Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I grew up in an area where natural disasters were frequent enough that they didn't scare people like they do to people who aren't used to them. So I'm definitely familiar with that "eh it'll be fine" mentality (not that I agree with it)

I’m not debating evacuating or not, but her phrasing is ridiculous. If it turned S last time and avoided her, who is to say this one won’t also turn S and hit her directly?

I also live in Tampa Bay and am not evacuating, and let me explain this to you:

1. Mandatory evacuation orders don't apply to everyone in the area. They apply to people in certain evacuation zones. So evacuation zone A gets the mandatory order first - those are the people closest to the water. There are zones B, C, and D - these are further and further out from the water. You may get a mandatory order for more of the zones, the worse the storm is expected to be. Right now it's just zone A that's got the order in Hillsborough County, where Tampa is. We live in zone X, which means we are never mandated to evacuate, even though our county is under an evacuation order.

If you don't know what zone your friend is in, you don't know if she's been mandated to evacuate - and some people choose not to evacuate even if there is an order for their zone, for good and bad reasons.

2. Your friend is correct that we don't know where the hurricane is going to hit exactly, yet. Hurricanes move, they have uncertain paths. When we were new to Florida, we decided to evacuate for our first hurricane - which looked like it was bearing right down on us. We ended up evacuating across the state - and in the end, the hurricane hit where we'd evacuated to, and when we finally got home we hadn't even lost power here.

3. There are costs and dangers to leaving. The airports are closed and gas is hard to come by. You can only get as far as one tank of gas will get you - and you may end up stuck in traffic on the highway as the hurricane is coming. That is a worst case scenario. More likely, you get a hotel in Orlando - and then the hurricane hits Orlando. Or wherever. You can end up putting yourself in danger, trying to escape danger. For many many people, the safest thing to do is hunker down at home. That is not the case if you are in a trailer park, or a house right on the beach - but if you are inland at all, in a solid house, you usually want to buy flashlights, cookies, and water, and just stay put.

Your friend is making a rational decision - it may not be the decision you'd make, but it's not crazy. People outside of Florida don't really understand what it's like living with hurricanes. My parents still call asking me to go evacuate - and as many times as I tell them that there is nowhere to evacuate to, because you don't know where the hurricane is actually going to hit and you can only get as far as one tank of gas will take you, they still have to say it. So you're just thinking this through like everyone outside of Florida is thinking this through - but your friend is thinking it through like someone who actually lives with these storms.

Yeah, she lives on the Intracoastal and has four kids and an infant. Do you still feel the same?

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I grew up in an area where natural disasters were frequent enough that they didn't scare people like they do to people who aren't used to them. So I'm definitely familiar with that "eh it'll be fine" mentality (not that I agree with it)

I’m not debating evacuating or not, but her phrasing is ridiculous. If it turned S last time and avoided her, who is to say this one won’t also turn S and hit her directly?

I also live in Tampa Bay and am not evacuating, and let me explain this to you:

1. Mandatory evacuation orders don't apply to everyone in the area. They apply to people in certain evacuation zones. So evacuation zone A gets the mandatory order first - those are the people closest to the water. There are zones B, C, and D - these are further and further out from the water. You may get a mandatory order for more of the zones, the worse the storm is expected to be. Right now it's just zone A that's got the order in Hillsborough County, where Tampa is. We live in zone X, which means we are never mandated to evacuate, even though our county is under an evacuation order.

If you don't know what zone your friend is in, you don't know if she's been mandated to evacuate - and some people choose not to evacuate even if there is an order for their zone, for good and bad reasons.

2. Your friend is correct that we don't know where the hurricane is going to hit exactly, yet. Hurricanes move, they have uncertain paths. When we were new to Florida, we decided to evacuate for our first hurricane - which looked like it was bearing right down on us. We ended up evacuating across the state - and in the end, the hurricane hit where we'd evacuated to, and when we finally got home we hadn't even lost power here.

