As of November 2023 26.7% of new car sales in California were zero emission cars. The technology is changing so fast that 10 years is equivalent 30 years.

This is shaping up to be like the introduction of cell phones and digital music. Cell phones first came on line in 1983 by 2000 they were affordable for most people.

This market is changing so fast. The Chevy equinox is now cheaper vs the gas version. So the low end of car market (sub $30k) will see a lot of pressure from EVs.

The biggest segment not addressed is the 3 row SUV at comfortable price point vs gas. Hyundai and Kia have that now. The reviews are saying their SUV are the best regardless of gas or EV.

These newer cars are not very radical in design and are marketed to standard SUV market. Honda is having success selling the prologue. It’s not a rocket ship(0-60 in 5.8 vs 3 sec) but a lot of people want something that drives(and looks) like what they are use to driving. It’s a boring car segment but it is a big segment.

Battery price will drop another 30-40% this year and projections are saying it will continue for the next 5 years. The industry is just scaling up to size.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

The Environmental Protection Agency plans to grant the state the right to set stronger climate rules for cars, SUVs and pickup trucks as soon as next week.
The Environmental Protection Agency plans to grant California permission to set stronger climate rules for cars and SUVs — a move that President-elect Donald Trump could attempt to reverse — according to two people briefed on the matter.
Ask your climate questions. With the help of generative Al, we'll try to deliver answers based on our published reporting.

The EPA intends to issue California a waiver as soon as next week to enforce its rule aimed at banning sales of new gasoline-powered cars in the state by 2035, said the two people, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to comment publicly. The Trump administration will probably try to revoke the waiver, although those efforts could run into legal obstacles.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2024/12/13/epa-california-climate-cars-evs/

Looks like 11 other states will be included in this. Will be very good for Musk.

Not really. Tesla was hugely important for creating a market for EV. But there has been a lot of innovation since then and most of the major car companies are heading in that direction regardless. Much of Europe has adopted similar restrictions on the sale of new old-timey combustion engine vehicles. And these days, China is the biggest exporter of EV. Any car company that's all in for combustion engines in 2035 is doomed.

The other electrics are failures. Tesla is the only car that matters. Europe does have good models, but they are much more expensive, around 200k.

Not really. The market for the "small SUV EV" is the hottest EV market right now and Tesla was behind the ball on that (their SUV is not that small and is incredibly stupid looking). Hyundai, Nissan, Kia, Chevy, Volkswagen, and Subaru are all offering more consumer-friendly options in this segment. Tesla will hopefully come out with a non-stupid small SUV to compete -- the more competition the better. But that's the kind of vehicle most consumers want -- a compact SUV that sits up higher than a sedan, has a hatch back, and has good storage and head room.

If I were buying an EV this year I'd be leaning towards the Ioniq 5 from Hyundai, though I want to see what the 2025 Volkswagen id.4 is like. I like Teslas but they don't make sense for a family of 4 with kids who play sports.

If you pay attention to auto press, there is far more to come in this segment and there are lots of competitors in the market. Also, as the EV market grows, it's unrealistic to expect that most EV consumers will choose an EV-only brand like Tesla. Consumers are habitual. In order for EVs to get to 30-40% of the market, you are going to have to capture consumers who are brand-loyal to BMW or Subaru or whatever, so you need those companies to be offering appealing EVs for those customers (I have high hopes for the Subaru Solterra -- Subaru owners are a prime market for EVs because they tend to be liberal and eco-conscious, and if they can solve their manufacturing issues with EVs and produce a decent competitor in this space, I think it will lead to a big swing toward EVs).

Anonymous wrote:It's a decade away. Doing this encourages car makers to invest in EVs, especially at the lower end of the market. So the EPA says "yes in 10 years, if you want to, you could ban gas combustion vehicles" and the auto industry works to prepare for that possibility. But if EVs are still only 50-60% of the market in 10 years, they'll kick the can down the road again. There is zero commitment here.

