No, this is not a recession.

There is always a lot of data cooking to get to these unemployment numbers- look at the share of employed adults ages 18-55 over years to see a more accurate figure.

Churn in the employment market is definitely up but that’s different than true unemployment.

If you are worried about getting laid off, sock away in your emergency fund.

Anonymous wrote:The gap is widening, so some people feel like we are in a boom and others feel like we are in a bust.

Plus, restaurants have decided they should be paid well for their craft and chose to keep prices at pandemic highs. People notice that because it is one the more frequently purchased items.

I see this also. It’s tough.

No. The Atlanta Fed’s GDP nowcast is running at 2.9%. We will get the first estimate of first quarter GDP later this week.

The gap is widening, so some people feel like we are in a boom and others feel like we are in a bust.

Plus, restaurants have decided they should be paid well for their craft and chose to keep prices at pandemic highs. People notice that because it is one the more frequently purchased items.

Anonymous wrote:Baseless doomerism (often fueled by cultural/political resentments) is a huge cottage industry around here.

‘Envy of the World’—U.S. Economy Expected to Keep Powering Higher
https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/economy-forecast-lower-recession-chances-1f24174b

Just remember - just becasue things are going poorly for you - doesn't mean the vast majority of other people aren't doing great.

"let them eat teslas" t. beneficiary of gov largess (you)

Baseless doomerism (often fueled by cultural/political resentments) is a huge cottage industry around here.

‘Envy of the World’—U.S. Economy Expected to Keep Powering Higher
https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/economy-forecast-lower-recession-chances-1f24174b

Just remember - just becasue things are going poorly for you - doesn't mean the vast majority of other people aren't doing great.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Yeah I don't buy the BS that the BLS is trying to sell me. 3.8% unemployment? That's just what they want you to believe, man. The vibes are off, and that's all that really matters.

Employment truly is that low, and new jobs keep getting added. The problem is that the jobs aren’t any good — they do not offer a living wage. So the low unemployment numbers matter, but they don’t paint the same picture that they used to.

+1.

Anonymous wrote:Great! You are NOT seeing the start of a recession. You are seeing the market working--as in people are saying I am not going to pay X for Y good. This is the only way we are going to see inflation go down. Now CEOs will have to lower prices to bring consumers back rather than simply passing profits to shareholders. I have noticed my grocery bill is starting to creep down. So I am glad people are stopping with the crazy spending.

What you are talking about is deflation and generally speaking that's not going to happen. Disinflation is happening which is the slowing of prices but prices are not going back to what they used to be.

Anonymous wrote:Great! You are NOT seeing the start of a recession. You are seeing the market working--as in people are saying I am not going to pay X for Y good. This is the only way we are going to see inflation go down. Now CEOs will have to lower prices to bring consumers back rather than simply passing profits to shareholders. I have noticed my grocery bill is starting to creep down. So I am glad people are stopping with the crazy spending.

You literally described what a recession is.

Great! You are NOT seeing the start of a recession. You are seeing the market working--as in people are saying I am not going to pay X for Y good. This is the only way we are going to see inflation go down. Now CEOs will have to lower prices to bring consumers back rather than simply passing profits to shareholders. I have noticed my grocery bill is starting to creep down. So I am glad people are stopping with the crazy spending.

I noticed the ski resorts in Summit County were relatively empty this season and it gave me pause. We've been there every year for 15 years and I've seen it like that only a few times.

I also have personally made an effort to spend less on stuff I don't need. Like a Starbucks trip with my daughter now costs $20 when it used to cost $12. Going for a casual dinner is always over $100 when it used to be $70. Yeah, just makes me not want to do those things anymore.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Yeah I don't buy the BS that the BLS is trying to sell me. 3.8% unemployment? That's just what they want you to believe, man. The vibes are off, and that's all that really matters.

Employment truly is that low, and new jobs keep getting added. The problem is that the jobs aren’t any good — they do not offer a living wage. So the low unemployment numbers matter, but they don’t paint the same picture that they used to.

most of the jobs growth is in low wage service work and that is why they are pushing for illegal immigration so much

Anonymous wrote:Yeah I don't buy the BS that the BLS is trying to sell me. 3.8% unemployment? That's just what they want you to believe, man. The vibes are off, and that's all that really matters.

Employment truly is that low, and new jobs keep getting added. The problem is that the jobs aren’t any good — they do not offer a living wage. So the low unemployment numbers matter, but they don’t paint the same picture that they used to.

Yeah I don't buy the BS that the BLS is trying to sell me. 3.8% unemployment? That's just what they want you to believe, man. The vibes are off, and that's all that really matters.

Can't quite put my finger on it, but there seems to be less people at previously busy restaurants, also IT jobs seems more scarce. Still see plenty of for hire signs around, but something feels off. Anyone else get the feeling.