Totally off for my DC - very high stats magnet kid, CS major.

CV has JMU listed as a safety for my in-state '24 kid with 3.9 weighted/test optional. That one doesn't really pass the sniff test for me, but everything else seems right. We'll see how it goes.

UMD is listed as a safety for my kid and I’d say it’s a target. I think they’ve overestimated chances for 2023 for UMD.

CV added more data this school year that seemed to make the predictors a bit more realistic imho.

CV does ask for intended major. However, I’m not sure what they consider in their chancing. I think they changed some stuff this year and this could be a piece of that but I don’t know. There’s some info in their forum from an employee.

It says the state flagship (UVA) is DC’s safety with 93% acceptance chance for the intended major. but people here said the school should be nobody’s safety. So, still confused.

Anonymous wrote:I’m curious, too. When I look at it for my almost rising senior from MCPS, I feel like it overestimates chances at some highly competitive SLACs like Middlebury and Wesleyan compared to our school’s Scattergrams, which show far less success. In contrast, I feel like some target percentiles for schools like Oberlin or F&M are too cautious, where everyone gets in from our school with my kid’s stats.

OP here: I was asking because it listed UMCP as a target and SUNY Binghamton as a High Target for my daughter who has no APs and want to apply to an engineering program, no SAT yet and it recommended applying test optimal. She has a 4.0 UW GPA but based on these boards she’s a degenerate imbecile who shouldn’t even dare to look at the UMCP campus from a car window.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:100% for my kid this admission cycle. Shocked.

So what cutoff did you use to decide you wanted to apply? I recall CV listing % probability of a kid getting in. Where was your cutoff?

PP...If he liked the school he applied regardless of chance. Simply made sure he had sufficient targets/safeties. Also had one rolling and applied EA where possible. No EDs.
Reach: 2 denials
Hard Target: 1 acceptance, 2 waitlist
Target/Safeties: 7 acceptances.

One item of note, I don't think CV differentiates for intended major/school. The school he ultimately chose was designated as a safety, but considering major, think Target was more appropriate.

Agree. My kid is HS class of 24. Wants to major in engineering, and is NOT a URM or first generation. College vine shows VT as a "safety" but I know for engineering, it's no one's safety.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:100% for my kid this admission cycle. Shocked.

So what cutoff did you use to decide you wanted to apply? I recall CV listing % probability of a kid getting in. Where was your cutoff?

PP...If he liked the school he applied regardless of chance. Simply made sure he had sufficient targets/safeties. Also had one rolling and applied EA where possible. No EDs.
Reach: 2 denials
Hard Target: 1 acceptance, 2 waitlist
Target/Safeties: 7 acceptances.

One item of note, I don't think CV differentiates for intended major/school. The school he ultimately chose was designated as a safety, but considering major, think Target was more appropriate.

My class of 2021 kid was rejected at some schools Collegevine designated as "safeties," Lehigh and Santa Clara (and possibly some others I don't recall at this moment). For context, this kid had high scores and mediocre grades. We were not surprised at the decisions.

Perhaps Collegevine has tweaked its formula since then. Test optional policies presumably weigh grades much more heavily than scores.

I’m curious, too. When I look at it for my almost rising senior from MCPS, I feel like it overestimates chances at some highly competitive SLACs like Middlebury and Wesleyan compared to our school’s Scattergrams, which show far less success. In contrast, I feel like some target percentiles for schools like Oberlin or F&M are too cautious, where everyone gets in from our school with my kid’s stats.

Anonymous wrote:100% for my kid this admission cycle. Shocked.

So what cutoff did you use to decide you wanted to apply? I recall CV listing % probability of a kid getting in. Where was your cutoff?

Pretty spot on for us too.

My DD was accepted to 4 of her reach schools, either accepted or waitlisted to her targets, and accepted to her safety schools. High stats kid.

100% for my kid this admission cycle. Shocked.

Pretty accurate.

If you used Collegevine, how accurate were its admissions predictions for your child?