States aren't going to be able to prevent you from buying gas cars unless the market has made them obsolete. Which could happen -- as EVs increase in share, the infrastructure for them will increase. And if gas prices rise at the same time, market incentives will push more and more people to EVs. The interest is already exploding even though it's still a fraction of the market -- they've moved from 4 to 14% of the market in only a couple years.

One key reason we need to plan well in advance for this shift is that road infrastructure is still heavily funded by taxes on gas purchases. I work in public infrastructure and this is a major topic of conversation, especially in states like California where the percent of EVs on the road has risen faster than in other places. States need to be able to plan for budgeting in the long term and clearing a regulatory hurdle like this can make it easier to build projections. Right now EVs are still subsidized because they are trying to build out the market, but they want to get to the point where rather than subsidizing them, EV owners pay into the system the same way drivers of gas vehicles do.

This.
Leaps into the future are always scary.
I’m old enough to remember when everyone freaked out about car efficiency standards. And it all happened.

And ev’s are awesome! Surprisingly so. Really quick pickup and it’s so convenient not having to deal with going to the gas station or get emissions inspections.

And no. They don’t cost $200k…

It's a decade away. Doing this encourages car makers to invest in EVs, especially at the lower end of the market. So the EPA says "yes in 10 years, if you want to, you could ban gas combustion vehicles" and the auto industry works to prepare for that possibility. But if EVs are still only 50-60% of the market in 10 years, they'll kick the can down the road again. There is zero commitment here.

States aren't going to be able to prevent you from buying gas cars unless the market has made them obsolete. Which could happen -- as EVs increase in share, the infrastructure for them will increase. And if gas prices rise at the same time, market incentives will push more and more people to EVs. The interest is already exploding even though it's still a fraction of the market -- they've moved from 4 to 14% of the market in only a couple years.

One key reason we need to plan well in advance for this shift is that road infrastructure is still heavily funded by taxes on gas purchases. I work in public infrastructure and this is a major topic of conversation, especially in states like California where the percent of EVs on the road has risen faster than in other places. States need to be able to plan for budgeting in the long term and clearing a regulatory hurdle like this can make it easier to build projections. Right now EVs are still subsidized because they are trying to build out the market, but they want to get to the point where rather than subsidizing them, EV owners pay into the system the same way drivers of gas vehicles do.

I’d think this isn’t a bad idea IF California had good public transit options. But they don’t have anything, not even bad options.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

The Environmental Protection Agency plans to grant the state the right to set stronger climate rules for cars, SUVs and pickup trucks as soon as next week.
The Environmental Protection Agency plans to grant California permission to set stronger climate rules for cars and SUVs — a move that President-elect Donald Trump could attempt to reverse — according to two people briefed on the matter.
Ask your climate questions. With the help of generative Al, we'll try to deliver answers based on our published reporting.

The EPA intends to issue California a waiver as soon as next week to enforce its rule aimed at banning sales of new gasoline-powered cars in the state by 2035, said the two people, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to comment publicly. The Trump administration will probably try to revoke the waiver, although those efforts could run into legal obstacles.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2024/12/13/epa-california-climate-cars-evs/

Looks like 11 other states will be included in this. Will be very good for Musk.

Not really. Tesla was hugely important for creating a market for EV. But there has been a lot of innovation since then and most of the major car companies are heading in that direction regardless. Much of Europe has adopted similar restrictions on the sale of new old-timey combustion engine vehicles. And these days, China is the biggest exporter of EV. Any car company that's all in for combustion engines in 2035 is doomed.

The other electrics are failures. Tesla is the only car that matters. Europe does have good models, but they are much more expensive, around 200k.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Maryland is so stupid for joining this. The only thing that is going to happen is that used cars will get more expensive.

EV market is changing quickly. The 2025 Chevrolet Equinox is priced at $25,500 and that price is based off the battery price of 2024. In 3 years EV will likely be 25-35% cheaper vs comparable gas powered cars with a range of 400 miles. EVs are really easy to build and nothing sell cars like price.

