May 1 deadline, and would lose our charter spot upon doing so. If we are not ready to decide on May 1, we would lose the DCPS spot. In the 1b scenario we are in preference group #4, in boundary, and not guaranteed to get off the waitlist, but would move from preference group #4 to group #1 if/when older kid is eventually enrolled.
Option 2) wait until after the lottery and decide whether to enroll after the school year ends. In this scenario, we would enroll our rising 3rd grader and then do a post-lottery application for pre-K 4 kid once older sib is enrolled, and younger sib would start out in preference group #1 and (I think) go onto the waitlist but hopefully move off the waitlist quickly, since all other kids in group #1 have already enrolled, and the remainder of the waitlist is group #4 and beyond. So in this scenario, two things could happen: 2a) older kid is enrolled, younger kid then gets admitted from waitlist or 2b) older kid is enrolled, younger kid remains on waitlist because the waitlist has stopped moving... and then we are stuck.
We really don't want to give up our current charter spots earlier than we are ready, because once we do, we can't go back. I lean towards option 2 because it gives us more time, but worry that it is risky. I think the answer is in knowing not how much the waitlist moves (i.e. how many waitlist spots are filled), but rather how long the waitlist moves for (i.e., when are the last waitlist spots filled). I've used all of the publicly available waitlist data and can see that several waitlist spots were offered by June, and several more were offered by September; none were offered between September and October. I *think* this means that the waitlist continues to move over the summer, and we should be safe to pursue option 2 so long as we enroll older kid by July. Would welcome thoughts, reactions, considerations from lottery gurus.