Anonymous
Post 08/19/2024 17:02     Subject: Electoral college map
Anonymous wrote:As I see it, if the election were today:

AZ = tossup
GA = Trump ahead with a small lead
MI = Harris ahead
NC = Trump lead shrinking, may yet be in play
NV = Trump ahead
PA = tossup but Harris trending sharply up
WI - Harris ahead



Now factor in the states where weed and abortion are directly on the ballot.
And in NC, factor in the insane GOP candidate for governor.
Anonymous
Post 08/19/2024 16:44     Subject: Electoral college map
I think AZ, NV, GA will go red, and leaning PA going red, too. I just don't think Harris has the numbers in those states.
Anonymous
Post 08/19/2024 16:40     Subject: Electoral college map
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:At this point there is almost no chance that WI or MI go red.

So factor those out of the top options.

Also, there is a better than decent chance NC goes blue. OP which side do you have that on?


I agree, and that includes the pissed off Arab voters Metro Detroit sitting this one out. Detroit’s black vote is going to come out in droves, which will tips the scales.


The arab vote in MI isn't even that big, and the fact is, they know they will be deported under Trump so they won't really stay home.

Add to it the stronger Union vote and frankly the Dems own the state right now politically and are doing great there.


Yes you are right! 101,623 voted uncommitted or 13.2% of the dem vote in Michigan.
Pennsylvania between Dean Phillips and uncommitted 120,000 or 12%. Remember the turn out for the primary was about 1/2 vs 2020.

Looks like you are wrong no matter how many time you repeat the same post.

Voting "uncommitted" in a basically-uncontested primary to make a statement is not the same thing as staying home in November when doing so risks another Trump presidency. I'm not saying those people aren't "principled" enough to do it, just that it's not the same thing.
Anonymous
Post 08/19/2024 16:32     Subject: Electoral college map
As I see it, if the election were today:

AZ = tossup
GA = Trump ahead with a small lead
MI = Harris ahead
NC = Trump lead shrinking, may yet be in play
NV = Trump ahead
PA = tossup but Harris trending sharply up
WI - Harris ahead


Anonymous
Post 08/19/2024 16:25     Subject: Electoral college map
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:At this point there is almost no chance that WI or MI go red.

So factor those out of the top options.

Also, there is a better than decent chance NC goes blue. OP which side do you have that on?


I agree, and that includes the pissed off Arab voters Metro Detroit sitting this one out. Detroit’s black vote is going to come out in droves, which will tips the scales.


The arab vote in MI isn't even that big, and the fact is, they know they will be deported under Trump so they won't really stay home.

Add to it the stronger Union vote and frankly the Dems own the state right now politically and are doing great there.


Yes you are right! 101,623 voted uncommitted or 13.2% of the dem vote in Michigan.
Pennsylvania between Dean Phillips and uncommitted 120,000 or 12%. Remember the turn out for the primary was about 1/2 vs 2020.

Looks like you are wrong no matter how many time you repeat the same post.


So you think all of those voters are staying home in the face of a potential Trump presidency? THAT is unrealistic.
Anonymous
Post 08/19/2024 16:18     Subject: Electoral college map
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:At this point there is almost no chance that WI or MI go red.

So factor those out of the top options.

Also, there is a better than decent chance NC goes blue. OP which side do you have that on?


I agree, and that includes the pissed off Arab voters Metro Detroit sitting this one out. Detroit’s black vote is going to come out in droves, which will tips the scales.


The arab vote in MI isn't even that big, and the fact is, they know they will be deported under Trump so they won't really stay home.

Add to it the stronger Union vote and frankly the Dems own the state right now politically and are doing great there.


Yes you are right! 101,623 voted uncommitted or 13.2% of the dem vote in Michigan.
Pennsylvania between Dean Phillips and uncommitted 120,000 or 12%. Remember the turn out for the primary was about 1/2 vs 2020.

Looks like you are wrong no matter how many time you repeat the same post.
Anonymous
Post 08/19/2024 16:15     Subject: Electoral college map
Good combos but forgets the Nebraska district around Omaha which is the tiebreaker. It’s wild how close these all have been, I was telling my college student daughter how Obama in 2008 was called as soon as the polls closed on the west coast and she couldn’t believe it.