3. There are costs and dangers to leaving. The airports are closed and gas is hard to come by. You can only get as far as one tank of gas will get you - and you may end up stuck in traffic on the highway as the hurricane is coming. That is a worst case scenario. More likely, you get a hotel in Orlando - and then the hurricane hits Orlando. Or wherever. You can end up putting yourself in danger, trying to escape danger. For many many people, the safest thing to do is hunker down at home. That is not the case if you are in a trailer park, or a house right on the beach - but if you are inland at all, in a solid house, you usually want to buy flashlights, cookies, and water, and just stay put.

Your friend is making a rational decision - it may not be the decision you'd make, but it's not crazy. People outside of Florida don't really understand what it's like living with hurricanes. My parents still call asking me to go evacuate - and as many times as I tell them that there is nowhere to evacuate to, because you don't know where the hurricane is actually going to hit and you can only get as far as one tank of gas will take you, they still have to say it. So you're just thinking this through like everyone outside of Florida is thinking this through - but your friend is thinking it through like someone who actually lives with these storms.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I grew up in an area where natural disasters were frequent enough that they didn't scare people like they do to people who aren't used to them. So I'm definitely familiar with that "eh it'll be fine" mentality (not that I agree with it)

I’m not debating evacuating or not, but her phrasing is ridiculous. If it turned S last time and avoided her, who is to say this one won’t also turn S and hit her directly?

Anonymous wrote:Well we can look forward to seeing her on the news and her harrowing tale of survival and complaints about not having any water.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I grew up in an area where natural disasters were frequent enough that they didn't scare people like they do to people who aren't used to them. So I'm definitely familiar with that "eh it'll be fine" mentality (not that I agree with it)

I’m not debating evacuating or not, but her phrasing is ridiculous. If it turned S last time and avoided her, who is to say this one won’t also turn S and hit her directly?

Don’t they usually turn N?

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I grew up in an area where natural disasters were frequent enough that they didn't scare people like they do to people who aren't used to them. So I'm definitely familiar with that "eh it'll be fine" mentality (not that I agree with it)

I’m not debating evacuating or not, but her phrasing is ridiculous. If it turned S last time and avoided her, who is to say this one won’t also turn S and hit her directly?

Not sure. Ask the folks in Ft. Myers.
Don’t they usually turn N?

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I grew up in an area where natural disasters were frequent enough that they didn't scare people like they do to people who aren't used to them. So I'm definitely familiar with that "eh it'll be fine" mentality (not that I agree with it)

I’m not debating evacuating or not, but her phrasing is ridiculous. If it turned S last time and avoided her, who is to say this one won’t also turn S and hit her directly?

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I grew up in an area where natural disasters were frequent enough that they didn't scare people like they do to people who aren't used to them. So I'm definitely familiar with that "eh it'll be fine" mentality (not that I agree with it)

I’m not debating evacuating or not, but her phrasing is ridiculous. If it turned S last time and avoided her, who is to say this one won’t also turn S and hit her directly?

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I grew up in an area where natural disasters were frequent enough that they didn't scare people like they do to people who aren't used to them. So I'm definitely familiar with that "eh it'll be fine" mentality (not that I agree with it)

I’m not debating evacuating or not, but her phrasing is ridiculous. If it turned S last time and avoided her, who is to say this one won’t also turn S and hit her directly?

Because the phrasing doesn't matter. She doesn't want to evacuate. So she'll tell herself whatever she needs to to justify it. Logic isn't part of it (not really).

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I grew up in an area where natural disasters were frequent enough that they didn't scare people like they do to people who aren't used to them. So I'm definitely familiar with that "eh it'll be fine" mentality (not that I agree with it)

I’m not debating evacuating or not, but her phrasing is ridiculous. If it turned S last time and avoided her, who is to say this one won’t also turn S and hit her directly?

Anonymous wrote:I grew up in an area where natural disasters were frequent enough that they didn't scare people like they do to people who aren't used to them. So I'm definitely familiar with that "eh it'll be fine" mentality (not that I agree with it)