DD just finished tonight. She applied to 20 and was going to add another one but we told her to Stop! The deferral makes them doubt themselves and they over compensate by over applying. It is so terribly stressful for these kids. Purely anecdotal but many high stats unhooked kids were shut out of ED/EA. The kids who got in had lower stats but were multi-legacy, money, or sports. This really pushes the rejects to apply to many more schools. ED2 and RD will be interesting.

Anonymous wrote:Hearing 25-30 not that uncommon (and opening the secondary account) for boys who got dinged in ED….

For those in California, it's easy to start with 6 - 8 right off the bat with UC and CSU schools. Adding 4- 6 Ivy programs, along with another couple of handfuls of Top 30 schools seems pretty standard for a lot of high performing students in California.

Anonymous wrote:Isn't this going to just shut out kids who are below top the 10% of a high school class from any top 40 schools?
I worry about this. If you have your very top students applying everywhere in mass then the next level looks comparatively lousy and what happens to them?

this is especially true in privates when you may have 10 kids who have a 3.95. If they apply everywhere, what happens to the 3.7-3.8s? Traditionally they would get some spots at top 40 schools that the top 10 students ts did not apply to or matriculate to.

I assume the 3.5 or so (at privates where this can be half of the class) and below apply to different schools entirely.

No - schools care about kids enrolling.
So if a kid is a great applicant and the school thinks they are going to enroll - they will accept them.
My DS applied ED to a top 50 school. A classmate with much higher stats applied EA and was deferred. I do not know what priorities each applicant would be filling - but it is not all about GPA.

Anonymous wrote:My kid was at 8, but than a deferral that should have been a sure thing (according to counselors, ppl at school, etc) made my kid panic and submit a bunch more over break. He was always going to be around 6-8. If he had gotten into the EA--he would have stopped. He ended up doing 9 over break for a total of 17 which seems crazy to us. But, I'm hearing it's norm for kids with his stats (UW 4.0, high scores, etc)

What school?

I don't think high-stats students applying to 15+ schools is going to result in other students getting shut out so long as a student can ultimately only enroll in a single school. Each school's institutional analysis department will have a pretty good understanding of the percentage of admitted students likely to accept their offers (yield). Occasionally they underestimate and over admit, in which case more (not fewer) students get it. More often, they slightly overestimate their yield such they are short of a full class immediately after the RD round, in which case they fill the empty spots from the waitlist.

That said, I suspect that the greater number of applications per student is responsible for the greater unpredictability. And the greater unpredictability is responsible for the greater number of applications per student, creating a vicious cycle.

Anonymous wrote:Isn't this going to just shut out kids who are below top the 10% of a high school class from any top 40 schools?
I worry about this. If you have your very top students applying everywhere in mass then the next level looks comparatively lousy and what happens to them?

this is especially true in privates when you may have 10 kids who have a 3.95. If they apply everywhere, what happens to the 3.7-3.8s? Traditionally they would get some spots at top 40 schools that the top 10 students ts did not apply to or matriculate to.

I assume the 3.5 or so (at privates where this can be half of the class) and below apply to different schools entirely.

I wonder about this, too, but not just at privates. My DC had a friend who got in almost everywhere last year and one who didn’t have the same results.

Isn't this going to just shut out kids who are below top the 10% of a high school class from any top 40 schools?
I worry about this. If you have your very top students applying everywhere in mass then the next level looks comparatively lousy and what happens to them?

this is especially true in privates when you may have 10 kids who have a 3.95. If they apply everywhere, what happens to the 3.7-3.8s? Traditionally they would get some spots at top 40 schools that the top 10 students ts did not apply to or matriculate to.

I assume the 3.5 or so (at privates where this can be half of the class) and below apply to different schools entirely.

Anonymous wrote:Yes--think the ED deferrals/declines spur kids to add a ton of schools.

Yes. It’s been a shocking Early season…. even for schools that likely would have admitted the kids early last year… Not following the same formula clearly this year.

30 might be right for some kids.

My high-stats DC has submitted 5 applications so far and will submit another 5-6 more soon. Given the ordeal of meeting the various requirements (supplemental essays, etc.) of 10-11 schools in our household, I'm not envious of people who apply to even more schools. Maybe it comes easier to other kids, but it's been a massive pain in our household.

DC is in EA at our local public flagship, and while it'd be great if DC got into a T20 university or LAC, DC is far from hellbent on it. If DC were, I suppose DC might have submitted more applications. Instead, DC's applications focused on a careful selection of targets and reaches.

Yes--think the ED deferrals/declines spur kids to add a ton of schools.

My kid was at 8, but than a deferral that should have been a sure thing (according to counselors, ppl at school, etc) made my kid panic and submit a bunch more over break. He was always going to be around 6-8. If he had gotten into the EA--he would have stopped. He ended up doing 9 over break for a total of 17 which seems crazy to us. But, I'm hearing it's norm for kids with his stats (UW 4.0, high scores, etc)

Anonymous wrote:OMG!

No, but I have heard higher numbers this year since---yep--it is getting harder each passing year.

It was not unheard of to hear 15-17 this year.

The past two years it seemed nobody went past 12 and averaged about 6-9.

The higher stat kids are applying to more selective colleges so tend to have more 'reaches' due to low acceptance numbers--not their stats. When you see top 15 schools posting 3%-7% acceptance rates, 20% still at T30, you can see why these kids are adding more.

What were safeties even two years ago have moved to targets, targets are moving to reaches, etc.

15-20 seemed to be the norm before winter break. But maybe ppl are adding more on?

I have a bunch of relatives who my kids are similar ages to. For kids shooting for "prestige" / "name brand" a lot of them applied to 18-20 schools.
For families that needed to consider different aid packages it was near 20 as well.
For the kids who had a specific focus - the numbers were significantly lower (less than 10)
For the kids who prioritized fit it was close to 10

OMG!

No, but I have heard higher numbers this year since---yep--it is getting harder each passing year.

It was not unheard of to hear 15-17 this year.

The past two years it seemed nobody went past 12 and averaged about 6-9.

The higher stat kids are applying to more selective colleges so tend to have more 'reaches' due to low acceptance numbers--not their stats. When you see top 15 schools posting 3%-7% acceptance rates, 20% still at T30, you can see why these kids are adding more.

What were safeties even two years ago have moved to targets, targets are moving to reaches, etc.

Hearing 25-30 not that uncommon (and opening the secondary account) for boys who got dinged in ED….