Anonymous wrote:I have 2 friends who recently “tested” the market through non MLS listings. Both ultimately decided to rent when they couldn’t get the price they wanted. One did a big reno on their rowhouse and couldn’t recoup costs. The other wants to make 20% over what they paid for their condo 5 years ago and just can’t. Both live in areas of NE that 20 years ago most DC residents would not have considered safe. They both easily and quickly found renters at prices that cover their costs and leave them with a profit but are cheaper than the new H St NE big apartment buildings. If they hadn’t have found renters, I think they would have had to consider listing for lower prices

Are both leaving because of crime?

I have 2 friends who recently “tested” the market through non MLS listings. Both ultimately decided to rent when they couldn’t get the price they wanted. One did a big reno on their rowhouse and couldn’t recoup costs. The other wants to make 20% over what they paid for their condo 5 years ago and just can’t. Both live in areas of NE that 20 years ago most DC residents would not have considered safe. They both easily and quickly found renters at prices that cover their costs and leave them with a profit but are cheaper than the new H St NE big apartment buildings. If they hadn’t have found renters, I think they would have had to consider listing for lower prices

There's a scene in American Psycho where a realtor cleans up and hides a macabre scene leftover from a serial killer just so she could sell a posh condo. I imagine DC will be like that before prices go down. Restaurants with outside seats and bullet proof partitions next to the sidewalk too.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Arlington agent here. I settled three houses this year and have another settling in a few days for people leaving DC because of crime. All of them rented their properties, so the rental market doesn't seem to be affected by the crime rate.

Cannot wait to hear their stories when they try to sell their DC rental. Dumb move on their parts, they should have sold those homes. You should have advised them to do so.

Find the right renters and there are no TOPA problems.

DC landlord of multiple properties.

Anonymous wrote:While there is an increase in crime, it doesn't outweigh all the other factors. The odds of me being carjacked are still really low. The odds of me having a crappy commute from Virginia are pretty high.

It's really hard to parse hype about crime from actual risk, but I guess home prices speak loudly.

This was always the calculus, but with WFH and hybrid here to stay I’m willing to bet that a lot of home buyers won’t put commute over a lower sense of personal safety. Also, the days of the city being the only place to go for nice restaurants/bars is over. A lot of the inner suburbs offer the same type of walkable amenities, but with lower crime. Bethesda, Arlington, Del Ray, and some of the close in town centers like Mosaic come to mind.

While there is an increase in crime, it doesn't outweigh all the other factors. The odds of me being carjacked are still really low. The odds of me having a crappy commute from Virginia are pretty high.

It's really hard to parse hype about crime from actual risk, but I guess home prices speak loudly.

We moved from DC to Alexandria in part due to crime. We sold our DC condo because I didn’t see it appreciating much, and it has likely declined in value a bit since we sold it last year.

I bet DC will get a handle on the crime wave eventually, but I think it will take a loooong time and I got tired of the trend constantly going in the wrong direction.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Arlington agent here. I settled three houses this year and have another settling in a few days for people leaving DC because of crime. All of them rented their properties, so the rental market doesn't seem to be affected by the crime rate.

Cannot wait to hear their stories when they try to sell their DC rental. Dumb move on their parts, they should have sold those homes. You should have advised them to do so.

They probably have a sub-3% interest rate and keeping the property is a hedge that crime will improve in DC (hint: it will).

The current crime wave is driven by deliberate policy choices made by entrenched actors. Those policies (and actors) will change at some point.

Even in the awful 80s and 90s, DC prices were either rising or flat AND exceeded national trends:

My comment was not related to crime. It's related to the blindly, pro-tenant policies of the DC govt. If you are a landlord you are screwed. There are pretty much no protections in place for you because you're unworthy scum in the eyes of DC. You want to be a low life tenant though? Come on in! Don't pay your rent, it doesn't matter there is nothing anyone can do to you. The homeowner wants to sell the home when your lease is up? Too bad for them, you the tenant have the right of first refusal, and you can also just refuse to leave - aka "squat".

Anonymous wrote:Unless they are murdering home buyers why would it matter.

The crime has gotten more random in the past 18 months. The carjackings, dog thefts, and some of the shootings are now targeted at "civilians" who are not involved in neighborhood beefs/rivalries or the drug trade. But still, the vast majority of gun crimes happening in the city are contained in the same pockets and among those with interpersonal issues that don't correlate strongly with DC homeownership.

But there's still way more demand than supply in DC itself for prices to meaningfully decline in response to upticks in crime. We now have 4 generations of buyers in the housing market at the same time (Boomers, X, Millennials, and elder Gen Z). This country has never had such a large pool of potential buyers and supply has not increased enough to offset the demand hikes. Plus plenty of DC home owners keep their DC property if they move elsewhere, given their high incomes.

Unless they are murdering home buyers why would it matter.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Arlington agent here. I settled three houses this year and have another settling in a few days for people leaving DC because of crime. All of them rented their properties, so the rental market doesn't seem to be affected by the crime rate.

Cannot wait to hear their stories when they try to sell their DC rental. Dumb move on their parts, they should have sold those homes. You should have advised them to do so.

They probably have a sub-3% interest rate and keeping the property is a hedge that crime will improve in DC (hint: it will).

The current crime wave is driven by deliberate policy choices made by entrenched actors. Those policies (and actors) will change at some point.

Even in the awful 80s and 90s, DC prices were either rising or flat AND exceeded national trends:

Anonymous wrote:Arlington agent here. I settled three houses this year and have another settling in a few days for people leaving DC because of crime. All of them rented their properties, so the rental market doesn't seem to be affected by the crime rate.

Cannot wait to hear their stories when they try to sell their DC rental. Dumb move on their parts, they should have sold those homes. You should have advised them to do so.

Arlington agent here. I settled three houses this year and have another settling in a few days for people leaving DC because of crime. All of them rented their properties, so the rental market doesn't seem to be affected by the crime rate.

Supply is constrained in DC. With more federal and other jobs requiring more in-person time, you're going to see urban demand rise in excess of supply offered.

The current crime wave is a result of some very specifics groups within the government who refuse to hold criminals accountable for varying reasons: USAO, certain judges, and a large swath of MPD.

Ironically we are see two sides of the horseshoe - social justice types who want reform but also conservative elements who 'want to stick it' to urban liberals. They are both implementing the same policies but for different reasons, much to the dismay of any normal DC resident or commuter who is a victim of crime.

When will the rising murder rate start affecting DC housing prices? So far, rowhomes in places like H Street NE are still selling for a premium, like this one: https://www.redfin.com/DC/Washington/622-G-St-NE-20002/home/9898467.

At what point does the murder rate start actually depressing real estate values? 300 murders? 500 murders like we had in the 90s?

For DC homeowners who have stuck it out, at what point will crime get so bad that you’d want to move or are you in for long haul no matter what happens?