But bottom line is that all Trump needs are the normally always Republican states plus Pennsylvania and Georgia. Act accordingly. I have plans to doorknock later this year for Harris in Susan Wild’s PA Congressional District.
Anonymous
Post 08/19/2024 16:10     Subject: Electoral college map
Anonymous wrote:So right now these are the combinations for victory.

12 combinations that put the Republicans over 270.

1 PA GA 270
2 PA MI AZ 280
3 GA MI AZ 277
4 PA MI WI 279
5 GA MI WI 276
6 PA AZ WI 275
7 GA AZ WI 272
8 MI AZ WI 271
9 PA MI NV 275
10 GA MI NV 272
11 PA AZ NV 271
12 PA WI NV 270

For Dems 9 combinations.

1 PA GA MI 276
2 PA GA AZ 272
3 PA MI AZ 271
4 PA GA WI 271
5 PA MI WI 270
6 GA MI AZ WI 278
7 GA MI AZ NV 274
8 GA MI WI NV 273
9 PA AZ WI NV 272

One tie

1 PA GA MI AZ WI NV 269

https://www.270towin.com/road-to-270-combinations/?mapstr=42201311140142322221130522242253301423012224231102214252&year=2024


For a tie it is Pa and Mi red

Ga, Az Wi and Nz blue.
Anonymous
Post 08/19/2024 15:50     Subject: Electoral college map
So taking the options out that are VERY unlikely leaves

PA GA 270
PA AZ NV 271

And if either of these assumes NC in the red column, then...
Anonymous
Post 08/19/2024 15:49     Subject: Electoral college map
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:At this point there is almost no chance that WI or MI go red.

So factor those out of the top options.

Also, there is a better than decent chance NC goes blue. OP which side do you have that on?


I agree, and that includes the pissed off Arab voters Metro Detroit sitting this one out. Detroit’s black vote is going to come out in droves, which will tips the scales.


The arab vote in MI isn't even that big, and the fact is, they know they will be deported under Trump so they won't really stay home.

Add to it the stronger Union vote and frankly the Dems own the state right now politically and are doing great there.
Anonymous
Post 08/19/2024 15:47     Subject: Electoral college map
Anonymous wrote:At this point there is almost no chance that WI or MI go red.

So factor those out of the top options.

Also, there is a better than decent chance NC goes blue. OP which side do you have that on?


I agree, and that includes the pissed off Arab voters Metro Detroit sitting this one out. Detroit’s black vote is going to come out in droves, which will tips the scales.
Anonymous
Post 08/19/2024 15:44     Subject: Electoral college map
Even if a comment is good, the laughing emoji is off putting.
Anonymous
Post 08/19/2024 15:44     Subject: Electoral college map
At this point there is almost no chance that WI or MI go red.

So factor those out of the top options.

Also, there is a better than decent chance NC goes blue. OP which side do you have that on?
Anonymous
Post 08/19/2024 15:44     Subject: Re:Electoral college map
We need to do away with the Electoral College already.
Anonymous
Post 08/19/2024 15:42     Subject: Electoral college map
So right now these are the combinations for victory.

12 combinations that put the Republicans over 270.

1 PA GA 270
2 PA MI AZ 280
3 GA MI AZ 277
4 PA MI WI 279
5 GA MI WI 276
6 PA AZ WI 275
7 GA AZ WI 272
8 MI AZ WI 271
9 PA MI NV 275
10 GA MI NV 272
11 PA AZ NV 271
12 PA WI NV 270

For Dems 9 combinations.

1 PA GA MI 276
2 PA GA AZ 272
3 PA MI AZ 271
4 PA GA WI 271
5 PA MI WI 270
6 GA MI AZ WI 278
7 GA MI AZ NV 274
8 GA MI WI NV 273
9 PA AZ WI NV 272

One tie

1 PA GA MI AZ WI NV 269

https://www.270towin.com/road-to-270-combinations/?mapstr=42201311140142322221130522242253301423012224231102214252&year=2024