If you are a never electric think of every EV on the road as reducing the demand on gas and lowering price per gallon for you.

If they are going to be so much cheaper, then there is no reason to ban the gas cars. No one will buy them.
The reality is consumers are rejecting electric cars. Car companies raise prices on gas models to meet the mandates and cover their losses on electrics.
However, if electrics are mandatory, then there will be no gas cars on which to raise prices to cover these losses. They will get more expensive not cheaper.

And during the election Harris said she wasn't going to tell you what type of car you have to drive. Another lie.

Good for Newsom, grid can't support it and people won't want it. EVs will still be under a third of cars sold in 2035.

Hopefully, Trump (or his EPA) will overturn this.

You should be allowed to buy any car you want.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Maryland is so stupid for joining this. The only thing that is going to happen is that used cars will get more expensive.

EV market is changing quickly. The 2025 Chevrolet Equinox is priced at $25,500 and that price is based off the battery price of 2024. In 3 years EV will likely be 25-35% cheaper vs comparable gas powered cars with a range of 400 miles. EVs are really easy to build and nothing sell cars like price.

If you are a never electric think of every EV on the road as reducing the demand on gas and lowering price per gallon for you.

Doesn’t matter if the charging network is not there and repair and insurance costs remain high (any damage to battery pack from minor accident can total the car).

It is not clear to me why Democrats are so fixated on choosing technology instead of setting standards and letting the market find the most efficient technology.

This sort of market coercive policy will always be a failure under capitalism.

Anonymous wrote:Maryland is so stupid for joining this. The only thing that is going to happen is that used cars will get more expensive.

EV market is changing quickly. The 2025 Chevrolet Equinox is priced at $25,500 and that price is based off the battery price of 2024. In 3 years EV will likely be 25-35% cheaper vs comparable gas powered cars with a range of 400 miles. EVs are really easy to build and nothing sell cars like price.

If you are a never electric think of every EV on the road as reducing the demand on gas and lowering price per gallon for you.

Maryland is so stupid for joining this. The only thing that is going to happen is that used cars will get more expensive.

Anonymous wrote:

The Environmental Protection Agency plans to grant the state the right to set stronger climate rules for cars, SUVs and pickup trucks as soon as next week.
The Environmental Protection Agency plans to grant California permission to set stronger climate rules for cars and SUVs — a move that President-elect Donald Trump could attempt to reverse — according to two people briefed on the matter.
Ask your climate questions. With the help of generative Al, we'll try to deliver answers based on our published reporting.

The EPA intends to issue California a waiver as soon as next week to enforce its rule aimed at banning sales of new gasoline-powered cars in the state by 2035, said the two people, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to comment publicly. The Trump administration will probably try to revoke the waiver, although those efforts could run into legal obstacles.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2024/12/13/epa-california-climate-cars-evs/

Looks like 11 other states will be included in this. Will be very good for Musk.

Not really. Tesla was hugely important for creating a market for EV. But there has been a lot of innovation since then and most of the major car companies are heading in that direction regardless. Much of Europe has adopted similar restrictions on the sale of new old-timey combustion engine vehicles. And these days, China is the biggest exporter of EV. Any car company that's all in for combustion engines in 2035 is doomed.

The Environmental Protection Agency plans to grant the state the right to set stronger climate rules for cars, SUVs and pickup trucks as soon as next week.
The Environmental Protection Agency plans to grant California permission to set stronger climate rules for cars and SUVs — a move that President-elect Donald Trump could attempt to reverse — according to two people briefed on the matter.
Ask your climate questions. With the help of generative Al, we'll try to deliver answers based on our published reporting.

The EPA intends to issue California a waiver as soon as next week to enforce its rule aimed at banning sales of new gasoline-powered cars in the state by 2035, said the two people, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to comment publicly. The Trump administration will probably try to revoke the waiver, although those efforts could run into legal obstacles.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2024/12/13/epa-california-climate-cars-evs/

Looks like 11 other states will be included in this. Will be very good for Musk.