Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:People really, really overstate the power of AI. The potential is there but there’s a long way to go.

Besides, CEOs aren’t going to put them and their buds out of work.

You come across like the CEO of a buggy-whip manufacturer.

PP is right. AI has a lot of potential but has a long way to go, including overcoming major physical/practical barriers. I’m in the industry and expectations/hype in no way matches the short/medium term use cases.

AI is currently far, far exceeding the hype. Studies continue to find that the number of “secret cyborgs” (people who do most of all of their job using AI) is skyrocketing and even so estimates likely vastly underreport.

And the reasons are obvious - as the owner of a small software product company, a combination of ChatGPT and Copilot can do more, better, with less direction for me than 5-6 junior developers that I have to hire, manage and train. I’m far more productive and follow best practices more now on my own with AI tools (e.g. complete test coverage, far more re usability, loose coupling, SOLID principals, etc.) than with employees working for me previously.

Yeah but junior developers are doing extremely basic tasks most of the time, so it's not surprising, though I know a lot of devs who say they spend more time debugging when they GPT-generated code.
The real question is... who's going to be doing the more advanced stuff in the long run?

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:People really, really overstate the power of AI. The potential is there but there’s a long way to go.

Besides, CEOs aren’t going to put them and their buds out of work.

You come across like the CEO of a buggy-whip manufacturer.

PP is right. AI has a lot of potential but has a long way to go, including overcoming major physical/practical barriers. I’m in the industry and expectations/hype in no way matches the short/medium term use cases.

AI is currently far, far exceeding the hype. Studies continue to find that the number of “secret cyborgs” (people who do most of all of their job using AI) is skyrocketing and even so estimates likely vastly underreport.

And the reasons are obvious - as the owner of a small software product company, a combination of ChatGPT and Copilot can do more, better, with less direction for me than 5-6 junior developers that I have to hire, manage and train. I’m far more productive and follow best practices more now on my own with AI tools (e.g. complete test coverage, far more re usability, loose coupling, SOLID principals, etc.) than with employees working for me previously.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:People really, really overstate the power of AI. The potential is there but there’s a long way to go.

Besides, CEOs aren’t going to put them and their buds out of work.

You come across like the CEO of a buggy-whip manufacturer.

PP is right. AI has a lot of potential but has a long way to go, including overcoming major physical/practical barriers. I’m in the industry and expectations/hype in no way matches the short/medium term use cases.

Nobody in the industry thinks this.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:People really, really overstate the power of AI. The potential is there but there’s a long way to go.

Besides, CEOs aren’t going to put them and their buds out of work.

You come across like the CEO of a buggy-whip manufacturer.

PP is right. AI has a lot of potential but has a long way to go, including overcoming major physical/practical barriers. I’m in the industry and expectations/hype in no way matches the short/medium term use cases.

Anonymous wrote:It's fine if you don't like your job, but changing because of AI is odd. AI is just a tool. When word processors were invented, typing pools went away but the need to type, and think up what to type, didn't: this will be a similar transformation.

What skills do you have that would help you in an offline job? How little are you wiling to earn? Could you re-train, eg in a trade?

People like Ethan Mollick who research this stuff say that the biggest previous general purpose tech disruption to the job market was from steam engines. AI in its current form is estimated to have about 4 times the impact of steam engines on the economy. There will absolutely be an enormous impact on employment.

As a software developer, I can work about 3 times as fast using AI to generate repetitive code and to debug issues. If I were in the private sector, I could fire most of the team I manage and get more done more quickly with fewer mistakes.

Anonymous wrote:People really, really overstate the power of AI. The potential is there but there’s a long way to go.

Besides, CEOs aren’t going to put them and their buds out of work.

You come across like the CEO of a buggy-whip manufacturer.

People really, really overstate the power of AI. The potential is there but there’s a long way to go.

Besides, CEOs aren’t going to put them and their buds out of work.

Already have recent thread about this silly idea.

It's fine if you don't like your job, but changing because of AI is odd. AI is just a tool. When word processors were invented, typing pools went away but the need to type, and think up what to type, didn't: this will be a similar transformation.

What skills do you have that would help you in an offline job? How little are you wiling to earn? Could you re-train, eg in a trade?

I have a doctorate too and have worked in an AI-focused company in tech. I still think we need another breakthrough before it gets really serious, but I could see it happening in the next decade or two.

I regularly dream of going to pastry school. But it's too physically demanding. I have bakers in my family and I know it's hard and very unglamorous work. Still. I prefer to be screen-free.

I was at a AI workshop last week. One of the really interesting things I saw was a visual depiction of all roles in an org, split into ai-doable tasks and human-required tasks. Upshot is that pretty much every role, from security guard to CEO, was a mix of both (the exact mix differed). So your premise that there’s some category of jobs that are more or less immune is probably false.

I totally get your desire to spend less time locked at a computer though. My recent conclusion is that running a non-computer based small business might be the best option there. I’ve recently gotten pulled into that as a volunteer and the variety of tasks, movement during the day (to stock inventory, to get to work sites, to talk to vendors) has really demonstrated to me that there’s a world beyond my usually 9-5 (or 7:30-6) wall of zoom meetings and online work.

Can you train AI to pluck all the stupid dandelions on my lawn.

Anonymous wrote:Teacher

No way.

I was a teacher in the 1990s. I put in enough time in the classroom to know it wasn't for me.

I am thinking of something different.

Teacher

I find myself wanting to do something AI or a robot can't ever do, besides birthing a baby.

I have a doctorate.

I am tired of spending so much time online.

I am thinking of other options besides remote or in office positions.