Anonymous wrote:If I’m not allowed to complain about my kid being rezoned to a middle school 4 miles away from the one that is half a mile from my house, none of you are allowed to complain about the shuffle among north elementary schools that are all very close to each other.

No you should absolutely be complaining and advocating for your child. That’s ridiculous.

If I’m not allowed to complain about my kid being rezoned to a middle school 4 miles away from the one that is half a mile from my house, none of you are allowed to complain about the shuffle among north elementary schools that are all very close to each other.

Anonymous wrote:So if you are a current first or second grader at Discovery or Tuckahoe, there's a good chance you won't be graduating from Discovery or Tuckahoe.

You don’t graduate from ES.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Agree this sounds reasonable. And yep, I have a child at one of these schools.

I'm at one of these schools too and trying to figure out if we will ever have any kind of stability in APS?

Bwhahahah. No. No you won’t.

I think this has to be mothers who made all their friends through their kids' friends and are anxious about their grown up gaggle being broken up. I can see no other reason why people would be so over invested in this stuff. The kids are and will be fine. These are all great schools.

Anonymous wrote:Agree this sounds reasonable. And yep, I have a child at one of these schools.

+1

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Agree this sounds reasonable. And yep, I have a child at one of these schools.

I'm at one of these schools too and trying to figure out if we will ever have any kind of stability in APS?

Do you mean boundaries that never ever change? Probably not. We live in an area that's seen a lot of growth and change and will continue to do so. It is what it is. Your child changing schools with others in their planning unit and nearby planning units is not that big of a deal. I moved elementary schools 3 times as a kid living in the same house (not DMV). Big whoop. I think back and try to remember if my parents even noticed or cared.

My kid changed schools going into 2nd grade. It's not that big of a deal.

Anonymous wrote:Agree this sounds reasonable. And yep, I have a child at one of these schools.

I'm at one of these schools too and trying to figure out if we will ever have any kind of stability in APS?

Agree this sounds reasonable. And yep, I have a child at one of these schools.

So what? All those schools are the same anyway.

So if you are a current first or second grader at Discovery or Tuckahoe, there's a good chance you won't be graduating from Discovery or Tuckahoe.

Anonymous wrote:Yes, except APS’s projections are as worthless as the PDF they are printed on. No one is buying a $1.5m house as a “starter home” and then having their 2.5 kids at VHC to enroll them 5 years later. They are moving here from other jurisdictions and areas when it is time to put kids in school.

The Boomer empty nesters are retiring and moving out now and are being replaced with established families with children. That is happening without any zoning changes or new developments. APS knows this is happening but keeps sticking their head in the sand and relying on “birth rate” models that are increasingly irrelevant claiming this is the best they can do.

Which makes their entire plan even more infuriating - they have zero additional capacity in NA if their projections are off by just a little. And has APS ever shown to have accurate projections?

Sounds reasonable.

Yes, except APS’s projections are as worthless as the PDF they are printed on. No one is buying a $1.5m house as a “starter home” and then having their 2.5 kids at VHC to enroll them 5 years later. They are moving here from other jurisdictions and areas when it is time to put kids in school.

The Boomer empty nesters are retiring and moving out now and are being replaced with established families with children. That is happening without any zoning changes or new developments. APS knows this is happening but keeps sticking their head in the sand and relying on “birth rate” models that are increasingly irrelevant claiming this is the best they can do.

It seems that with Nottingham going offline to become a swing space, won't there be an enormous redistricting for the rest of North Arlington elementary schools? The pre-cip report says they'll do a zone 1 (Tuckahoe, Discovery, Jamestown, Taylor and Cardinal) restricting for 2026. I don't see how this doesn't result in huge changes for all of North Arlington elementary schools:

— at least 90 of Discovery’s 455 current students will be sent to Taylor and 50% of Discovery students will be former Nottingham students (APS said both of these in the pre-CIP). Discovery would be at 96 pct capacity if APS models are correct about neighborhood growth.

— at least 100 of Tuckahoe’s 467 current students will be sent to another elementary school, probably Cardinal, to make room for former Nottingham students. (That's almost a quarter of the current school!) This isn't in the pre-CIP but APS said it in responses to parent questions. The pre-cip plan puts Tuckahoe at 115%, though APS has said they will bring that number closer to 97% capacity with a 2026 boundary change. Cardinal seems like the most likely recipient of students.

— APS projects that Cardinal will be at 90% capacity in 2026 before the Nottingham move. With the additional pre-K kids from Nottingham, and the students that Cardinal will have to take from Tuckahoe, Cardinal will be at close to 100% capacity like the rest of North Arlington schools.

— Jamestown theoretically (based on pre-cip) stays at 85% capacity, but there is no way that sticks with all of the other Zone 1 schools reaching close to 100% capacity. That means APS will move additional families to Jamestown as they are able to, TBD from where. Maybe from Discovery?

So in 2026, if you are a North Arlington elementary student, you are probably just as likely to be rezoned as you are to stick with your current school.